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KenolKobil first HY 2011 pretax profit up 86%
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,224 Location: Nairobi
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Iborian wrote:Another interesting thing to think about. KK made a lot of money from the arbitrage opportunities arising from increasing product prices on the local market.
Being the smart guys they are, walikikisha, they had sufficient inventory ahead of the controlled price increases.
Kwenda mbele, can this continue at the same rate? Serikali will be on them, au siyo? KK was smart to load up on cheap inventory so is being smart (in a clean way) a crime? NOCK gives away 90mn to Prisko. Plus imports pricey diesel. That is stupid. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,224 Location: Nairobi
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@stocksmaster has been consistently behind KK. I believe we have been vindicated. Heck, I would be happy if the price did not rise tomorrow! Why? I wanna buy more! Forget Britak, TransCentury or Bank of Kigali coz I am invested in Rwanda thru KK...! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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VituVingiSana wrote:@stocksmaster has been consistently behind KK. I believe we have been vindicated. Heck, I would be happy if the price did not rise tomorrow! Why? I wanna buy more!
Forget Britak, TransCentury or Bank of Kigali coz I am invested in Rwanda thru KK...! KK has been trading below 11 bob for the past 2 weeks...the time to buy has passed...with an interim dividend...let it rally...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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When is book closure anyone? EA cables rallied 16 percent on a 30cts dividend, from 12-13.50. A few weeks ago. Sasini also got jolted by an ID from 10.00 to around 12.00. Was it two months ago. And these aint at kk's level. Last Share traded was at 13.13, i think due to announcement. Let her go....... The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/12/2011 Posts: 194
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Interesting to see at what price the opening bids will be tomorrow
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/27/2008 Posts: 3,760
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cnn wrote: The one and only J.Segman live on CNBC tomorrow at 1.40pm,make a date. Charles Njogu, put this interview on the website, like you did with the AGM.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/27/2008 Posts: 3,760
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Renegade wrote:@Iborian. Worse still would be for International oil prices to tumble at a time like this with 20 billion in stocks. It happened to them before and they made quite a loss. Hope they learnt a good lesson. With price controls, the Govt has in effect hedged KK against this risk as purchases are done only once at the beginning of the month and costs factored into the ERC formula and retail prices guaranteed regardless of volatility in the world market.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/27/2008 Posts: 3,760
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I have been looking at the numbers.
Real cash was 4B, against a negative position the previous year. Good.
As at the end of the period KK had borrowed 20B. Finance costs for the period were 1.3B, meaning a finance cost of roughly 6%. Good
Accounts Receivable went down to 7.7B from 11B, meaning they are collecting their debts sooner. Good.
They were sitting on cash of 10B, probably why the finance costs are lower. Good.
I'm not able to decipher if any exchange gains have been recognized as income, with the depreciation of the shilling. Could be bad.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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good review. In your estimate of 2011 full yr, you put net profit at 2.87b. While half year net profit as at now is 2.1b. Meaning u predict they will make 0.7b in H2. Ie less than 50 percent of H1. Why is this? The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Mah8r hawakosi. How can KK make so much money? Coz it can.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Mah8r hawakosi. How can KK make so much money? Coz it can.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2009 Posts: 2,863
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stocksmaster wrote:I must say that the half year results are beyond my wildest expectations.
A net profit of Ksh 2.157B means a half year EPS of Ksh 1.34 after the 140M shares ESOP (hope Wazuans can now appreciate the power of employee motivation and impact of making employees stakeholders in a business).
Management has indicated that projected 2nd half 2011 will be stronger than 2nd half 2010. This means an EPS of > Ksh 0.41 for second half; and hence an EPS of > Ksh 1.75 for 2011.
Even if the market continues valuing the share at a P/E of 9, this points to a target price of (Ksh 1.75 x 9)= Ksh 15.75 for March 2012.
By paying an interim dividend of Ksh 0.57 (for 6 months trading)which is almost 10% higher than the 12 months trading dividend (Ksh 0.52) for last year; the company is demonstrating that it has confidence of a very good 2nd half 2011.
I forsee a bonus issue of 1:5 with final year results and a final dividend of Ksh 0.43 to bring the 2011 dividend payment to Ksh 1.00. Remember the reason for increasing the number of shares was given as both for the ESOP and to increase the trading of KK shares(Increase market Liquidity). After the ESOP allocation of 140M, the total issued shares becomes abt 1.612B,thus 388M shares are left. This makes a 1:5 bonus feasible.
Having bought a huge holding (in the hundreds of thousands)of KK for my long term portfolio in early this year at average of about Ksh 10, i am impressed by the return on investment. In less than six months of holding, the share is returning a dividend of Ksh 0.52 + Ksh 0.57 = Ksh 1.09 and a further capital gain of at least Ksh 1.00.
It therefore begs the question 'What do those people shooting KK down have in their portfolio?'
It will be interesting to see what this share will be trading at Early 2013 after the elections are done and dusted and if this growth momentum is maintained, I wouldn't be surprised if it will be in the Ksh 20s.
I rarely give a Strong Buy recommendation to a share, but thats exactly how i rate KK at a price below Ksh 12.50.
Happy hunting. When the Master talks, its only a fool who can ignore him. IF YOU EXPECT ME TO POST ANYTHING POSITIVE ABOUT ASENO, YOU MAY AS WELL SIT ON A PIN
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/27/2008 Posts: 4,114
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Kweli; hesabu ni ngumu!! Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/29/2011 Posts: 257
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 he he he  "All intelligent investing is value investing -- acquiring more than you are paying for. You must value the business in order to value the stock." - Charlie Munger.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/30/2010 Posts: 1,635
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I thought this share will rise above 10 % today...but so far it has only risen by 6%
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Looking a bit further it confirms that ESOPs are the way to go. Look @ SA and all its Unions problems, nkt!! (or here with KQ). With a successful ESOP then employee expectations & objectives are directly linked to the companies progress!!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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FUNKY wrote:I thought this share will rise above 10 % today...but so far it has only risen by 6% I prefer a smooth gradual growth curve  nets in new buyers at each stage hence support bases ;-)
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 10/26/2010 Posts: 34 Location: Nairobi
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:FUNKY wrote:I thought this share will rise above 10 % today...but so far it has only risen by 6% I prefer a smooth gradual growth curve nets in new buyers at each stage hence support bases ;-) Very true, if it gains say 3% each day, for like 5 days continuous, now that will be awesome! I should have gone in 100%, and not just 20%...sigh..oh well win some, lose some! Jamaa wa mjengo
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:Looking a bit further it confirms that ESOPs are the way to go. Look @ SA and all its Unions problems, nkt!! (or here with KQ). With a successful ESOP then employee expectations & objectives are directly linked to the companies progress!! In Kenya people work for peanuts...ask those KQ ground staff how much they're paid n u will be shocked...a Vet Doc after spending 5 yrs in Uni gets paid 50K in Kenya while in Namibia the later will pocket around 400K. In SA its all about overpaid lazy workers wanting more money...overall ESOPS are good they bring a sense of ownership among staff...i'm sure morale levels are sky high among JIS troops.
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/5/2010 Posts: 335 Location: Nairobi
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Got some avg. under 11.00. If i can net 20% in under 4weeks will be happy (enough to sell half the lot @13.50). Will always buy if under 12 & I can get cash. It a win/win: If it goes back to 10 i'm happy, if it goes to 15 i'm happy. @VVS, i bow down to your awesomeness! A word of caution though, keep your ear to the ground, don't "fall in love"... if (God forbid) it tanks one day... Again, I bow down to your awesomeness! "I'd rather be lucky than clever... every time!" - ME
"The problem is not what we don't know... it's what we know for sure that just ain't!" - MARK TWAIN
"Space we can recover... time never!" - NAPOLEON BONAPARTE
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KenolKobil first HY 2011 pretax profit up 86%
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