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What drives Kenya's Economy?
subzero
#1 Posted : Friday, June 24, 2011 12:02:22 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/10/2008
Posts: 365
From the basic economic knowledge i know, a country's economic growth depends on its ability to produce and export goods and services required by other countries. The more you produce, the more you export, the better, Your currency gets demand is hence stronger.

Kenya produces agricultural produce (Tea, coffee, flowers etc) then we sell.
We also provide tourism services.

On the hand, we import almost everything else, fuel,manufactured items like phones,TV,cars.
Inputs to our few manufacturing industries are also imported,e.g. steel,gas,rubber etc

unfortunately, we are not doing too well in sectors that we are meant to be strong in, We are not producing efficiently and sufficiently in agriculture,
Our tourism sector still has huge competition. and still fighting travel advisories.

We are still uprooting coffee in kiambu and Thika to put up residential areas, etc
We've ended up importing agricultural products like maize, which we should have in abundance, being an agriculturally driven country.


So, i ask, what drives our economy!!!!
to me we seem to be doing much better than how my basic economics can explain.

Which industry in kenya makes us better than TZ and UG for example?
mukiha
#2 Posted : Friday, June 24, 2011 3:57:32 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
subzero wrote:


Which industry in kenya makes us better than TZ and UG for example?


Manufacturing. TZ and UG import a lot of finished goods from our manufacturers.
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
mukiha
#3 Posted : Friday, June 24, 2011 4:03:16 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
But your economics is correct. We are a net importer and as long as we remain that way, our currency will continue losing against the international majors.

At the time I finished primary school, the dollar was worth KSh7.35 and the pound sterling was KSh18.50.

Look at the exchange rates today...even if you ignore the recent spike, you will see we have lost by a factor of about ten.
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
KulaRaha
#4 Posted : Friday, June 24, 2011 4:12:28 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
We are driven by corruption. A lot of GOK money is diverted into the economy by corruption, keeping the economy ticking.
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
The Merchant
#5 Posted : Saturday, June 25, 2011 12:24:30 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
KulaRaha wrote:
We are driven by corruption. A lot of GOK money is diverted into the economy by corruption, keeping the economy ticking.

and beer Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Sad
Cde Monomotapa
#6 Posted : Saturday, June 25, 2011 3:18:58 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
The Merchant wrote:
KulaRaha wrote:
We are driven by corruption. A lot of GOK money is diverted into the economy by corruption, keeping the economy ticking.

and beer Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Sad

Two effective stimulus packs.
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#7 Posted : Saturday, June 25, 2011 10:42:21 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
mukiha wrote:
But your economics is correct. We are a net importer and as long as we remain that way, our currency will continue losing against the international majors.

At the time I finished primary school, the dollar was worth KSh7.35 and the pound sterling was KSh18.50.

Look at the exchange rates today...even if you ignore the recent spike, you will see we have lost by a factor of about ten.

Though pre-SAP the exchange rate was fixed and not market driven, and you could not just walk up to the bureau like we do nowadays to buy forex, alot of the depreciation from the USDKES rate of 7 30 years ago to the current 91 is because of our increasing trade deficit, a big problem right now coz of low rains and imported inflation from oil etc!
@SufficientlyP
eco
#8 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2011 2:31:13 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/17/2011
Posts: 229
Whatever drives our economy, should we maintain peace and political stability after 2012 General elections, it is likely that the economy will hit double digit growth. Good projections by AfDB http://tinyurl.com/3mwwjb2
kiterunner
#9 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2011 2:47:40 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/9/2011
Posts: 730
Location: Nairobi
i am not an economist but Tanzania is way off on manufacturing, they literally depend on Kenya for almost everything (Brookside and supaloaf included).

There is a lot of money or business directed to Kenya from abroad compared to her neighbours

Kenya has very enterprising citizens and a fairly skilled human resource hence has attracted and still keeps attracting foreign funds

Hopefully we ll have a manufacturing industry someday and be net exporters
our goals are best achieved indirectly
eboomerang
#10 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2011 11:51:31 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/27/2011
Posts: 301
Location: Nairobi
A large fraction of the economy is really sustained by the informal sector. The "bottom of the pyramid" being the most vibrant. If you look a few years back at how Safaricom and Kencell(Airtel) started and follow through their earnings, you'll see that if you don't address the masses you are out of business in Kenya.

At the national level it's mainly tourism and a bit of exports. The balance of trade is out of control, we being on the loosing end. With the emergence of Rwanda et al the shilling might weaken further over the coming years.

So far, I haven't seen any initiative that can bring sustainable growth to Kenya.
GGK
#11 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2011 12:33:02 PM
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Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 608
Location: Ruiru
The GDP of Kenya is about 3 Trillion Shillings (services62% Agriculture 22% Industry 16%) The problem here is 75% of labor force is in agriculture)

So if Kenya can mechanize its agriculture (thus involve less people) and maximize on service provision and industry, this GDP can be doubled in less than 10 years. With global population raising, agriculture is the next big thing... Arabs can have their oil, but we can exchange it for rice and thus reduce the balance of trade.
"..I am because we are. "― Ubuntu, Umtu,
eboomerang
#12 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2011 12:42:15 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/27/2011
Posts: 301
Location: Nairobi
GGK wrote:
The GDP of Kenya is about 3 Trillion Shillings (services62% Agriculture 22% Industry 16%) The problem here is 75% of labor force is in agriculture)

So if Kenya can mechanize its agriculture (thus involve less people) and maximize on service provision and industry, this GDP can be doubled in less than 10 years. With global population raising, agriculture is the next big thing... Arabs can have their oil, but we can exchange it for rice and thus reduce the balance of trade.

You're right, but major problem is that the government doesn't view national level economics in a brilliant manner like you are pointing out. Just recently they allowed the importation of GMO maize...what do you make of that.

I think it was in another thread where I mentioned that it's enough to have one huge industry as a country and given good management, that industry can turn around the country tremendously into a middle income state. However, a lot of governments initiative need to be realigned to support that industry.

When we say "industry" we don't mean "company", its the entire ecosystem that leads to the production of the given products or services -an industry will give birth to companies.
accelriskconsult
#13 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2011 2:19:58 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/2/2011
Posts: 629
Location: Nai
eboomerang wrote:
GGK wrote:
The GDP of Kenya is about 3 Trillion Shillings (services62% Agriculture 22% Industry 16%) The problem here is 75% of labor force is in agriculture)

So if Kenya can mechanize its agriculture (thus involve less people) and maximize on service provision and industry, this GDP can be doubled in less than 10 years. With global population raising, agriculture is the next big thing... Arabs can have their oil, but we can exchange it for rice and thus reduce the balance of trade.

You're right, but major problem is that the government doesn't view national level economics in a brilliant manner like you are pointing out. Just recently they allowed the importation of GMO maize...what do you make of that.

I think it was in another thread where I mentioned that it's enough to have one huge industry as a country and given good management, that industry can turn around the country tremendously into a middle income state. However, a lot of governments initiative need to be realigned to support that industry.

When we say "industry" we don't mean "company", its the entire ecosystem that leads to the production of the given products or services -an industry will give birth to companies.



Can someone tell me why Kenya has no National Water Pipeline Corporation? Methinks that land clashes, famine, disenfranchisement of the Northern provinces has a lot to do with failure by the government to identify water as the second most important resource after human capital
bwenyenye
#14 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2011 3:58:48 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/24/2007
Posts: 1,805
Thanks to the former regime, we are now an ecomony driven by SMEs and brokerage services.
I Think Therefore I Am
mukiha
#15 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2011 4:31:49 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
accelriskconsult wrote:
eboomerang wrote:
GGK wrote:
The GDP of Kenya is about 3 Trillion Shillings (services62% Agriculture 22% Industry 16%) The problem here is 75% of labor force is in agriculture)

So if Kenya can mechanize its agriculture (thus involve less people) and maximize on service provision and industry, this GDP can be doubled in less than 10 years. With global population raising, agriculture is the next big thing... Arabs can have their oil, but we can exchange it for rice and thus reduce the balance of trade.

You're right, but major problem is that the government doesn't view national level economics in a brilliant manner like you are pointing out. Just recently they allowed the importation of GMO maize...what do you make of that.

I think it was in another thread where I mentioned that it's enough to have one huge industry as a country and given good management, that industry can turn around the country tremendously into a middle income state. However, a lot of governments initiative need to be realigned to support that industry.

When we say "industry" we don't mean "company", its the entire ecosystem that leads to the production of the given products or services -an industry will give birth to companies.



Can someone tell me why Kenya has no National Water Pipeline Corporation? Methinks that land clashes, famine, disenfranchisement of the Northern provinces has a lot to do with failure by the government to identify water as the second most important resource after human capital


And what is this? http://nwcpc.go.ke/
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
eboomerang
#16 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2011 4:41:49 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/27/2011
Posts: 301
Location: Nairobi
mukiha wrote:

And what is this? http://nwcpc.go.ke/

A website...

and the story probably ends there.
accelriskconsult
#17 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2011 4:47:58 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/2/2011
Posts: 629
Location: Nai
eboomerang wrote:
mukiha wrote:

And what is this? http://nwcpc.go.ke/

A website...

and the story probably ends there.


Mukiha & eboomerang Applause for finding this phantom. I will attempt to find out how much it was allocated in the last budget and then write a letter to its top honcho to explain why Kenya Pipeline Corporation hogs all the limelight.
Obi 1 Kanobi
#18 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2011 4:56:44 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/23/2008
Posts: 3,017
GGK wrote:
The GDP of Kenya is about 3 Trillion Shillings (services62% Agriculture 22% Industry 16%) The problem here is 75% of labor force is in agriculture)

So if Kenya can mechanize its agriculture (thus involve less people) and maximize on service provision and industry, this GDP can be doubled in less than 10 years. With global population raising, agriculture is the next big thing... Arabs can have their oil, but we can exchange it for rice and thus reduce the balance of trade.


3 Trillion is on the lower side in my opinion, if the entire economy was recorded, I think the correct number should be Usd 75-100 billion.

As to what drives our economy, its got to be internal production and consumption (jua kali, private schools universities and hospitals), unlike the celebrated african economies like Angola and Co. that get favourable press because they spend their petro dollars overseas, ours is a very mature self sufficient economy that feeds on itself.
Here's an example, i recently chatted up an executive of a fast rising financial intitution who told me they were looking at growing their big loan book by a large margin, when I asked him where he would get the customers yet the larger banks BBK, KCB Stanchart had already locked in the major corporates, he smiled and told me that the big money is now in real estate developers who are now borrowing large loans unlike the mature manufacturing companies.

There are other factors that spur our growth, example diaspora remittances and the service industry.
"The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
eco
#19 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2011 5:06:47 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/17/2011
Posts: 229
accelriskconsult wrote:
eboomerang wrote:
mukiha wrote:

And what is this? http://nwcpc.go.ke/

A website...

and the story probably ends there.


Mukiha & eboomerang Applause for finding this phantom. I will attempt to find out how much it was allocated in the last budget and then write a letter to its top honcho to explain why Kenya Pipeline Corporation hogs all the limelight.


@accelriskconsult, also ask them (*&^%$?) why let all the Tana River water drain to the ocean, becoming wasted, while it can be repumped to irrigate expanse of agriculture plantations. Instead of poisoning our country with GMO maize, can't we tap Tana after the last HEP plant or just before it plunges sweet waters to the saline ocean? Egypt will not come after our necks afterall. Tana and Athi are ours, beginning to the end......that is if we do not continue to plunder the forests.
dunkang
#20 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2011 9:09:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,818
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
Do you know that the middle stages 3 main rivers in Kenya are in the Country's driest places. What a waste.

The government of Kenya started irrigation projects in Isiolo District (Now County) in a place called Malkadaka and Gafarsa. Agronomy thrived there since the Ewaso Ng'iro River passes there (less than 750m). When the farms were transfered back to the locals (Boranas) all steel farming equipments were converted to knives and machetes. To them, agronomy is slavery and tiring, they would rather have camels, cows and shoats, than farm!

Marsabit town and Walda in Moyale are classic examples of places where water was in plenty until the 90's when the Boranas decided livestock keeping was less weary. This lead to overstocking and deforestation. As we speak now, Marsabit town depend on a borehole 75km away in Logologo.

We should not be too fast to blame the central government and its parastatals yet 'our' STUPID cultures are the ones driven us backward!
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

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