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THE MARKET AS I SEE IT
youcan'tstopusnow
#1 Posted : Saturday, July 30, 2011 6:50:22 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
CENTUM Closing trades were at 18.15 on Friday though VWAP 18.80. Aguytrying mentioned 15 bob. What I do know is that even in the low 20s, I viewed this stock as one hell of a bargain. Well, that didn't stop it from getting cheaper

KENGEN At 11.10. Though bids at 11.25 by closing. Probably getting beat down cause of the production levels going down? Could we see below 10.50?

UCHUMI Now at 10.05. Headed for sub 10? Could stay there for a while if it does. I think the euphoria for re-listing is dying down.

CFCIH Still above 10 bob? What can you say? It enjoys much more favorable valuations than the rest of the insurance industry. Why? Sijui

TRANNY At 42.75 now. Fickle volumes being traded. Down 14.5 percent from its introductory price of 50. Only 1 way I see it going. DOWN!

KENOLKOBIL At 11.75 though there is about 1 million shares on offer at 12. Wouldn't bet against it being taken out as other supply has been taken out. Just like Centum, still cheap at current prices. Ex-div, will go down. Though I don't think to the 9-10 levels. Unless U.S defaults. If it does go sub 10, well err.. VVS will throw a bash (I hope I'll be invited. VVS, I drink SPRITE!smile )

EQUITY BANK Will we see it at 27 again this year? Unless they go back to posting 70%+ growth in Q3, times are tough. Quarter on Quarter growth very weak. hisah says we will see it below 20. HFCK, Britak, and Equity are related in ways we all know how. 1 or both might give goodies at end year, if just to boost each other. Simplistic thinking? Well, it's just my thinking. Maybe I'll grab me some towards end year or early next year

KCB A high of 27 seems a long time ago. Results didn't excite the market. Share will probably follow Equity's.

ACCESS KENYA At 6.25. I think the next set of results will decide the fate of this company. If they record another loss and feed us with talk of "1 off expenses, next time will be better..." we could see it at sub 5(read Olympia territory) If anyone is interested in buying (the whole company I mean) it is getting cheaper. Their 'niche' in the corporate sector will become non-existent in 2 years though.

PANAFRICA INSURANCE Even taking into the account the 1:1 bonus, the counter seems to have shed too much at 30.25. Plus, performance won't vary too much this year. They did dispose of their stake in a local insurance. That should provide some income. And I think they still have some unsold real estate. Ama?

KENYA RE At 8.05. Just suffering like others in the 'bear'

KENYA AIRWAYS So frustrating for their shareholders. I don't envy them. This is a quote from one of them "KQ needs to fire ALL the staff. Sell the planes, land & equipment. Settle all loans. Pay the cash out as dividends. Shit the business." At 25 though, I would look up

EVEREADY There are over 10,000 registered Wazuans. What is the market cap of this company? How much will each need to contribute for us to buy? We can then change its name to Wazua Eveready. We could make the best condoms on the continent. DREAMS MONEY CAN BUY

Your thoughts...
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
holycow
#2 Posted : Saturday, July 30, 2011 7:24:52 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/11/2006
Posts: 972
Location: Home
Fairly thought out with some good humour. How aboutr KPLC. sub 18?
youcan'tstopusnow
#3 Posted : Saturday, July 30, 2011 7:30:26 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
holycow wrote:
Fairly thought out with some good humour. How aboutr KPLC. sub 18?


As we head towards elections and inflation continues to rise, anything is possible...
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
Sober
#4 Posted : Saturday, July 30, 2011 8:15:22 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
Good analysis bro...
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
Lolest!
#5 Posted : Saturday, July 30, 2011 8:58:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/18/2011
Posts: 12,069
Location: Kianjokoma
Wazua Eveready? Lol!
Laughing out loudly smile Applause d'oh! Sad Drool Liar Shame on you Pray
sparkly
#6 Posted : Saturday, July 30, 2011 9:12:21 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
@ycun where do you see nmg, scom, eabl, tps? Nmg seems to be in free fall. Am assembling an arsenal for a raid... The prices are so attractive.
Life is short. Live passionately.
youcan'tstopusnow
#7 Posted : Saturday, July 30, 2011 10:12:23 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
sparkly wrote:
@ycun where do you see nmg, scom, eabl, tps? Nmg seems to be in free fall. Am assembling an arsenal for a raid... The prices are so attractive.


Safcom? Let's wait for their next set of results. EABL? Do they have the cash to buy SABMillers 20% stake? Is talk of reduced dividend on point?

To be honest though, I feel that you understand the above counters much more than I do. I actually haven't looked at them that much for the past few weeks thus not really aware of the price movements

But I think fundamentals isn't really the issue here. Many counters are "very attractive" as you say. Moving in now might be too soon, in my opinion

Wacha wale wanaenda The Hague warudi tuone kutaendaje kwanza...
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
VituVingiSana
#8 Posted : Saturday, July 30, 2011 11:49:35 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,224
Location: Nairobi
Honored to be named/quoted twice!

BTW, I meant 'shut' (not shit) the business!

On KK, I remain bullish. Simple reason. It is a well-run business!
On KQ, 'cheap' but the Management does not care! They are not shareholders like KK's management!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
youcan'tstopusnow
#9 Posted : Sunday, July 31, 2011 12:05:34 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
VituVingiSana wrote:


BTW, I meant 'shut' (not shit) the business!


Well, you certainly would be forgiven for meaning the latter...
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
Cde Monomotapa
#10 Posted : Sunday, July 31, 2011 6:50:12 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:


BTW, I meant 'shut' (not shit) the business!


Well, you certainly would be forgiven for meaning the latter...

"UKIONA WAO!"
Aguytrying
#11 Posted : Sunday, July 31, 2011 7:43:54 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@ycun. Nice Review, depicting current status. For centum it will slide further, ex bonus is merciless. Look at dtb,jub, pan africa. I believe the first two have found their bottom for now. I looked at the charts for the last few months of most n.s.e companies. I noticed that the only shares that have maintained their share price or increase and those that had interims and a few other outliers. So i believe kk will also fall after book closure. What are you views on britak ipo?
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
hisah
#12 Posted : Sunday, July 31, 2011 10:50:45 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
VituVingiSana wrote:

On KQ, 'cheap' but the Management does not care! They are not shareholders like KK's management!

This why I stated sometime back, KQ will hit sub 30. Add in rights and it gets more funky. Oil price charts point to another rally Sad
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
VituVingiSana
#13 Posted : Sunday, July 31, 2011 10:52:06 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,224
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:

On KQ, 'cheap' but the Management does not care! They are not shareholders like KK's management!

This why I stated sometime back, KQ will hit sub 30. Add in rights and it gets more funky. Oil price charts point to another rally Sad
My stake is KQ is matched/countered by my KK ;-)
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
youcan'tstopusnow
#14 Posted : Sunday, July 31, 2011 11:44:41 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Aguytrying wrote:
@ycun. Nice Review, depicting current status. For centum it will slide further, ex bonus is merciless. Look at dtb,jub, pan africa. I believe the first two have found their bottom for now. I looked at the charts for the last few months of most n.s.e companies. I noticed that the only shares that have maintained their share price or increase and those that had interims and a few other outliers. So i believe kk will also fall after book closure. What are you views on britak ipo?


Everyone I know who's putting money in Britak is not in it for the 'long term' but plans to dash out after a few days. That sentiment has been said before in Wazua. Sasa kama kila mtu anafikiria hivyo...

What about institutional investors? Do you know any who are putting their money in Britak?

And did I read right that SIB is projecting a profit of Kshs. 29 Million for FY 2011?

I'll stay out. But when things get thick and a profit warning is announced I'll watch the price action...
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
young
#15 Posted : Sunday, July 31, 2011 2:13:38 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,048
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
consider KPLC at below the rights price.
Below 19 bob is very good.
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
youcan'tstopusnow
#16 Posted : Monday, August 01, 2011 9:24:38 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Market almost open. Let's see how the week goes
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
the deal
#17 Posted : Monday, August 01, 2011 9:32:46 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
young wrote:
consider KPLC at below the rights price.
Below 19 bob is very good.

YBC would have been proud to see where KPLC is todayLaughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
youcan'tstopusnow
#18 Posted : Monday, August 01, 2011 9:54:31 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
the deal wrote:
young wrote:
consider KPLC at below the rights price.
Below 19 bob is very good.

YBC would have been proud to see where KPLC is todayLaughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

Call it the prophecy coming to pass...
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
bartum
#19 Posted : Monday, August 01, 2011 10:27:03 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/11/2010
Posts: 1,011
Location: nairobi
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
the deal wrote:
young wrote:
consider KPLC at below the rights price.
Below 19 bob is very good.

YBC would have been proud to see where KPLC is todayLaughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

Call it the prophecy coming to pass...

coming to pass a year later
2012
#20 Posted : Monday, August 01, 2011 10:33:07 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Unless U.S defaults.


As was expected, they reached an agreement so no defaulting and Obama is back on course on his re-election strategy.

I can see you've steered clear the agricultural and manufacturing sectors in your analysis, any reason?

BBI will solve it
:)
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