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KCB HY 2011 results are here!
Mainat
#61 Posted : Friday, July 29, 2011 7:52:58 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
KCB is unlikely to ever overtake Equity on profitability because Equity is more a nimble, innovative player. Infact the greatest danger to Equity? The JM factor because he still hasn't found a real successor apart from Mary Wamae and she is an administrator not an entrepreneur.
Sehemu ndio nyumba
erifloss
#62 Posted : Friday, July 29, 2011 8:41:05 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
kenyainvestor wrote:
young wrote:
kenyainvestor wrote:
young wrote:
@kenyainvestor / other experts

Let me ask again, why does NSE reckon with PBT rather than PAT.? It is the only market I invest in that believes so much in PBT.
I think PAT is the key as it dictates the EPS.

Any thoughts or just the kenyan way ?


Does KCB and Equity get taxed at the same rate?

In 2005, the Kenya Government agreed to reduce the level of taxation
to 20% for a period of 5 years for any company that chose to list. This was done to encourage listing at the NSE. Equity listed in 2006.

Thus until next year, we cannot compare these two on Profit After Tax


Thanks for the explanation, let me set out to read the analysis in your blog.


Thanks @young. Though I would feel better if I am backed up by other Wazuans on my observationsmile

@Kenyaninvestor, its true. It was an incentive put up to attract more companies to list thus comparing KCB & EB on PBT is better off than PAT. What i'm not yet sure about is if the rate EB was using ended in the last financial period or will end during this financial period as i'm not sure whether a co. starts to use the rate on the financial period in the year of listing or the next.
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
the deal
#63 Posted : Friday, July 29, 2011 9:45:36 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
KCB full year PAT will only be up by 13% to stand at Sh8 Billion and thus trail Equity who I project to do between Sh8.5-9 Billion
selah
#64 Posted : Friday, July 29, 2011 10:36:17 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
The reasons why KCB might never overtake Equity:

1.KCB is too conservative and rigid they take alot of time to respond to market needs and when they do it takes alot of time to take off take for instance mobile banking Iam sure we have KCB customers who dont even know its linked to MPESA.Agency banking they partners with posta which to me does not add any value since if you look at postas outlet distribution its the same as KCB and he working hrs are slightly the same.

2.KCB has never shed its elitist tag even when their strategy to target SME takes shape.I have dealt with both KCB and Equity and their management styles are totally different whereas Equity will mingle freely with its customers even visiting customer premises and homes to have a clear understanding of their loan applicants KCB rely solely with the audited accounts and bank account history...which to me makes them disconnect with their target customers.

3.KCB has one of the slowest service in the country it takes several minutes to serve a single client am sure if KCB had the same number of customers as Equity service will come to a stand still...I think they need to work on their customer turn around time.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
kenyainvestor
#65 Posted : Friday, July 29, 2011 11:41:58 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/12/2011
Posts: 194
Mainat wrote:
KCB is unlikely to ever overtake Equity on profitability because Equity is more a nimble, innovative player. Infact the greatest danger to Equity? The JM factor because he still hasn't found a real successor apart from Mary Wamae and she is an administrator not an entrepreneur.


@Mainat, Equity Bank is certainly more agile

As Equity continues its relentless expansion into other African territories, I doubt James Mwangi will be as 'hands on' as he is now.

@erifloss, I think this is the last year of the tax incentives
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kenyainvestor
#66 Posted : Friday, July 29, 2011 11:49:39 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/12/2011
Posts: 194
young wrote:
@Kenyainvestor,

I have fully digested your H1 KCB results analysis. I fully agree with you in most areas in principles.

But looking forward on the flat board I expect Equity to outperform KCB at FY 2011, though the absolute profit margin difference will almost thin out. I predict the table will turn to the advantage of KCB in FY 2012.

On the dividend yield which is of much interest to me, for FY 2011 I expect a 1.50 dividend from KCB (20% above 2010) and 1.20 (50% above 2010) dividend from Equity.


@young, I wouldn't be so bold as to predict that KCB will perform better than Equity from 2012. As, @VituVingiSana says, Equity will also be growing.

You say you bought KCB at an equivalent price of 5.1/=. Excellent for you!Applause But for those who are starting to invest now, would you still advise them to pick KCB over Equity?

Getting the Cost:Income ratio to 50% might take more than the 18 months you state, even if we consider the 1 billion rise in staff costs to be a one off
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gmg
#67 Posted : Friday, July 29, 2011 12:49:15 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/17/2009
Posts: 201
JM said that they have 2300 agents transacting 20% of the EBL transactions whereas KCB has only 700 agents to date.NOW wazuans dont you think Equity is restructuring its business better and quickly than KCB? EBL does not need to hire more staffs and its presence will be felt in every corner of this country, Wait for Equity to replicate its agency banking in other countries like uganda, rwanda and tanzania it will be miles ahed of KCB
selah
#68 Posted : Friday, July 29, 2011 1:34:15 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
@gmg Replicating agency banking in other countries will depend on their regulatory framework.

Here in Kenya,Equity agency banking is spreading like bush fire, actually I think it posses a serious threat to safaricom Mpesa network.

Funny KCB has not registered any price movement while supply outstrip demand the market was not impressed by the results or The bear is lurking.





'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
Hunderwear
#69 Posted : Friday, July 29, 2011 2:06:23 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/14/2011
Posts: 639
Anybody seeing this counter sub 20 before september?
gmg
#70 Posted : Friday, July 29, 2011 2:27:18 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/17/2009
Posts: 201
Agency banking will be replicated every where coz Kenya sets the pace for other countries in East Africa. to know the impact of EQUITY Agency visit the coutry side
mkonomtupu
#71 Posted : Friday, July 29, 2011 2:48:15 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
for those of us who have been in KCB for long, and given it capital in the rights issue over and over the results are disappointing, we've waited for KCB like an old house-wife to cook better food, to lose weight, be stylish to no avail. I've now put up half of my holding for sale nataka mpango wa kando. right now there are a lot of good bargains and I'm now looking for companies and brands that connect with the younger emerging middle-class
young
#72 Posted : Saturday, July 30, 2011 1:44:16 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,048
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
@Kenyainvestor,

If I am to choose btw KCB and member, I will go for KCB but at a lower price cira 20bob

(i) The Equity biz model on SME from my point of view is not sustainable on the long term. It will rise NPL profile because unfortunately SMEs tend to have a high failure rate. I understabd equity gives loans to buy matatus and taxi cabs !

(2) On regional expansion to grow profits KCB is well ahead, the regional branches have turned from loss, break even position to profitability. Be aware that regional expansion is always at a cost. My Nigerian Bank UBA return losses in Uganda and Kenya, that does not mean it will not be profitable. Ecobank that is now a success had a similar experience. I do not think Equity will be different.

However I do not have any plan in my life time to buy either KCB or Equity shares. With 39,500 units in KCB and 10,000 units of Equity I am sitting on as my holder in your NSE I am okay with that. This returned a handsome dividend of Ksh51,000.

Please do not be suprised about 39,500 holdings it is because of 10 for 1 split in 2006.
I only got 2600 units it it balooned to 26,000 units.

I did not even participate in the last KCB rights as I rather picked some KPLC.
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
young
#73 Posted : Saturday, July 30, 2011 1:45:51 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,048
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
@Kenyainvestor,

If I am to choose btw KCB and member, I will go for KCB but at a lower price cira 20bob

(i) The Equity biz model on SME from my point of view is not sustainable on the long term. It will rise NPL profile because unfortunately SMEs tend to have a high failure rate. I understabd equity gives loans to buy matatus and taxi cabs !

(2) On regional expansion to grow profits KCB is well ahead, the regional branches have turned from loss, break even position to profitability. Be aware that regional expansion is always at a cost. My Nigerian Bank UBA return losses in Uganda and Kenya, that does not mean it will not be profitable. Ecobank that is now a success had a similar experience. I do not think Equity will be different.

However I do not have any plan in my life time to buy either KCB or Equity shares. With 39,500 units in KCB and 10,000 units of Equity I am sitting on as my holder in your NSE I am okay with that. This returned a handsome dividend of Ksh51,000.

Please do not be suprised about 39,500 holdings it is because of 10 for 1 split in 2006.
I only got 2600 units it it balooned to 26,000 units.

I did not even participate in the last KCB rights as I rather picked some KPLC.
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
young
#74 Posted : Saturday, July 30, 2011 1:47:28 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,048
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
@Kenyainvestor,

If I am to choose btw KCB and member, I will go for KCB but at a lower price cira 20bob

(i) The Equity biz model on SME from my point of view is not sustainable on the long term. It will consistently NPL profile because unfortunately SMEs tend to have a high failure rate. I understand equity gives loans to buy matatus and taxi cabs !

(2) On regional expansion to grow profits KCB is well ahead, the regional branches have turned from loss, break even position to profitability. Be aware that regional expansion is always at a cost. My Nigerian Bank UBA return losses in Uganda and Kenya, that does not mean it will not be profitable. Ecobank that is now a success had a similar experience. I do not think Equity will be different.

However I do not have any plan in my life time to buy either KCB or Equity shares. With 39,500 units in KCB and 10,000 units of Equity I am sitting on as part of my holding in your NSE I am okay with that. This returned a handsome dividend of Ksh 51,000 out of ksh 243,000 dividend income realised to date in 2011.
Mind you I started small and consistently from 2004.

Please do not be suprised about 39,500 holdings it is because of 10 for 1 split in 2006.
I only got 2600 units then it balooned to 26,000 units.

I did not even participate in the last KCB rights as I rather picked some KPLC to avoid
over exposure to banking stocks, because as I role I do not intent to hold more than 20% of my portfolio in the financial sector.

Call it my 2 cents no problem. Bear in mind that I am a non resident investor and income (high dividend yield stocks) is my principal investment objective in NSE
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
kenyainvestor
#75 Posted : Saturday, July 30, 2011 2:18:12 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/12/2011
Posts: 194
young wrote:


(2) On regional expansion to grow profits KCB is well ahead, the regional branches have turned from loss, break even position to profitability.



What exactly are you trying to say here?

In the latest half year results, the following were the profits generated from regional subsidiaries:

Equity Bank - 622,601,000
KCB - 319,890,000
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kenyainvestor
#76 Posted : Saturday, July 30, 2011 2:21:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/12/2011
Posts: 194
@young, I am aware that investing for dividends is your game
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Aguytrying
#77 Posted : Saturday, July 30, 2011 2:58:27 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@young. I know your stance of max 20% in financials. Why is this your stance? Its so hard to resist financials esp over the last 2 yrs.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
For Sport
#78 Posted : Saturday, July 30, 2011 3:43:44 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 12/23/2010
Posts: 1,229
Aguytrying wrote:
@young. I know your stance of max 20% in financials. Why is this your stance? Its so hard to resist financials esp over the last 2 yrs.


he explained why here:
http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...spx?g=posts&t=10101
ali
#79 Posted : Saturday, July 30, 2011 9:01:35 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/11/2008
Posts: 892
Hello good wazuans. Any update on thuo and title deeds? Called them leo. Was informed titles will be ready by sep/oct. Any new dvpts?
For in him (Jesus) we live and move and have our being-Acts 17:28
Cde Monomotapa
#80 Posted : Saturday, July 30, 2011 10:31:14 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
kenyainvestor wrote:
young wrote:


(2) On regional expansion to grow profits KCB is well ahead, the regional branches have turned from loss, break even position to profitability.



What exactly are you trying to say here?

In the latest half year results, the following were the profits generated from regional subsidiaries:

Equity Bank - 622,601,000
KCB - 319,890,000

For the Subs to make 300M profit in H1, they 1st pulled out of a 1.2B loss over H1 2010. Thus, in essence the KCB subs made 1.5B.
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