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and the inflation rate for june is....
kizee1
#1 Posted : Wednesday, June 29, 2011 11:11:18 AM
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Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
14.49 up from 12.95...thoughts? how much shud mpc hike cbr by given this developments?
guru267
#2 Posted : Wednesday, June 29, 2011 11:46:04 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
kizee1 wrote:
14.49 up from 12.95...thoughts? how much shud mpc hike cbr by given this developments?


I was ecpecting 18/19%.. So this is a pleasant surprise
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mwanahisa
#3 Posted : Wednesday, June 29, 2011 12:11:52 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
@kizee1. These inflation figures are really getting out of hand, and there are enough analysts projection a figure of 20% before the year is out. CBR should be jacked up by 100 basis points to provide some shock therapy.

If the USD:Ksh rate can be restricted to the 90 shilling level and Brent Crude remains below USD 110 then perhaps we can avoid the rate going beyond 15% and then gradually subside to the 10% range towards the year-end. Am I being overly optimistic?

Treasury should also try and fund a large chunk of its deficit through overseas borrowing. This would restrict the rise in the rate of G.o.K paper while also bringing in some forex into the economy. I am no economist though, and with the Greek problems, I wonder whether international investors would go for it at rates that would not be usurious. What d'ya think?
guru267
#4 Posted : Wednesday, June 29, 2011 12:21:12 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
mwanahisa wrote:
@kizee1. These inflation figures are really getting out of hand, and there are enough analysts projection a figure of 20% before the year is out. CBR should be jacked up by 100 basis points to provide some shock therapy.


This current inflation is being driven by costs and not demand.. Jacking up the CBR in this environment will cause stagflation and worsen the situation
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
bwenyenye
#5 Posted : Wednesday, June 29, 2011 12:56:18 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/24/2007
Posts: 1,805
guru267 wrote:
mwanahisa wrote:
@kizee1. These inflation figures are really getting out of hand, and there are enough analysts projection a figure of 20% before the year is out. CBR should be jacked up by 100 basis points to provide some shock therapy.


This current inflation is being driven by costs and not demand.. Jacking up the CBR in this environment will cause stagflation and worsen the situation


That has been my take too. The current inflation is not demand oriented. It is supply oriented due to shortages of Oil, USD reserves in Kenya, Maize, housing, water, rainfall, you name it and therefore increasing borrowing costs is not solving anything. I am getting tired of the MPC now, they appear too intellectual and not pragmatic enough.
I Think Therefore I Am
kizee1
#6 Posted : Wednesday, June 29, 2011 12:59:05 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
mwanahisa wrote:
@kizee1. These inflation figures are really getting out of hand, and there are enough analysts projection a figure of 20% before the year is out. CBR should be jacked up by 100 basis points to provide some shock therapy.

If the USD:Ksh rate can be restricted to the 90 shilling level and Brent Crude remains below USD 110 then perhaps we can avoid the rate going beyond 15% and then gradually subside to the 10% range towards the year-end. Am I being overly optimistic?

Treasury should also try and fund a large chunk of its deficit through overseas borrowing. This would restrict the rise in the rate of G.o.K paper while also bringing in some forex into the economy. I am no economist though, and with the Greek problems, I wonder whether international investors would go for it at rates that would not be usurious. What d'ya think?



agree....this just in...theyve re-introduced wat is known as "window" borrowing" the cbr will no longer be the rate used to fund banks cbk clearing accts comittments!...a huge move!rate will be determined daily by 9pm and posted on cbks website the rate for todays purposes is 8%...A VERY BOLD AND SLY MOVE ON CBKS PART!
Genghis Khan
#7 Posted : Wednesday, June 29, 2011 1:18:28 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/5/2010
Posts: 335
Location: Nairobi
kizee1 wrote:
mwanahisa wrote:
@kizee1. These inflation figures are really getting out of hand, and there are enough analysts projection a figure of 20% before the year is out. CBR should be jacked up by 100 basis points to provide some shock therapy.

If the USD:Ksh rate can be restricted to the 90 shilling level and Brent Crude remains below USD 110 then perhaps we can avoid the rate going beyond 15% and then gradually subside to the 10% range towards the year-end. Am I being overly optimistic?

Treasury should also try and fund a large chunk of its deficit through overseas borrowing. This would restrict the rise in the rate of G.o.K paper while also bringing in some forex into the economy. I am no economist though, and with the Greek problems, I wonder whether international investors would go for it at rates that would not be usurious. What d'ya think?



agree....this just in...theyve re-introduced wat is known as "window" borrowing" the cbr will no longer be the rate used to fund banks cbk clearing accts comittments!...a huge move!rate will be determined daily by 9pm and posted on cbks website the rate for todays purposes is 8%...A VERY BOLD AND SLY MOVE ON CBKS PART!


Agreed, its about time. Any official communication / link?
"I'd rather be lucky than clever... every time!" - ME
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Barrywhite
#8 Posted : Wednesday, June 29, 2011 1:21:30 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 12/2/2009
Posts: 286
Location: Nairobi
What about the expected increase in power tariffs between 18-25%? If this is allowed by ERC, inflation will worsen further. I wish there was evidence on concerted, co-ordinated effort at addressing all these factors driving inflation. I see half hearted, half measured initiatives at best from government agencies.
The laudable is more often than not rendered laughable by overclaim
Barrywhite
#9 Posted : Wednesday, June 29, 2011 1:23:35 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 12/2/2009
Posts: 286
Location: Nairobi
What about the expected increase in power tariffs between 18-25%? If this is allowed by ERC, inflation will worsen further. I wish there was evidence on concerted, co-ordinated effort at addressing all these factors driving inflation. I see half hearted, half measured initiatives at best from government agencies.
The laudable is more often than not rendered laughable by overclaim
mwekez@ji
#10 Posted : Wednesday, June 29, 2011 1:37:51 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
guru267 wrote:
kizee1 wrote:
14.49 up from 12.95...thoughts? how much shud mpc hike cbr by given this developments?


I was ecpecting 18/19%.. So this is a pleasant surprise


I dont find it pleasant at all. The overall inflation figure of 14.49% can hide so many detailss. Check; 'Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages' inflation is 22.52%. Transport inflation is 22.71%. Sad
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