Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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This could explain why Kengen has moved up in the last 2 trade days.
FROM AFRICAN ALLIANCE RESEARCH TEAM:
KenGen is the biggest gainer following the tariff review,given that it is expected to receive both capacity and energy payments,up from the flat tariff of KES 2.36/kWh. Using a total PPA increment to the current KES 3.40/kWh being earned by IPP’s,we calculate KenGen’s intrinsic value at KES 44.40,a 77.5% upside on the current market price of KES 25.0.
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/23/2007 Posts: 67
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Did they Factor in the Effect that Higher Oil Prices will have on Kengen's Returns,and if so are these Costs 100% (or whateva %) transferrable to the end Consumer.?? I dont disregard this power Tariff development though,but deeper insight is needed b4 Jumping in. http://www.stockskenya.c...aspx?stk=0&top=7424
M'c Kende Siafu !
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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Eddie,
All fuel costs increases are transferable to the customers through KPLC. Increase in Fuel costs would only affect their working capital - and probably the cost of borrowing... but they have good credit period with oil companies that supply them.
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/10/2008 Posts: 6
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Good question Eddie,but doesnt KPLC pass on the fuel charge directly to customers' bills? meaning that Kengen passes the charges on to KPLC.
Citius altius fortius !
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/23/2007 Posts: 67
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@ Liv,
Where did yu get that report for K-alliance,i dont mind Reading it..send the link..
Thanx
M'c Kende Siafu !
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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@Eddie,
I received it through email as a pdf attachment. They usually send this to their customers.
I can forward the full report to your email if you are interested.
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/10/2008 Posts: 6
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@Liv pls send me a copy onemutis@yahoo.co.co.ukCitius altius fortius !
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/7/2008 Posts: 124
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Be a buddy and paste the entire report here!Afterall we are all in this together for bad,worse or good! You never know you could influence the price even it goes the monkey way!Am yet to sell my initial allocation of 6,430!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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@Sisi,
How did you find the KENGEN valuation by AA?
Today it has moved up circa 70 cts.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/26/2007 Posts: 6,514
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HAHA this one I dumped at around 35.00 Have you seen their accounts? Totally cooked! Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/10/2008 Posts: 6
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@Liv,
I found the valuation of 44 very credible,based on fundamentals and I placed an order immediately.
The Company may take some time to get to that level for several reasons;
(1) There are far too many shares that are in the hands of retail investors. Retail investors keep on cashing out every time the stock price approaches 34-35.
(2) I believe that speculators have also identified Kengen as one of their favorite stocks.
To achieve the target of 44,we need long term and institutional investors to continue their interest in the share and mopping up shares from the retailers.
Thanks Liv,I owe u a reddy kilowatt hour
Citius altius fortius !
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/12/2008 Posts: 345
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Ha! Price tumbled to 19 n later settled at 25-28 range..reason mainly was government offloadin more shares had main share holders bolting... And am not talkin below 50k holdings. The state halted the share offer until prices become more 'reflectiv of their true worth'... Its a good hedge stock..at 27(annual average) its less susceptible to rapid price changes..usually good for timing entry n exit points. But realise fears of what befell Mumias when government did the offer..that contributed tearin down nyaga....... It is good especially for long term investors since evidently it is growing in worth n value..but above 35...the government will be offloading. Don't hav dreams of grandeur on this...unles the government changes its mode of reducin its stake from the current mode it has.. A second public offering.
'I have heard of You,O Lord. Now mine eyes have seen thee! Baal Perazim..the Lord of the Breakthrough!'
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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Thanks Sisi,
I think the big guns are mopping... today almost 1.3 mln shares sold and the price went up by more than 2%.
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/7/2008 Posts: 124
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Cooked books? I CARE NOT!If this company closes its eyes(disintegrates),no one and I mean none,Kenya included will be left standing.So people buy,buy for the long term coz you will reap BIG TIME!
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/12/2008 Posts: 345
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@miser..prepare to have ur capital held up.. @liv...befor Safcom's listin,stocks that consistently had large daily volume turnover included in order of biggest trade volumes..kengen,Mumias,KCB..averagin between 900000 shares and 1.5million shares a day...slightly under 800k are access,kenya re,cmc n kq. So don't be wowed by volumes. If u r fundamentally interested in this counter..just buy..u don't need to look at it daily.. Otherwise..remember complaints we had with kengen 6months post ipo that it had promise an extra sh1.20 per kilowat rise in tarif charge to kplc....that was late rescinded after so much foul cry by kplc n politicians? Well..finally we got it..though not sure how much is tricklin down to kengen. Note also kimunya's reason for not doin the second public offer..that the market does not reflect true value of the stock. The biggest hindrance to growth in share value is dilution..thro splits,bonuses n rights...let alon a massive offload as anticipated by th Treasury! Unless...i repeat,unless the government changes the method by which it wishes to thin out its holdin on kengen...chances of THE MARKET REFLECTING THE VALUE OF sh44???..ARE LARGELY LIMITED.. Why is no one seein this? That said. Its a very good hedge stock.. Especially in uncertainty like Safcom has caused..n cooperative will repeat. I don't think people on this site daily are considerable as LONG TERM investor..am talkin at least 3years..simply because if some stock u might be holdin for last two years was blasted here today u'd sell off! By kengen and log off sk!.....permanently!
'I have heard of You,O Lord. Now mine eyes have seen thee! Baal Perazim..the Lord of the Breakthrough!'
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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Jammo,
I am an investor... I continuously buy and keep good stocks over time. I used to trade between 2000 and 2005. But I noticed that the networth of my friends who were long term investors increased faster than my own.
While I was trading I could sell and sometimes keep the money waiting for a good share buy... then sometime I coul spend the money on other things. Sometimes I left a good share and bought into shares that did not do well.
So i decided to build my own fund which has been growing well. My objective is to get a big enough dividend which can compare to my salary. ...but at the same grow my networth to a certain figure.
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/5/2008 Posts: 16
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What's up?
Time series analysis!
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