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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Mainat wrote:On sentiments, NSE is not oversold. On forward looking fundamentals, it is not oversold. On speculative trading, its oversold. Take your pick. I hope the term fast trades makes it clear as speculative trading. The market is still far away from the dark sentiments in Jan 2009 that led to a fat tail - fundies disconnect (oversell). Still yet to get that stage where you buy in trailer loads and go on holiday. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@hisah. Do you see any other possible scenarios playing out, apart from the n.s.e ending up at 3000 points next year. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Aguytrying wrote:@hisah. Do you see any other possible scenarios playing out, apart from the n.s.e ending up at 3000 points next year. Why & how please.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Aguytrying wrote:@hisah. Do you see any other possible scenarios playing out, apart from the n.s.e ending up at 3000 points next year. The current setup is bearish.
Unless NSE regains the 4400pt handle backed by good buy volume, selling pressure will persist. Fundies - a bullish inflation due to food costs, drought & fuel plus a weak Ksh just makes the sell cocktail potent. Politics - ocampo, extradictions, anglo fleecing et al; too much going on. A clue less CBK & out of sorts gubberment treasury policies is also making things dicey. Constant IMF GDP upgrades just dont help the outlook. Who needs their input while it is evident the surface is wet and can be clearly seen.
Global fundies - MENA unrest, eurozone debt issues & US debt drama all add to a potent cocktail.
Indeed a partly spooked wanjiku & foreigners... But the spooky theme at the moment is not as bad as during GFC. But should one country in europe snap (default), you know what to do...
A US default would make things... there are no words for it...$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:
The current setup is bearish.
Unless NSE regains the 4400pt handle backed by good buy volume, selling pressure will persist. Fundies - a bullish inflation due to food costs, drought & fuel plus a weak Ksh just makes the sell cocktail potent. Politics - ocampo, extradictions, anglo fleecing et al; too much going on. A clue less CBK & out of sorts gubberment treasury policies is also making things dicey. Constant IMF GDP upgrades just dont help the outlook. Who needs their input while it is evident the surface is wet and can be clearly seen.
Global fundies - MENA unrest, eurozone debt issues & US debt drama all add to a potent cocktail.
Indeed a partly spooked wanjiku & foreigners... But the spooky theme at the moment is not as bad as during GFC. But should one country in europe snap (default), you know what to do...
A US default would make things... there are no words for it...
@hisah all these factors you mention and yet the EA economy and corporate profits continue powering ahead like its all rosy and nothing is happening... This is the time to BUY BUY BUY!!!!! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/27/2007 Posts: 3,604
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You know the NSE has bottomed out when eveready is the share with the highest gain. African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@Guru - You have stated the same earnings strength countless times and I have answered them. Mr Market has not been interested since Nov 2010. Can we move on to something else like aussie & swissie hedges or gold and silver. As u state, buy now. Tho this is a short term relief bounce. For speculators, good luck. For long term, not yet. The bearish sentiments are still not at a psychology extreme. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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@Hisah the Sell off we have experienced on banks since 1Q was just smart money factoring in the slow down in earning's growth I.e there were massive Volumes in member around the 25-27 Sh range.
With CBK leaving the repo rate unchanged at 6.25% lets pick inflation at 22% by year end..and the Shilling maybe at a century against the USD...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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hisah wrote:the deal wrote:@hisah correction; on RSI the NSE has been gravely oversold for the past 2 month...well KK shook off some of those overbought levels...we were once at 12bob before we crashed to 10 something levels...the market never anticipated 80%+ or an interim dividend...i was calling for a dividend because after looking at their cash flow statement...KK was sitting on alot of free cash...so even a 1 bob ID was possible just from FY 2010. Just like the banks announcing last year super results & Q1 glossy results, they still got sold. KK will experience the same in coming weeks. Money has already been made. Buy the rumour, sell the news... I have been thinking about your statement on KK,i studied the chart. its the bitter truth but its true. the reason the price was pushed up is because they knew about the ID, a 50% growth alone cant move anything in this current market. look at HFCK 70 something odd percent and it didnt even twitch.........they knew......... The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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We are in a Bear Market...the sell off has some fundamentals to it...the economy is not doing well...unlike what the politicians wants u to believe...economy slowed down greatly in the 2Q and inflation will keep slowing it down...
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Ksh wrote:CBK holding interest rates at 6.25% is not helping my case as an admired EA currency... I'm destined to head to 100/- per USD and will also post weakens to:- a)EURKES to around 140 b)GPBUSD around 160 c)JPYKES around 120 d)CHFKES around 130 e)AUDKES around 120 Oh my dear 2nd hand car dealers, metal dealers, food imports, industrials, other importers etc, I wish you all the best since I cannot stem the tide of the yen and the dollar since my policy makers aka central planners are sleeping on the job  Yours Truly, Ksh aka KES... @Kizee1 - Pole sana, the USDKES @90 was blasphemy then and it about to get even more blasphemous!? Civil unrest, you will see and Mr Market sees this too and cares less about the EA fundamentals @Kinuthia aka KK - I am so hoping your USDKES @120/- call does not come true    $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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the deal wrote:We are in a Bear Market...the sell off has some fundamentals to it...the economy is not doing well...unlike what the politicians wants u to believe...economy slowed down greatly in the 2Q and inflation will keep slowing it down... SOARING Corporate profits + 5% economic growth.. What do the politicians have to do with this?? Inflation will continue to soar as a result of the drought but it cannot stop the momentum... The NSE is selling off simply because of worried foreigners and poor kenyans. Not because any fundamental problems with the companies.. All this = One fat buying opportunity!!! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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The NSE20 continued its bounce for the 2nd day, the benchmark NSE20 gained 11.56 points or 0.31% to close at 3769.45. On the Forex front the shilling further lost ground to the green buck, in fact the last time I checked it was trading at 91.15 against the USD. CBK left its repo rate unchanged yesterday which I think to me was a bad decision, I expect the Shilling to keep weakening against the USD which in tandem will push imported inflation to alarming proportions. Read more here http://www.contrarianinv...ow-shilling-weakens.html
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/27/2007 Posts: 3,604
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@guru267. I agree with you that it is now that prices are low. The question is, has the market bottomed out? F it can sink further then i should wait an even get better bargains. African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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3700 proving tough to breach...if we breach it I see 3500 being the short term support for the NSE20.
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/2/2011 Posts: 629 Location: Nai
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Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:the deal wrote:@hisah correction; on RSI the NSE has been gravely oversold for the past 2 month...well KK shook off some of those overbought levels...we were once at 12bob before we crashed to 10 something levels...the market never anticipated 80%+ or an interim dividend...i was calling for a dividend because after looking at their cash flow statement...KK was sitting on alot of free cash...so even a 1 bob ID was possible just from FY 2010. Just like the banks announcing last year super results & Q1 glossy results, they still got sold. KK will experience the same in coming weeks. Money has already been made. Buy the rumour, sell the news... I have been thinking about your statement on KK,i studied the chart. its the bitter truth but its true. the reason the price was pushed up is because they knew about the ID, a 50% growth alone cant move anything in this current market. look at HFCK 70 something odd percent and it didnt even twitch.........they knew......... The question of why NSE companies post stellar growth and the share price fails to respond has been debated ad infinitum on Wazua. I have pondered the question a lot and developed an hypothesis. Investors on the NSE seem to expect that most listed companies will either go regional, grow inorganically through acquisitions, or organically through reinvestment. This thinking is actually supported by recent investments by EABL in Serengeti Breweries, Kenol Kobil's Africa expansion, Scangroups forays into the continent, Safaricom's regular investments to updgrage her network, Equity & KCB Banks' regional expansion etc. In summary, one of the assumptions of the perfect/free market hypothesis (that all players in the market have perfect information), and the expectations theory, to a large extent determines the actions of players on the NSE. Kenya=country in growth stage with a lot of focuse on the region and therefore companies are no longer willing to pay the huge dividends of yester year. As an investor, this kind of news is welcome. As a trader (day trader), selection of stocks for short term gains becomes more complicated, but not impossible
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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accelriskconsult wroteKenya=country in growth stage with a lot of focuse on the region and therefore companies are no longer willing to pay the huge dividends of yester yearOPINIONHowever on the contrary Kenya top companies are one of the best dividend paying companies in Sub Saharan africa using the universal yard stick of 5% dividend yield. I can name a few :- KCB BBK BAT SAFCOM BOC BAMBURI KK KPLC ETC ETC http://allafrica.com/stories/201104060069.html
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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Sober wrote:@guru267. I agree with you that it is now that prices are low. The question is, has the market bottomed out? F it can sink further then i should wait an even get better bargains. If any wazuan perceives himself as a prophet, soothsayer, witchdoctor or fortune teller then by all means wait for the bottom.. Otherwise I know a lot of people(wazuans included) who saw JUBILEE at 165bob and were sitting waiting for it to go to 120...  Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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The NSE20 gained 5 points or 0.41% in today's session to close at 3738. the NSE20 is Sub Saharan Africa's worst performing market in the month of July according to data provided by Bloomberg. Investors have shunned stocks in favor of debt instruments such as T-bills and Government bonds whose return is around 9%, inflation which stood at 15% in June is the main catalyst for investor apathy at the NSE. The shilling was slightly stronger against the green buck in today's session, in fact the last time i checked it was trading at 91 against the USD. CBK left its repo rate unchanged on Wednesday. Read more here http://www.contrarianinv...g-slightly-stronger.html
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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[quote=the deal]The NSE20 gained 5 points or 0.41% in today's session to close at 3738. the NSE20 is Sub Saharan Africa's worst performing market in the month of July according to data provided by Bloomberg. Investors have shunned stocks in favor of debt instruments such as T-bills and Government bonds whose return is around 9%, inflation which stood at 15% in June is the main catalyst for investor apathy at the NSE. The shilling was slightly stronger against the green buck in today's session, in fact the last time i checked it was trading at 91 against the USD. CBK left its repo rate unchanged on Wednesday. Read more here http://www.contrarianinv...-slightly-stronger.html[/quote] Ah, more bad news pimping by the media 
Buy bad news. Sell good news. Doesn't make sense does it
Here is an example which you can use to relate with the news and volume spreads.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0aXIE-2BbeA
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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