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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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mkonomtupu wrote:I'm with @guru on the bullish east african economy after 2012. Uganda is currently arguing with tullow on the amount of oil to be produced per day, tullow wants to produce 200,000 barrels per day by 2015 (that's $2billion dollars a day) for the next 25 years and uganda thinks that will shock the economies of east africa economies. Heck even somalia is looking bullish flights to mogadishu are fully booked. I just hope raila if he gets elected will not pick up fights with M7, the stakes for 2012 are high.
@deal, where do you think you are going, we need your analysis some of us can't do numbers. But i love the pessimism it's always time to buy on low valuations  Oil can not guarantee economic success look at Nigeria...M7 and his mates can splash all those billions on private jets and other things.what E.A. needs is political stability.
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 89
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the deal wrote:@young i might be here but 100% of my funds come from home...so i'm just like you...i plan to exit the Kenyan market over the coarse of the year...i'm a firm believer in the Namibian economy...its well diversified unlike Botswana we dont solely depend on diamonds...its well managed...there is political stability...i believe the economy will growth average 4.8-6% every year over the the next 5-10 years barring any recession...thats where i wanna go long term not here..so in Kenya i speculate with all my portifolio and repertriate the gains thats what all the foreign investors are doing...that strategy has worked supeer fine for me thus far...unless there is political stability in Kenya i will never go long term...mention 2012 to anyone here they get scared...i came to Kenya in 2007 in October and 2 month down the line Kenya was burning and the NSE was on its knees...i dont want any of that. @deal and Young,Please enlighten on this,If I earn in foreign currency,spend in foreign currency but squeeze the surplus and invest in Ksh NSE what does it make me??
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,223 Location: Nairobi
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mkonomtupu wrote:tullow wants to produce 200,000 barrels per day by 2015 (that's $2billion dollars a day) for the next 25 years You can buy a KShs 200 [$2.30] calculator on River Road. 200,000 x $100 = $20,000,000 not $2,000,000,000 Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,223 Location: Nairobi
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The Ugandan oil is waxy. It will cost a lot more to produce & refine vs light sweet crude oil. That said... Uganda will benefit but the real (significant) benefits do not accrue until at least 2015... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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VituVingiSana wrote:mkonomtupu wrote:tullow wants to produce 200,000 barrels per day by 2015 (that's $2billion dollars a day) for the next 25 years You can buy a KShs 200 [$2.30] calculator on River Road. 200,000 x $100 = $20,000,000 not $2,000,000,000 I have said clearly in the post i cant do numbers that's why i hire a bean-counter(accountant) who is just adding to my operating expenses. I like looking at global figures and picking up trends not good with details. That said...the point is the oil cash will drive up consumption and the prospects look good
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,223 Location: Nairobi
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@mm - The cost so extracting & refining the oil will be substantial [also most of the extraction will be using imported machinery] so the Uganda economy numbers may look good but 'profits' do not stay there. Will Uganda benefit? Yes. When? 2015 (substantial benefits). How much? Not $20mn/day but a lower figure. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/25/2010 Posts: 176
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but the fact that we'll have the product at close proximity and exports may be passing thru our port will be good for Kenya Rule No.1 is never lose money. Rule No.2 is never forget rule number one
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,223 Location: Nairobi
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dave.kim wrote:but the fact that we'll have the product at close proximity and exports may be passing thru our port will be good for Kenya Not necessarily. Most likely there will be little to export since most of it will be used regionally - Tanzania, Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, etc. Will Kenya (directly) benefit? Yes, just not to the extent people think. The INDIRECT benefits will be important e.g. KQ, RVR, etc Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,048 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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Bwana @VVS and others, there is no point arguing as it will be a round robin arguement , leave it to time or let knowledgeable Ugandan well versed in emerging Ugandan Petroleum development in Lake Albert (western region) to conclude. Congo for example is a petroleum producer with a refinery !!! The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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The title of this thread is misleading...LMAO.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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VituVingiSana wrote:mkonomtupu wrote:tullow wants to produce 200,000 barrels per day by 2015 (that's $2billion dollars a day) for the next 25 years You can buy a KShs 200 [$2.30] calculator on River Road.200,000 x $100 = $20,000,000 not $2,000,000,000 GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/9/2009 Posts: 6,592 Location: Nairobi
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NSE is a strange market indeed. How can the biggest gainer yesterday be WTK and the biggest loser today is Sasini? These two are basically in the same sector but again maybe it was an aborted take off by WTK. BBI will solve it :)
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,223 Location: Nairobi
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young wrote:Bwana @VVS and others, there is no point arguing as it will be a round robin arguement , leave it to time or let knowledgeable Ugandan well versed in emerging Ugandan Petroleum development in Lake Albert (western region) to conclude.
Congo for example is a petroleum producer with a refinery !!! Bw.Young, Congo is huge [Both Congos] but what I can't get my finger on is how I can make money off Uganda's oil... I want to be the proverbial person who sells shovels to Gold Miners. Levi's started as a supplier to Gold Miners during the California Gold Rush. The gold ran out while Levi's is a worldwide brand! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:@mkonomtupu - at the moment I'm more concerned with the behaviour of global oil and global food prices. If this two don't slow down soon, I expect financial markets especially equities to catch a cold. Whether stocks are cheap or expensive, wild oil prices always have a way of raising the red flag on global economy growth, which means bets off on financial markets. I am watching these 2 central banks (US Fed and ECB) to determine which way to go. If ECB hikes rates (very likely) it will feel like March 2008 - end of stimulus or easy money/credit.
Locally watch the inflation rate. If it shoots through 6% and oil prices are still high with a weak shilling, NSE will under perform since the GDP growth will also slow down. If the USD/KES rate hits 90 - I'll be out of stocks completely and troop to the money markets for higher interest rates. And in 4 months after I stated the above, ECB indeed hikes interest rates and we are back to March 2008...$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:@mkonomtupu - at the moment I'm more concerned with the behaviour of global oil and global food prices. If this two don't slow down soon, I expect financial markets especially equities to catch a cold. Whether stocks are cheap or expensive, wild oil prices always have a way of raising the red flag on global economy growth, which means bets off on financial markets. I am watching these 2 central banks (US Fed and ECB) to determine which way to go. If ECB hikes rates (very likely) it will feel like March 2008 - end of stimulus or easy money/credit.
Locally watch the inflation rate. If it shoots through 6% and oil prices are still high with a weak shilling, NSE will under perform since the GDP growth will also slow down. If the USD/KES rate hits 90 - I'll be out of stocks completely and troop to the money markets for higher interest rates. And in 4 months after I stated the above, ECB indeed hikes interest rates and we are back to March 2008... Indeed your predictions have come to pass...tourism is key beneficiary of the weak shilling so KQ & TPS will do well earnings wise....
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