When selling of course. Soon you'll be desperate wanting to sell to avoid the bear eating you up!

Leading the losers board today was Pan Africa Insurance (PAI), the stock declined by 6% or Sh2 to close at Sh30.20, the stock has lost almost 23% in July. Following PAI on the losers board today was Kenya Re, the stock declined by 5.2% to close at Sh8.05. 2011 will be a tough year for Kenyan Insurance stocks, since most of them derive their income from the NSE, in one of our research reports we carried here at Contrarian Investing Kenya, it was shown that apart from CIC Insurance almost all Insurance Companies we surveyed made underwriting losses thus leaving the bourse as their only source of income. I expect the high inflation which stood at 15% in June to slow insurance uptake and also negate any return from debt instruments whose return is around 9%

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I think that even with the anticipated fall in profits, people are going to make money from this IPO. Remember CFC Insurance Holdings & its listing? The analysis done on the share showed it as overpriced & it's almost double its introductory price as of now. The one share that everyone never trusted from the word go was TCL & it was all because of the type of investments made & some of the investors. Thus i still think their is some cash to be made here.

@cynic. What price do you hope to sell at?

@the deal. NSE is also not doing well.

The way this IPO has been trashed (I being in this camp) gives me a sneaky gut feeling that Mr Market will 100% defy all logic and rally this IPO?! Mr Market is a weird character and when you push the extremes he always tends to do the opposite... And based on the excess negativity & even brokers calling clients to participate, dont be shocked when you see a 100 - 300% rally??!
If the NSE will be on rebound in Aug, this thing will rally. If the US & Eurozone will have pulled off a houdini act in Aug & their debt crisis appears 'resolved', global markets will rally. So if this IPO finds a rebounding NSE & a global debt relief momentum expect it to have a huge sentiment rally and not fundamentally supported. At 50% gains I'd start exiting.

And what would be your stop loss level coz this could turn out either way

True, Hs. But like i said, there maybe naysayers but the britak ipo remains a good buy especially on the long run. all those issues of nse, US debt swap and others will pass. and for people not being able to buy insurance coz of inflation, the IMF has projected that inflation will go down as soon as rains come and food is available. With the current uncertainties in Europe and the US, dont expect fuel price to go high, thus inflation will go down further. insurance uptake will gradually rise bringing more business to the company and thus more earning, higher share price, dividends etc.

It has been said and said and said, over and over and over again, that Britak is not a long term buy and good reasons have been given. What new info do you have to offer to justify otherwise

Very poor uptake esp from retail investors. I personaly had more people asking me about the Co-op IPO which came at a worse time than this when the NSE was sub 3,400!
Wonder whether it will manage full subscription at this rate!