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Transcentury IPO
Kenyan Insider
#1 Posted : Tuesday, February 22, 2011 12:56:01 AM
Rank: Hello


Joined: 2/22/2011
Posts: 1
Guys, if you had the opportunity to get in on this action before the listing would you take it?
erifloss
#2 Posted : Tuesday, February 22, 2011 7:55:54 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
Kenyan Insider wrote:
Guys, if you had the opportunity to get in on this action before the listing would you take it?

Cautiously, i think a high premium has already been factored into the share as of now coz of the proposed IPO. There's another thread discussing the same, risks attached to the firm are also high.
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
Gordon Gekko
#3 Posted : Tuesday, February 22, 2011 7:59:47 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
Such an uncanny resemblance with Firestone listing
drake
#4 Posted : Wednesday, May 18, 2011 8:56:35 AM
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Joined: 8/8/2009
Posts: 170
Chance to get the C.E.O and Strategy head to answer your tough questions at MindSpeak. [RSVP]

28th May, Michael Joseph Hall, SafaricomHouse

http://www.rich.co.ke/
erifloss
#5 Posted : Wednesday, June 22, 2011 12:00:26 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
Valued at 47 on a promising future. What a joke, guys will get burnt badly in this coz pe is over 30 in a sector where the pe is at around 10-14. Same game as safcom of going to a foreign firm for valuation so as to give a notion of transparency & strong fundamentals.
www.businessdailyafrica....18/-/2pl9hj/-/index.html
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
VituVingiSana
#6 Posted : Wednesday, June 22, 2011 1:00:37 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
I am staying out until I know more... I will read the IM but very cautious on this one!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
ngapat
#7 Posted : Wednesday, June 22, 2011 10:23:19 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 12/11/2006
Posts: 902
@25, my valuation
“Invest in yourself. Your career is the engine of your wealth.”
tony stark
#8 Posted : Wednesday, June 22, 2011 10:52:50 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/8/2008
Posts: 947
ngapat wrote:
@25, my valuation

Based on what book value, earnings ??
The price OTC a few weeks ago before they closed the book at Dyer and Blair was 50- 60 bob.
Can you explain how you came to this value? Ama it was your gut(duodenum, ileum, stomach or rectum) feeling?

@ VVS im also waiting this out. Can not get a handle on the value of this company and with diversification into Africa this guys can cook the books and value the company holding at a huge premium. History of political patronage, the messed up RVR deal and now the gover is building a rival railway.... Nikubaya.
That is only in Kenya what happening to their holdings in other countries. I learned a lesson from Olympia I still need more info.
ProverB
#9 Posted : Wednesday, June 22, 2011 11:09:09 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
Kenyan Insider wrote:
Guys, if you had the opportunity to get in on this action before the listing would you take it?


i would. but largely because i'v been building up an investment fund..and as time goes at some point it will be too big for me. I gues that makes me more of a stakeholder in the industry than share holder..thus favor counters seemingly espousing my vision..centum etc.. of course NOT Olympia. smile

..the family ties between current ceo and the state-house bother me though.. politics interference becomes more of a probability than a possibility.

I guess the question is .. why do you want it?
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
erifloss
#10 Posted : Wednesday, June 22, 2011 11:41:17 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
tony stark wrote:
ngapat wrote:
@25, my valuation

Based on what book value, earnings ??
The price OTC a few weeks ago before they closed the book at Dyer and Blair was 50- 60 bob.
Can you explain how you came to this value? Ama it was your gut(duodenum, ileum, stomach or rectum) feeling?

@ VVS im also waiting this out. Can not get a handle on the value of this company and with diversification into Africa this guys can cook the books and value the company holding at a huge premium. History of political patronage, the messed up RVR deal and now the gover is building a rival railway.... Nikubaya.
That is only in Kenya what happening to their holdings in other countries. I learned a lesson from Olympia I still need more info.

At a price of 47, that's a pe of 36. why buy the share on a promising future. Some analysis of their 2010 figures below.
erifloss wrote:
Looking at the Financial statements, i am sure that these guys are cashing out. Reasons:
1. At a price of around 35 at the OTC with an EPS of 1.29, the share is at a p/e of around 27 & with a div of 0.20 a yield of 1%. They do know it is overpriced in this kind of a market. I presume the div will be paid out of div received from EACBL(Note EACBL's good payout though profits declined)
2.Profits from operating activities only increased by 22% while PBT by 20%. Can't buy when the operational profit & PBT only increase by that much at the above p/e.
3. This is the part where it starts getting funny coz Income tax reduces from 292M to 162M making the PAT go up by a significant 99.7%.
4.What makes the EPS grow from 0.34 to 1.29 is on other comprehensive incomes:
- Revaluation of PPE up 62%
- Net change in fair value of available for sale financial assets up 627% (Unrealised)
- Available for sale released on disposal of quoted shares up 3,824%
- Exchange diff on translation of subsidiaries up 976% (Unrealised.RVR, kewberg,Tanelec, Cableries du Congo & Avery are also not a quoted companies(i stand corrected) & i'd love to see their financials)
- other comprehensive income up 410%
- Total comprehensive income up 266%
Keenly look at where the leap in EPS has come from!
5. Part of their special resolution reads:' That the following be considered and, if thought fit, passed as a SPECIAL RESOLUTION:
“That the Board be authorised to establish an equity participation programme for the management, with a view to
aligning management with the long term interests of shareholders, and that 10% of the authorised but unissued
share capital of the Company be reserved for this purpose, subject to the requisite regulatory approvals”.'
Is this part of ESOP or is it for CMA regulations of ensuring existing shareholders don't leave the company hanging.

With all of the above i'm awaiting to see how the interested public are going to make money off the share and how i can be convinced that these guys are not cashing out in any way

'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
bomboclat
#11 Posted : Wednesday, June 22, 2011 11:42:15 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 2/22/2011
Posts: 41
Look at its books in other countries that it has invested in before you decide to buy those shares. It was making massive losses in other countries in Afica, can't remember where exactly and most Kenyans were or are not aware of it.
selah
#12 Posted : Wednesday, June 22, 2011 11:44:38 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
tony stark wrote:
ngapat wrote:
@25, my valuation

Based on what book value, earnings ??
The price OTC a few weeks ago before they closed the book at Dyer and Blair was 50- 60 bob.
Can you explain how you came to this value? Ama it was your gut(duodenum, ileum, stomach or rectum) feeling?

@ VVS im also waiting this out. Can not get a handle on the value of this company and with diversification into Africa this guys can cook the books and value the company holding at a huge premium. History of political patronage, the messed up RVR deal and now the gover is building a rival railway.... Nikubaya.
That is only in Kenya what happening to their holdings in other countries. I learned a lesson from Olympia I still need more info.


I think this is an over valuation although it depends on the number of shares issued.

I remember equity did the same thing with their Introductory price it was around 70/- 75/= there I cant remember but given its future prospects it quickly appreciated in price.

Now lets use layman language to analyze Transentury.

RVR -Loss making venture last yr the company pumped more than 600m into it and it disappeared into thin air.

EAC - well last yrs profits were a disappointment.

Engineering - performing averagely with stiff competition from Asian countries.

Others - Their chai products are selling well but its not their main line of business while real estate is mostly tied in debts.(the last time I checked)

so can someone please enlighten us on why I should buy this stock above 20/=(No valuation done to come with this value)
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
the deal
#13 Posted : Wednesday, June 22, 2011 11:50:17 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Its coming overvalued...but we will find ways to make money out of it just like CFC insurance and Uchumi.
mwanahisa
#14 Posted : Wednesday, June 22, 2011 12:52:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
At the beginning, some folks will indeed make money from it. But I doubt that it will last for long. So this will have to be a hit and run affair.
selah
#15 Posted : Wednesday, June 22, 2011 12:53:40 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya


Quote:
Private equity firm TransCentury’s share has been valued at Sh47 ahead
of listing on the Nairobi Stock Exchange by the end of the year.

Goodson Capital Partners, a South African-based strategy and research
firm said the company’s value stood at Sh12.5 billion, attributing the
price to its promising future.

The private equity company plans to float 267 million shares on the
stock exchange.

Mr Masinde concurred that an information memorandum will be a better
guide and this is expected to come after the market regulator, the
Capital Markets Authority, gives the green light for the firm to list
through introduction expected to take place by the end of this year.


Source RICH.CO.KE

My question is why was it valued in South Africa ? I would like to know how they came up with a 12b valuation.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
mwanahisa
#16 Posted : Wednesday, June 22, 2011 1:01:06 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
As far as I am concerned Trans Century is an Investment Holdings Co. - no different from the likes of Centum & the likes of RemGro (JSE listed co.)So why should we be valuing it differently from its peers?

KenyanLyrics
#17 Posted : Wednesday, June 22, 2011 1:05:19 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/16/2010
Posts: 906
Location: Nairobi
bomboclat wrote:
Look at its books in other countries that it has invested in before you decide to buy those shares. It was making massive losses in other countries in Afica, can't remember where exactly and most Kenyans were or are not aware of it.

It's haemorrhaging money in Tanzania apparently.
selah
#18 Posted : Wednesday, June 22, 2011 1:20:51 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
Looking at a statement in BD indicates that OTC had overvalued it by a whooping 1.8B if we were to factor-in the current valuation.

Quote:
The Sh50 per share value of the company’s shares when it closed its books is also higher than the Sh12.5 billion valuation by Sh1.8 billion.



http://www.businessdaily...18/-/2pl9hj/-/index.html
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
VituVingiSana
#19 Posted : Wednesday, June 22, 2011 2:33:58 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
If you buy these shares then it is like buying Firestone yaani the cash goes to the TC 'owners' not TC itself.

I am NOT saying they will not grow but wait for the prospectus so we can check it out!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Wa_ithaka
#20 Posted : Wednesday, June 22, 2011 2:45:01 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
For Ksh47, you can but two Centum shares which may well be worth Ksh47 in two years time...
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
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