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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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mwekez@ji wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:"Bulls & Bears make money, pigs get slaughterd" Woe unto bears because going short is not possible in NSE!!! So we improvise by buying as cheaply as possible - which usually happens during a bear market 
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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I believe it is in order to state that bears profiteer off pessimism & un-founded fears.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:I believe it is in order to state that bears profiteer off pessimism & un-founded fears. True. Bears make money by selling high and then buying low when pessimism and fear sets in. However, NSE does not provide for this short selling trading strategy
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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@M & M...I now get what u r saying. My apologies for mis-interpreting who a bear is. I will then settle for being a cheap-skate buyer and premium seller cheers.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:@M & M...I now get what u r saying. My apologies for mis-interpreting who a bear is. I will then settle for being a cheap-skate buyer and premium seller cheers. Cheers mate. That makes this thread very relevant to the hunting expedition.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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mwekez@ji wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:@M & M...I now get what u r saying. My apologies for mis-interpreting who a bear is. I will then settle for being a cheap-skate buyer and premium seller cheers. Cheers mate. That makes this thread very relevant to the hunting expedition.
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/25/2010 Posts: 519 Location: nairobi
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mwekez@ji wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:I believe it is in order to state that bears profiteer off pessimism & un-founded fears. True. Bears make money by selling high and then buying low when pessimism and fear sets in. However, NSE does not provide for this short selling trading strategy I've tried short selling, several times, it works if you have eyes...just open them wide...you'll see what I mean...
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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lovely2010 wrote:
I've tried short selling, several times, it works if you have eyes...just open them wide...you'll see what I mean...
Interesting. How do you do the short selling? .
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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mwekez@ji wrote:lovely2010 wrote:
I've tried short selling, several times, it works if you have eyes...just open them wide...you'll see what I mean...
Interesting. How do you do the short selling? . Amazing grace.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/29/2006 Posts: 2,570
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:lovely2010 wrote:
I've tried short selling, several times, it works if you have eyes...just open them wide...you'll see what I mean...
Interesting. How do you do the short selling? . Amazing grace. =>there is a difference between shortselling and being a-bear-on-the-run. In the former you use other pples shares on hire. The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Precisely. Short-selling is founded on borrowing/loaning STOCK.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/27/2007 Posts: 3,604
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:Precisely. Short-selling is founded on borrowing/loaning STOCK. Yah. Short selling is the opposite of going long. One sells shares that he does not actually own and by doing this one makes money when the prices go lower. This does not happen at the NSE brothers. African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/22/2008 Posts: 851 Location: nairobi
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Sober wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Aguytrying wrote:I'm invested, but i love what is happening to the n.s.e. Why? Its an opportunity to buy, and by 2013, which ever way elections go the market will recover. Like last time, besides, i'm rather optimistic of a peaceful election. Take heed... Going by what you just said, it means the market will not recover until after the next general elections. This simply means that the thing has not yet bottomed out as most of us are feeling. I have just gone through the recent companies valuation, counter by counter. So far ALL COUNTERS ARE TRADING AT BOOK VALUE........most of them have had a reduction in their market capitalisation READ they have undergone some sort of devaluation. For me, it is not yet time for bargain hunting.........................
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/14/2011 Posts: 639
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murenj wrote:Sober wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:[quote=Aguytrying]I'm invested, but i love what is happening to the n.s.e. Why? Its an opportunity to buy, and by 2013, which ever way elections go the market will recover. Like last time, besides, i'm rather optimistic of a peaceful election. Take heed... Going by what you just said, it means the market will not recover until after the next general elections. This simply means that the thing has not yet bottomed out as most of us are feeling. I have just gone through the recent companies valuation, counter by counter. So far ALL COUNTERS ARE TRADING AT BOOK VALUE........most of them have had a reduction in their market capitalisation READ they have undergone some sort of devaluation. >below NAV?dont think so not unless you are talking of forward NAV.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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This is simply not true. The counters that trade below NBV are very much in the minority. E.g. In the Financials, the only counter that trades below its NBV is KenyaRe. murenj wrote:I have just gone through the recent companies valuation, counter by counter. So far ALL COUNTERS ARE TRADING AT BOOK VALUE........most of them have had a reduction in their market capitalisation READ they have undergone some sort of devaluation.
For me, it is not yet time for bargain hunting.........................
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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@Murenj, the fact that the market cap of a company has decreased actually demonstrates that its relative value has increased "ceteris paribus", not the other way round.
This is not to say that the drop in share values will not continue, so it may not yet be time to dip in headlong into the NSE. Nonetheless, it is instructive to note that the NSE does not dip continuosly, at least NOT FOR ALL COUNTERS. I am betting that along the way some savvy traders will still make money on short term reversals on selected counters. Watch this space!
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/1/2007 Posts: 232
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it is a market for the savvy. unlike the beginning of the year when a number of counters were bellow book value, this time, there is none. Equity closed the week with a slight dip bellow book value. The market will continue to drop up to 3000 -3500 point index. Then the likes of murenj will afford to romp in
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/22/2008 Posts: 851 Location: nairobi
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mwanahisa wrote:@Murenj, the fact that the market cap of a company has decreased actually demonstrates that its relative value has increased "ceteris paribus", not the other way round.
This is not to say that the drop in share values will not continue, so it may not yet be time to dip in headlong into the NSE. Nonetheless, it is instructive to note that the NSE does not dip continuosly, at least NOT FOR ALL COUNTERS. I am betting that along the way some savvy traders will still make money on short term reversals on selected counters. Watch this space! enligten me brother.....or should I have used assets?
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/14/2011 Posts: 639
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My gut feeling gives the following prices as the floor after which the market should experience a huge rally upwards.Saf@2 ,Kcb@15,Ekwity@15.5,Kplc@16,KK@8.Guys keep ur eyes open and your cash liquid and when you see the above prices you know its time.Am yet to have a feel of the target 20share index but below 3000 is most probable.Its only the patient who are gonna reap big here.Keep your fingers crossed!Any technical analyst to rubber stamp this?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Hoho! Gimme KCB again @16bob but this time with a 1.75 dividend and u'll have made my Xmas!!
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