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mwanahisa
#361 Posted : Saturday, July 02, 2011 3:17:27 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
@Njung'e....Why are you projecting a bleak first half in 2011-12 for MSC?
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Njung'e
#362 Posted : Sunday, July 03, 2011 11:15:10 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
@Mwana-shares,
I have cautioned....Anything above 245 MT sugar is not possible...Not unless sugar produced after 1st July is added to this...huh!!....You know it can happen but even then 250 is still not possible....First half will be terrible and trust me on this.The Co. has run out of cane and the situation will not improve until October....There is only one way out of this if i were in their shoes!.Negotiate with Nzoia and buy cane from them to cushion this three months!
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
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QW25071985
#363 Posted : Sunday, July 03, 2011 11:54:47 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/25/2011
Posts: 946
Njung'e wrote:
@Mwana-shares,
I have cautioned....Anything above 245 MT sugar is not possible...Not unless sugar produced after 1st July is added to this...huh!!....You know it can happen but even then 250 is still not possible....First half will be terrible and trust me on this.The Co. has run out of cane and the situation will not improve until October....There is only one way out of this if i were in their shoes!.Negotiate with Nzoia and buy cane from them to cushion this three months!


funny enough the share price seems to be agreeing with you.i hope we can get this stock at 3 bob..
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Njung'e
#364 Posted : Sunday, July 03, 2011 12:45:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
Qw,
Three bob most unlikely (Although i have learnt to never say NEVER)...i am thinking 6.50-8.50 range for the next one calendar.
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
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QW25071985
#365 Posted : Sunday, July 03, 2011 1:02:18 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/25/2011
Posts: 946
Njung'e wrote:
Qw,
Three bob most unlikely (Although i have learnt to never say NEVER)...i am thinking 6.50-8.50 range for the next one calendar.


WHAT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! one year. i hope not.
lol and some guys wanted to buy this stock @ 7.30 saying its oversold.
i just outta that bandwargon when i saw it touch a low of 7.00..i see it break 7.00 and lower in the next coming weeks..bad bad bad bad bad bad for the stock...
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dunkang
#366 Posted : Sunday, July 03, 2011 2:29:32 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,818
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
QW25071985 wrote:
Njung'e wrote:
Qw,
Three bob most unlikely (Although i have learnt to never say NEVER)...i am thinking 6.50-8.50 range for the next one calendar.


WHAT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! one year. i hope not.
lol and some guys wanted to buy this stock @ 7.30 saying its oversold.
i just outta that bandwargon when i saw it touch a low of 7.00..i see it break 7.00 and lower in the next coming weeks..bad bad bad bad bad bad for the stock...


i also thought so!Sad d'oh! Sad d'oh! Sad d'oh! Sad d'oh! Sad
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

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Genghis Khan
#367 Posted : Sunday, July 03, 2011 2:39:18 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/5/2010
Posts: 335
Location: Nairobi
wote wrote:
@Genghis Khan, if he were to stand for Governor why would he consider Kakamega and not his home town of Homa-bay?.I do not consider Kakamega to be as cosmopolitan as Nairobi.


I was joking, but I'm not very good at it.
"I'd rather be lucky than clever... every time!" - ME
"The problem is not what we don't know... it's what we know for sure that just ain't!" - MARK TWAIN
"Space we can recover... time never!" - NAPOLEON BONAPARTE
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Sober
#368 Posted : Sunday, July 03, 2011 10:02:26 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
Genghis Khan wrote:
wote wrote:
@Genghis Khan, if he were to stand for Governor why would he consider Kakamega and not his home town of Homa-bay?.I do not consider Kakamega to be as cosmopolitan as Nairobi.


I was joking, but I'm not very good at it.

because kakamega is the second most populos county after the capital, maybe.
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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Sober
#369 Posted : Sunday, July 03, 2011 10:05:47 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
Genghis Khan wrote:
wote wrote:
@Genghis Khan, if he were to stand for Governor why would he consider Kakamega and not his home town of Homa-bay?.I do not consider Kakamega to be as cosmopolitan as Nairobi.


I was joking, but I'm not very good at it.

African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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stocksmaster
#370 Posted : Thursday, August 15, 2013 2:22:45 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 445
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
stocksmaster wrote:
Mumias will only stabilise after 2012 once the effects of the COMESA Rules on the sugar industry are fully internalised. The fact of the matter is external sugar is still cheaper than internally generated sugar. Meaning Mumias margins will get a beating once the flood gates are opened in 2012(I dont think COMESA will listen to any further extensions of Safeguards.)

@ Njung'e: What is the way forward? How can the local sugar companies compete? Or should the Western Sugar Belt think of another crop?

The argument that Mumias is diversifying to other products for revenue generation does not hold much. On a revenue generation point, when all the different revenue streams are factored in, sugar will still constitute 80% of Mumias Sugar Co. business (Sugar:co-generation:ethanol will be about 80:10:10). Thus Mumias revenues and profits will largely depend on its core business which is sugar.

Time will tell.

Happy hunting


Three years later, and this argument is still valid. Its core business is sugar and if it cannot make money in the sugar trade, the future is very bleak for this company.

Happy Hunting
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stocksmaster
#371 Posted : Wednesday, September 04, 2013 7:47:11 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 445
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
stocksmaster wrote:
stocksmaster wrote:
Mumias will only stabilise after 2012 once the effects of the COMESA Rules on the sugar industry are fully internalised. The fact of the matter is external sugar is still cheaper than internally generated sugar. Meaning Mumias margins will get a beating once the flood gates are opened in 2012(I dont think COMESA will listen to any further extensions of Safeguards.)

@ Njung'e: What is the way forward? How can the local sugar companies compete? Or should the Western Sugar Belt think of another crop?

The argument that Mumias is diversifying to other products for revenue generation does not hold much. On a revenue generation point, when all the different revenue streams are factored in, sugar will still constitute 80% of Mumias Sugar Co. business (Sugar:co-generation:ethanol will be about 80:10:10). Thus Mumias revenues and profits will largely depend on its core business which is sugar.

Time will tell.

Happy hunting


Three years later, and this argument is still valid. Its core business is sugar and if it cannot make money in the sugar trade, the future is very bleak for this company.

Happy Hunting


Is it time for the Kenyan sugar belt to think of another cash crop that they can produce competitively? Maybe they should plant palm trees and supply bidco with palm oil instead of bidco going all the way to Uganda to farm the same.

Happy Hunting.
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VituVingiSana
#372 Posted : Wednesday, September 04, 2013 10:07:10 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,231
Location: Nairobi
@stocksmaster - The problem is the suppliers i.e. the farms are fragmented & smallholder which does not work very well for sugarcane. The same would apply to many other crops e.g. Palm Oil whose largest producers have their own estates.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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kaka2za
#373 Posted : Wednesday, September 04, 2013 1:19:41 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/3/2008
Posts: 4,057
Location: Gwitu
Smallholder tea farming succeeded in Kenya because KTDA factories did not compete against each other unlike in sugar belt where there is poaching and encroachment. Kenya can't compete with Susan, Tz and I think Malawi who are on large scale.
Truth forever on the scaffold
Wrong forever on the throne
(James Russell Rowell)
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streetwise
#374 Posted : Wednesday, September 04, 2013 2:08:25 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/23/2011
Posts: 1,740
Location: Nairobi
Its a buy at ksh 2.00
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