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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
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the deal
#91 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 11:22:29 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
the deal wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
And what's all this attachment with inflation anyway. China is in a similar spot working hard to stem it yet its economy is still growing @9% quarter-on-quarter. The only difference between Kenya (EAC) & China is scale but we are both DEVELOPING economies. I will be the last person on Wazua to bet against the resilience & un-paralled work ethic of the Kenyan people.

You will see what inflation will do to KCB's earningssmile bdw I still expect an earnings downgrade maybe to 15-30%

I see..and ur Equity Bank operates on Mars? Right, right...atleast KCB is fully EAC..there is nothing for us on Mars Sad

@Cde I have done my research...lets wait for 1H and 3Q numbers & then u will see those analysts at RenCap were smoking cheap weed...for starters whats the inflation in TZ, UG and RW? Eqty Bank is a Monster...on a straight line multiply EB's 2.9B 1Q from fees & commissions by 4 quaters & you will see.
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Cde Monomotapa
#92 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 11:25:36 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
That's fine.
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Cde Monomotapa
#93 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 11:38:58 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Bottom line...I am only interested in KCB making enough money to make its share-holders wealthier. Draw comparisons @ your leisure but not @ our expense. Find your own strength.
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, July 18, 2011 11:41 AM | Reason: Not specified
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#94 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 12:51:04 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Hunderwear wrote:
My gut feeling gives the following prices as the floor after which the market should experience a huge rally upwards.Saf@2 ,Kcb@15,Ekwity@15.5,Kplc@16,KK@8.Guys keep ur eyes open and your cash liquid and when you see the above prices you know its time.Am yet to have a feel of the target 20share index but below 3000 is most probable.Its only the patient who are gonna reap big here.Keep your fingers crossed!Any technical analyst to rubber stamp this?

I'm a technician and certainly in agreement with you as far as KCB, Equity n KPLC go. In fact Equity had gone to sub 12 only 2 years ago but has since more than doubled because of their good numbers in 2010 and Q12011 and also the MKESHO platform(though with very little contribution to the bottomline) gave them a boost in May 2010!
Safcom at 2bob sounds a bit scary, has never happened and only touched a low of 2.50 in March 2009 when the index was at 2,300!
Britak will be my last activ bet and will only return to the market as a buyer only when we go sub 3,000, hopefully in Q4
@SufficientlyP
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Cde Monomotapa
#95 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 12:56:37 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
No pun intended but my biggest problem with techies is that they base their decision on historical events & yet life generally moves forward smile lakini bora kila mtu ama...amangee!
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hisah
#96 Posted : Tuesday, July 19, 2011 5:47:02 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
No pun intended but my biggest problem with techies is that they base their decision on historical events & yet life generally moves forward smile lakini bora kila mtu ama...amangee!



@Cde - Dont throw a wet blanket on tech analysis (TA). Learn how it works plus the various methods it presents.
I have combined TA & fundamental analysis (fundies) for yrs now and it's quite powerful.

Back in Feb I looked at the fundies of the KE econ & the chart pattern (TA) and forecasted the index would most likely head south targetting 4000 before a bounce then head south again.

I used the same on USDKES and saw 90/- was on the cards. Alykhan saw 100/-. @kk still projects 120/-. All using fundies & TA.

Same case to gold/silver trades and global forex & global stocks.

Both fundies & TA compliment one another. Fundies for overall long term trend & TA for trend change, entry & exit points as per the overall trend.

Btw Buffet dislikes TA. I wish he'd used it to see why BYD was going to sell off in 2011.
Btw he also dislikes gold smile

I tend to play against top players, banksters, central planners when they start getting cocky aka arrogant... They're always a guaranteed indicator of where the money is heading next. Learn to wear the money goggles for this will never be taught in any school.
Money is scarce thus we cant all be millionaires lest the money becomes paper and useless to run the ponzinomics...

One day people will demand the elimination of money when they realize the prison that it is...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, July 19, 2011 5:48 AM | Reason: Not specified
Cde Monomotapa
#97 Posted : Tuesday, July 19, 2011 6:32:50 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
@hisah.. I see where u r coming from and I guess due to ur exposure to both fx and equities, charts are key to ur way of things. On my part, i'd just have to take interest as i am an equities guy and any fx is done via the banksters in my bank stocks. I have a very strong hands on business background so i get to be fond of fundies..i see u can be a hybrid of Soros & Buffet somewhat n' that's cool smile i'm watching U. Buffet is my Jesus in this bizna..figurd if i'm to learn from someone, why not from a top 5 made man (according to American conduits) so I drink a lot of Coke as tuition fees to the man. I share ur sentiments on the paperness of money..so i love my wealth. Case in point..in my adventures in Zim pre-2009 there were sentiments around me that when we smelt the inflexion point of the macro economy is go cash in ZWD and do ccy reverse play...I resisted and kept my stocks..come 2009, GoZ printed the last batch of ZWD, bought back all ZWD govt.paper..a month later the GoZ abandoned ZWD and adopted the USD as the functional ccy..as U can see many were left with papers of ZWD at hand & bank! Lol! I kept my stocks and they were re-denominated in USD and a happy camper I am now smile. I now have both a hard ccy hedge and equity portfolio all in one smile. Infact a resource rally is timely for Zim, with its 42 minerals, so gold,plat,palladium,nickel,diamonds,steel,coal,chrome,ferrochrome,copper (to name a few) rallying all plays into my hand via Zim and is pulling up the economy up double time smile i'm a living hedge fund smile. Set up shop in Zim in '06 so I know what zero-calorie Q.E is and how 250M% inflation follows smile. So u see I have patience like nobody bizness, it is surely paying. Kenya's economy is no where close to the problems i've witnessd/experiencd in pre-2009 Zim. So I am happy to buy from the hap-less of the NSE @ throw away prices.
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, July 19, 2011 7:33 AM | Reason: Not specified
mwanahisa
#98 Posted : Tuesday, July 19, 2011 10:26:44 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
@hisah and Cde Monomotapa. Kudos to you both. I have also hedged my bets a bit (I always wish it were more), mostly on the JSE, but that's a story for another day. In the meantime our "dead cat bounce" seems to be gaining some traction.
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VituVingiSana
#99 Posted : Tuesday, July 19, 2011 10:29:36 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,369
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
Btw Buffet dislikes TA. I wish he'd used it to see why BYD was going to sell off in 2011.
So how has Mr. Buffett done over the years?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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mwanahisa
#100 Posted : Tuesday, July 19, 2011 12:46:17 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
VituVingiSana wrote:
hisah wrote:
Btw Buffet dislikes TA. I wish he'd used it to see why BYD was going to sell off in 2011.
So how has Mr. Buffett done over the years?


@VVS, you are right on the money!!!
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