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Short term Stock pick
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#21 Posted : Monday, July 04, 2011 6:04:43 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Hi guys, @Waguma is not a fresha, he has already said that!
@SufficientlyP
QW25071985
#22 Posted : Monday, July 04, 2011 6:19:21 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/25/2011
Posts: 946
hahahah. lol. @Waguma is most definately a fresha. we are in a bear market and he expects to make profit IN A MONTH ???????????? i say he expect maybe to make +40% in a month.Lets get real.Thats impossible
Sir Waguma please donot confuse the n.s.e with your nearest casino !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sober
#23 Posted : Monday, July 04, 2011 7:21:32 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
I would advice you to put the miney in an IPO. Your gamble may work on the opening day because of the wide swings always seen on the first day. But which ONE RUNS IN A MONTH?! none. The nearest is the Britac one running from next week 12th to 5th aug but you will give them like a month more before they are back for trading hence a period of three in total. And mark you it is a gamble because it call also pull a negative stunt.
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
mwekez@ji
#24 Posted : Monday, July 04, 2011 8:29:34 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
The IPO that s/he can put his/her bet on is Bank of Kigali. BK has strong fundamentals unlike Britak. Britak speculators will be counting losses if it issues a profit warning during H1 results
lovely2010
#25 Posted : Monday, July 04, 2011 8:45:11 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/25/2010
Posts: 519
Location: nairobi
Jimnah is one of the big boys in Britak, but now he wants to be politician...I think the coming IPO munamchangia pesa ya campaign...
Sober
#26 Posted : Monday, July 04, 2011 8:50:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
lovely2010 wrote:
Jimnah is one of the big boys in Britak, but now he wants to be politician...I think the coming IPO munamchangia pesa ya campaign...



even if tunacchangia pesa ya campain peopel should just ensure that they safeguard theirs. If you can make a gain together with the big boys the better.
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
Aguytrying
#27 Posted : Monday, July 04, 2011 8:52:07 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
1 month will turn into 1 yr. N.s.e is no joke. There's an ipo this month....britak. But if i was to advice you, just keep your money in the bank, and do your project in august.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
mwekez@ji
#28 Posted : Monday, July 04, 2011 11:36:28 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Read the following report and then do one of the following:
1. Invest in defensive stocks
2. Invest in the bank of kigali ipo
3. Take @Aguytrying advice in post #27

CFC Equity Report

NSE 20 share Index’s six months performance to date: In the six months to June this year, the NSE 20 Share Index has lost 11% (20% in dollar terms). In our view, this is largely attributable to three main factors (i.e.) drought, high inflation and the weakening shilling. In the period under review, KenolKobil has performed the best returning 19% year to date (YTD). On the other hand, AccessKenya has performed the worst (down 46% YTD). All sectors constituting the Nairobi All Share Index have returned negative returns year to-date. The banking sector has relatively outperformed all sectors returning -2.5% YTD. The Automobile sector has had the poorest run YTD losing 17.4%. The ICT sector has also under-performed the NSE 20 share index as it has lost 15.7% YTD.

Bear run may persist in the next six months: We foresee the factors cited above to continue dragging the Kenya equities performance for the next six months. We are however quick to point out the possibility of inflation topping off in the fourth quarter as the harvest season starts. We also expect investors to start taking a cautious view about the equities market as Kenya gears up for the 2012 presidential elections. In our view, the NSE 20 share Index is likely to close below the 4200 mark. This represents a -5% return YTD. In cognizance of this, we encourage investors to invest in defensive stocks; these are stocks which are expected to be less affected by the current bear run and could therefore out-perform the NSE 20 Share Index. In the six months to June this year, the only stock in our universe with a Buy recommendation that has exhibited defensive traits is: East African Breweries (EABL) which has lost only 3% YTD.

Insurance stocks likely to under-perform: Last year the insurance companies registered a positive performance being full beneficiaries of the strong run recorded by the Kenyan equities market (The Kenyan equities market was second best in Africa in 2010). This is as a result of the insurance companies large investments in the equities market thus benefitting from the market rise. We expect the Kenyan equities market to close in the negative, and this trend should therefore reverse the gains registered by the insurance companies. We are likely to see these stocks recording further weakness as the market pre-empts this possibility.
invest0r
#29 Posted : Tuesday, July 05, 2011 9:00:16 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/15/2010
Posts: 162
mwekez@ji wrote:
... do one of the following:
1. Invest in defensive stocks
2. Invest in the bank of kigali ipo
3. Take @Aguytrying advice in post #27


Option no 1 is for fund/portfolio managers who must be in the market. In a bear market, hold your money and wait for the moment when the bear is departing and buy all your counters at bei ya jioni.

Take option 2 or 3
hairglo
#30 Posted : Tuesday, July 05, 2011 9:03:04 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 4/28/2011
Posts: 30
dunkang wrote:
Dear WAGUMA,

I entered NSE to make a quick catch, 16 months later, am still waiting for profits, since i know if i press SELL today, i might as well commit suicide.

Instead, i have now found myself buying and buying and buying.

As you have been told, 'NSE is not a fish market'. BUY, wait, make profit, SELL.

I have learnt the hard way, but am better off since i've not yet sold!

Yours Sincerely,


dunkang
FOR: TRADERS FORCED TO INVEST (pty).


same here
invest0r
#31 Posted : Tuesday, July 05, 2011 9:18:57 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/15/2010
Posts: 162
mwekez@ji wrote:
Insurance stocks likely to under-perform: Last year the insurance companies registered a positive performance being full beneficiaries of the strong run recorded by the Kenyan equities market (The Kenyan equities market was second best in Africa in 2010). This is as a result of the insurance companies large investments in the equities market thus benefitting from the market rise. We expect the Kenyan equities market to close in the negative, and this trend should therefore reverse the gains registered by the insurance companies. We are likely to see these stocks recording further weakness as the market pre-empts this possibility.


Britak is in this category, all things look bleak for this firm.
QD
#32 Posted : Tuesday, July 05, 2011 9:52:31 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/5/2009
Posts: 597
WAGUMA wrote:
Av been studying the price movements of several counters in the past month and av realized that its a little bit tricky to get a good gain on them considering the fact that the transaction fees will eat up part of the capital gain.
I had in mind NMG,EABL,DTB & Equity.I might still speculate on them but al increase my duration.

@Gordon gekko & Invest0r,i agree on the T-bills.The rates are the best so far but i believe that there are better investment options.
If you have a loose 1million or more,try commercial papers...nakumatt is a good one tho aint sure if they still need money.


@ Waguma..How does one trade on commercial papers here in kenya? en which companies have traded in them and how was the performance
The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts while the stupid ones are full of confidence
the deal
#33 Posted : Tuesday, July 05, 2011 10:43:34 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
So much for bears on the NSE, the Namibia stock exchange has rallied for 7 straight days
FUNKY
#34 Posted : Tuesday, July 05, 2011 11:07:00 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/30/2010
Posts: 1,635
@ the deal- how can one invest in Namibia Stock Exchange sitting in Kenya?..any brokers in Kenya who have offices there?
WAGUMA
#35 Posted : Tuesday, July 05, 2011 11:28:11 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/11/2008
Posts: 21
@QD,the most active company thats doing commercial papers in Kenya is Dry associates and its in Westlands.
They place the papers for companies that want short term funds from the public at a premium rate due to the high risk.They they invite investors to buy the papers for durations of 3months to yr.Last i checked they had Nakumatt,crown berger,Davis & shirtliff,TPS.The minimum investment was 1m but i heard that they reduced to 450k.If interested holla so that i give you contacts of their investment analysts.
young
#36 Posted : Tuesday, July 05, 2011 11:37:19 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,048
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
FUNKY wrote:
@ the deal- how can one invest in Namibia Stock Exchange sitting in Kenya?..any brokers in Kenya who have offices there?



Check also the liquidity of NSX.
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
the deal
#37 Posted : Tuesday, July 05, 2011 12:58:29 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
FUNKY wrote:
@ the deal- how can one invest in Namibia Stock Exchange sitting in Kenya?..any brokers in Kenya who have offices there?

No Kenyan broker has offices there yet, I will post a guide to the Nam stock xchange on my blog but u can check out their website here http://www.nsx.com.na 1 SA Rand=1 Nam Dollar...maybe today it will rally for the 8th day in a row im waiting for closing figuressmile
QD
#38 Posted : Tuesday, July 05, 2011 1:46:38 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/5/2009
Posts: 597
WAGUMA wrote:
@QD,the most active company thats doing commercial papers in Kenya is Dry associates and its in Westlands.
They place the papers for companies that want short term funds from the public at a premium rate due to the high risk.They they invite investors to buy the papers for durations of 3months to yr.Last i checked they had Nakumatt,crown berger,Davis & shirtliff,TPS.The minimum investment was 1m but i heard that they reduced to 450k.If interested holla so that i give you contacts of their investment analysts.


Am interested! so how do i contact you?
The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts while the stupid ones are full of confidence
young
#39 Posted : Tuesday, July 05, 2011 1:53:29 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,048
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
WAGUMA wrote:
@QD,the most active company thats doing commercial papers in Kenya is Dry associates and its in Westlands.
They place the papers for companies that want short term funds from the public at a premium rate due to the high risk.They they invite investors to buy the papers for durations of 3months to yr.Last i checked they had Nakumatt,crown berger,Davis & shirtliff,TPS.The minimum investment was 1m but i heard that they reduced to 450k.If interested holla so that i give you contacts of their investment analysts.



In addition


www.dryassociates.com
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
FUNKY
#40 Posted : Tuesday, July 05, 2011 2:02:28 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/30/2010
Posts: 1,635
@ the deal-please give me your e-mail address.
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