30th June 2011 - Update

Williamson - Tea prices will remain strong 1Q 2011. Production will be lower than 2010.
Price on 3 Jan 2011 =
Target = 300/-
[Wow, I am far off in share price (210/-) even though the Tea Prices have held up. Production has suffered due to lack of rains in the Jan-Mar quarter]

KenolKobil - The best OMC in Kenya. Also regional expansion. For the patient. I am lucky I can buy these at 10/-. It is a gift.
Price on 3 Jan 2011 =
Target = 13/- [but not for sale until Dec 2013 at 20/-]
[Getting there (11.40) but I am going to be patient coz huge payday coming. 1H 2011 Results should be very, very good as announced. 2H depends on the regional economies]

Kenya Airways - Great African & Asian opportunities as India+China trade with Africa increases + increased intra-Africa travel.
Price on 3 Jan 2011 =
Target = 60/-
[Getting there (38) but I am going to be patient coz huge payday coming. I hope. KQ plans new routes, 10 Embraers have been 'booked', a Rights Issue may affect the price]

KPLC - Rain/water/thermal/geothermal sources of power have increased so will sales. Kenya's strong economic growth means continuous need for additional electricity. I believe the 1H 2010-11 results will be very good.
Price on 3 Jan 2011 =
Target = 28/-
[Profits will be up (22) but I think I was wrong on this one in 2011. Political pressures will dampen profits. Maybe 2013?]

Unga - [Coz someone asked] This is a 3-year play for me from mid-2010 not a 2011 performer. There is plenty of maize during 1Q 2011. Wheat is always imported so does not concern me as all millers are affected. If I owned 50% of Unga, I would sell the brand names, scrap/sell the machinery then use the cash to develop the land in Industrial Area.
Price on 3 Jan 2011 =
Mid-2013 Target = 20/- [+ dividends]
[Currently (10.50) but I have the time]

@mufasa - I underestimated the politicians' ability to wreck the economy i.e. the slow pace of reforms like the 'new' Companies' Act

There should be a thread: VituVingiSana+PKoli vs stocksmaster+mwanahisa i.e Long Term vs Playing The Market. Winners = Kings of Wazua

Ok! Ok! I know I dream too much sometimes

=>If I were to dream it would be about a private placement!!

KQ now seats only 8% above its 52 week closing low set on 8 March 2011 http://contrarianinvesti...port-07-07-2011-nse.html

You should do an update.

KPLC - Power Rationing
KK - Half Year results already announced
KQ - Down from 38 since you first posted

30th July 2011 - Update

Williamson - Tea prices will remain strong 2Q 2011. Production will be lower than 2010 unless it rains heavily. Current production is behind 2010.
Price on 3 Jan 2011 =
Target = 300/-
[I remain very far off in share price (205/-) even though the Tea Prices have held up. Production has suffered due to lack of rains in the Jan-Jun quarters. I doubt it will touch 300/- this year. I am not worried about profits with a weak KES + high tea prices. If had 'control' I would sub-divide the farms & sell them off!]

KenolKobil - The best OMC in Kenya. Also regional expansion. For the patient. I still think 12/- is a huge bargain.
Price on 3 Jan 2011 =
Target = 13/- [but not for sale until Dec 2013 at 20/-]
[Since I made my pick, I have received KES 0.52 & expect another KES 0.57 but the big payday is coming. 2H2011 is expected to be better than 2H2010]

Kenya Airways - Great African & Asian opportunities as India+China trade with Africa increases + increased intra-Africa travel.
Price on 3 Jan 2011 =
Target = 60/-
[The price performance has disappointed. I like it but I doubt I will make it to 60/- any time soon. Is there hop? Yes. Not in 2012 but 2013 after new aircraft are deployed & elections are over. KQ plans new routes, 10 Embraers have been 'booked', the (potential) Rights Issue remains a damper]

KPLC - The failed rains has caused supply problems. Some rationing in July/Aug 2011. The price has fallen but I remain optimistic based on new sources of thermal/geothermal power to boost sales. Kenya's strong economic growth means continuous need for additional electricity. I believe the 1H 2010-11 results will be good but KPLC might 'under-report' to stave off criticism. The price review has been postponed but I think it will be phased in 'under the radar'.
Price on 3 Jan 2011 =
Target = 28/-
[Profits will be up but I think I was wrong on this one in 2011. Political pressures will dampen profits - already seen recently. Maybe 2013?]

Unga - Remains a 3-year play for me from mid-2010 not a 2011 performer. Maize imports during 3Q 2011 will help. Wheat is always imported so does not concern me as all millers are affected. If I owned 50% of Unga, I would sell the brand names, scrap/sell the machinery then use the cash to develop the land in Industrial Area.
Price on 3 Jan 2011 =
Mid-2013 Target = 20/- [+ dividends]
[Currently (10/-) but I have the time]

Overall: I increased my stake in KK. Cash is always an issue. I also bought some additional Williamson.

For all my picks, if you have the patience & capacity to wait it out for 2 year (2013) then all will be well. Why? Profits are there, just the 2012 elections + drought/famine + world financial uncertainty has made investors jittery. Good times for buyers though!

Seems to me if you were in charge, you would shit the businesses. Sorry, meant shut!

Plus we might be seeing that bonus in 2013...

@youcant - KES 20 is the 'minimum' price I would sell KK. I would re-assess my view of KK at the time & compare it to interest rates, other shares, other investments & my needs.

@young - True about the thread but I invest in good & bad years. My philosophy remains simple. Buy good firms at cheap/fair prices. I have waited for some investments to mature. And it paid off. I am not good at 'trading' so I leave it to the experts. At some point I am going to do what you do & invest for dividends but at the moment I prefer 'growth' thus I am OK with KQ, Unga, KK, etc! [Of course, KK is both a dividend stock + growth firm]