Those of the way of the "We" LL

How do you come out and say such a thing as "the majority of investors at the NSE don't know what they are doing?"
the deal, ulifanya research?

Genghis Khan, hiyo theory ya NSE falls in January because of "School Fees" tulikataa. How many of the NSE investors are parents? If we know the percentage of investors who are parents with school-going children is when we can say for sure. Until then hiyo ni porojo...

Downside target levels for the NSE index.
Short term 3600 - 3700 (3wks - 6wks)
Mid term 3200 - 3400 (2mths - 5mths)
Long term 2800 - 3000 (6mths onwards).

Since the index is currently oversold, rebound target is 3800 - 3900 short term also likely to be supported by earnings reports esp from banks. The index fell thru this supportl (3900) like a knife, this is now solid resistance with a lot of sellers trapped. At this rebound level expect selling. If indeed the bounce hits 4000 (unlikely), sellers pressure will increase. Then the index slide aiming the bounce floor down to 3400 ensues.

At 3200 - 3400, the rebound aims 3600 -3700 level.

If the elliot wave count (5 down) is correct, sellers fatigue will most likely stop at 2700 - 2800 levels. Look for large volumes below 3000 from smart money. You'll notice with ease since at this level small daily volumes will be moving the market in a sickly fashion.

This is just my view on the current bear setup. Smart may decide to create a floor now or lower. But my gut feeling is from 3000 down, PPT (plunge protection team) will step in. ATS will be 'failing' at times Or at times trading ends early (suspended) or trading starts late. PPT masters should know of a term called circuit breakers (CB). They should get the ATS vendors to implement this rather than ATS 'failing'

Therefore from 3000 below expect the down pressure to lessen as the index flattens ready for a large bounce from all the extreme selling since 4400 broke down. KE and EA fundamental are rosier than the 1st world by far, so this is a generous buying opportunity tho in small doses for those solid bluechips which deliver dividends.

When the bull reversal starts, I will start another thread on the bull targets. As @youcant once said, I track the index.
Why no index trading?

Watch our NSE Index, figure today, 3777, and the date, and note it down. Could very well be our lowest in months. I could be wrong!
I'm reminded of Sept 15th 2008, a BLACK MONDAY, where stocks fell by 777 points, pushing the Dow below the psychological barrier of 11,000 points following LB filing for bankruptcy and BoA and AIG staring at the same!

The NSE has moved up a notch today - NSE 20 Index Up 20.72 points to close at 3777.41. All Share Index Up 0.17 points to close at 85.57.

That is of course still nothing to get excited about since the overall trend seems rather tepid.

That notwithstanding, there are still chances to trade this market. Of the counters that I bought into last week, I have now exited Cables and divested of most of my Coop. I made about 10% net on Cables and a net of 40 cts per share on Coop. I am still holding onto Equity (awaiting results on Monday), KenGen & NIC.

I am currently underwater on NIC and Equity but I hope next week brings good tidings. KenGen is moving along fine.

And safcom trades 98 million shares. I am pretty scared because i dont know what to expect.