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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
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youcan'tstopusnow
#101 Posted : Tuesday, July 19, 2011 1:18:30 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Buffet is my Jesus in this bizna..figurd if i'm to learn from someone, why not from a top 5 made man (according to American conduits) so I drink a lot of Coke as tuition fees to the man.

Laughing out loudly
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Iborian
#102 Posted : Tuesday, July 19, 2011 1:41:29 PM
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Joined: 4/17/2009
Posts: 194
How to tell NSE has bottomed out...

When certain wimps who have been missing in action suddenly reappear.
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Cde Monomotapa
#103 Posted : Tuesday, July 19, 2011 2:11:23 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Buffet is my Jesus in this bizna..figurd if i'm to learn from someone, why not from a top 5 made man (according to American conduits) so I drink a lot of Coke as tuition fees to the man.

Laughing out loudly

yeah bwoy..
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hisah
#104 Posted : Tuesday, July 19, 2011 7:03:11 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
VituVingiSana wrote:
hisah wrote:
Btw Buffet dislikes TA. I wish he'd used it to see why BYD was going to sell off in 2011.
So how has Mr. Buffett done over the years?


This was an example and not a comparison of how he has performed overall for years. Go easy... smile
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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QW25071985
#105 Posted : Tuesday, July 19, 2011 7:44:38 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/25/2011
Posts: 946
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Buffet is my Jesus in this bizna..figurd if i'm to learn from someone, why not from a top 5 made man (according to American conduits) so I drink a lot of Coke as tuition fees to the man.

Laughing out loudly


Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
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Sober
#106 Posted : Tuesday, July 19, 2011 10:02:24 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
Iborian wrote:
How to tell NSE has bottomed out...

When certain wimps who have been missing in action suddenly reappear.


Yah! Such times dissapoint the stocks gurus because their predictions backfire. They opt to watch from a distance
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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youcan'tstopusnow
#107 Posted : Tuesday, July 19, 2011 10:17:03 PM
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Location: Black Africa
When Gatheuzi returns from his self-imposed stocks exile. Currently in Real Estate...
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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mwekez@ji
#108 Posted : Tuesday, July 19, 2011 11:32:11 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
When Gatheuzi returns from his self-imposed stocks exile. Currently in Real Estate...


Nikuhama. He even sold everything in faNtaSEy market.
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Cde Monomotapa
#109 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2011 6:15:08 AM
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Joined: 1/13/2011
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mwekez@ji wrote:
Nikuhama. He even sold everything in faNtaSEy market.

Hahahaha Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly nice one!
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hisah
#110 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2011 6:34:07 AM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Currently NSE index is oversold and a bounce is in order. Wait to see if by Friday it closes flat or up. If up, the next 2 - 3 weeks should see the index target 3800 - 3900. Traders should look for oversold blue chips counters to ride the short term bounce. I like MSC, but at below 7 for the next target at 8 - 8.50 resistance.
Scom testing 3.30 - 3.40 should also see a bounce to 4 - 4.20. Large buy volume @3.40. This counter is too oversold. Stanchart chart @210 - 215 should rebound to at least 240. But no volumes, a bit tricky. KCB is coiling up to test 25 - 26. Its still in gains for the year! I mentioned why on some thread, will look for it. Coop bank too should test 17 - 18.50. Equity bank? And many more. Note I'm only scoping fast money chances where a trader is in and out in days.

For those that are dipping in Britak IPO, if NSE is oversold by listing date, this thing will rally more than if the index is neutral. If the index will be at overbuy levels esp above 3900 - 4000, the rally will be short lived. I expect transcentury to ride the bounce to 3900. But that counter will need steely nerves...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mwanahisa
#111 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2011 9:12:30 AM
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Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
@Hisah, I can see we are on the same page. I don't do much in the way of TA but over time (I guess through trial and error) you get a feel of the market. I bought heavily last week, so the bounce is very welcome.
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Sober
#112 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2011 10:13:29 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
Nikuhama. He even sold everything in faNtaSEy market.

Hahahaha Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly nice one!


Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly the guy is even afraid of ,losing cash in the fantasey market.
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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Aguytrying
#113 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2011 11:00:49 AM
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Joined: 7/11/2010
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mwanahisa wrote:
@Hisah, I can see we are on the same page. I don't do much in the way of TA but over time (I guess through trial and error) you get a feel of the market. I bought heavily last week, so the bounce is very welcome.

i third that, i also look for these bounces. Though i dint buy at the very bottom. I pulled the trigger abit early. Mwanahisa, i get what you are saying, i dont do TA, but i have that feel of the market too, due to constant scrutiny. Your co-op is already doing very well.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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mwanahisa
#114 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2011 11:13:49 AM
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Joined: 6/2/2008
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@AGT, Indeed there seems to be quite some interest in Coop. The one whose behaviour I can't seem to understand at the moment is Equity. But as I have said before even when I speculate, I prefer companies whose fundamentals are sound (or improving) rather than those ones running on pure hype.
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Genghis Khan
#115 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2011 12:05:16 PM
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Joined: 8/5/2010
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Location: Nairobi
My take is that TA creates little value when trading/investing in NSE equities market.

Reason... small market hence its inefficient and responds irrationally in the short term. Fundamentals, when analysed well, take care of the long term quite satisfactorily.

TA does not adequately capture "sentiments" which I believe play a much larger role here than say in NY or JSE. This requires a more qualitative approach...

I think what can pass for valuable TA is mapping the seasonal cycle (eg. january when people pay school fees Sad) of the indices and then imposing other "events" such as corporate announcements, elections, drought, inflation, money market activities (eg. bonds issues) etc.

I also think trading on the NSE has not been "invented" yet... traders (sometimes myself) just speculate without any proper research / TA...
"I'd rather be lucky than clever... every time!" - ME
"The problem is not what we don't know... it's what we know for sure that just ain't!" - MARK TWAIN
"Space we can recover... time never!" - NAPOLEON BONAPARTE
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QW25071985
#116 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2011 12:17:09 PM
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Joined: 3/25/2011
Posts: 946
Wow. i see some stocks are up.....
those who are buying why are you buying ????? unless you are buying for a 20% gain ( and that being too generous) only to sell...lol. this relief rally isnt seducing me . at all..
i am still waiting for lower prices....
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the deal
#117 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2011 12:18:25 PM
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Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@GK you are right on one or two things...the NSE is truly driven by sentiment...very few people who buy shares at the NSE know what theyre doing thats why u see the market tends to be overvalued at times because people will keep on buying and buying as long as the share is rising and do vice versa when the share is falling.

On the issue TA it works on the NSE...you just have to know how to apply...i use it when entering and exiting counters...also when i want determine the overall trend of the market or a specific counter...but rule no1 you have to know the fundamentals of the stock.
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Cde Monomotapa
#118 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2011 12:51:53 PM
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Don't forget the analysts!
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Cde Monomotapa
#119 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2011 12:54:15 PM
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Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Don't forget the analysts!

Those of the way of the "We" LLaughing out loudlyL
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Gadaffi
#120 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2011 1:15:56 PM
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Joined: 2/13/2011
Posts: 284
Location: Nairobi
QW25071985 wrote:
Wow. i see some stocks are up.....
those who are buying why are you buying ????? unless you are buying for a 20% gain ( and that being too generous) only to sell...lol. this relief rally isnt seducing me . at all..
i am still waiting for lower prices....

am wit u on this one, just waiting 4 th right time..
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