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No sign of Deacons FY 2010 results
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muganda
#1 Posted : Monday, May 23, 2011 9:49:20 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,906
Happenchance to uncover my Deacons Kenya prospectus in a stack of papers, and aah the glib in the document:
- growth of almost 100% in net profit
- forecasted EPS of 7.59 giving an implied P/E of 8.23x
- purchased shares automatically qualifying for dividend (1.79/= 2009)
- increase of stores from 25 to 30
- preparation of listing to commence 12 months from offer


So today is 23-May and the silence is ominous. Why don't I have any clue on what the performance of the company is as a shareholder?

It is not lost on me the latest Forbes 100 shows 4.Bernard Arnault and 7.Amancio Ortega in industries akin to Deacons.

But at this corner of black Africa, and the rising dollar for a net retail importer, noting Kenyans are typical in their rush to sell good news, might I regret...
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VituVingiSana
#2 Posted : Monday, May 23, 2011 9:54:16 AM
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Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,223
Location: Nairobi
@muganda - Strong $ & Rand is gonna hurt them bad!
I was told stores in Westgate pay rent in US$ & if similar rental agreements elsewhere then Deacons in trouble...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Gordon Gekko
#3 Posted : Monday, May 23, 2011 10:22:12 AM
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@muganda, how's the monkey doing?
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muganda
#4 Posted : Monday, May 23, 2011 10:42:16 AM
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@VVS very reassuring

@Gordon Gekko which monkey the trader's monkey http://www.wazua.co.ke/f....aspx?g=posts&t=135
OR the subordinate's one http://www.fredberinger....nt-whos-got-the-monkey/

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muganda
#5 Posted : Friday, June 03, 2011 1:57:02 PM
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Joined: 9/15/2006
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Rightooo... I testify to having seen Deacons Kenya, reports and financial statements for year ended 31 Dec 2010.

Annual General Meeting: 21-Jun-11 at 10am, Sarova Panafric

My assessment, is the results are average; however, if I compare with the prospectus, the results are poor.

Actual:
- growth of 28.4% turnover to 1.8b
- growth of 36.6% in net profit to 108m
- actual EPS of 5.28 giving a P/E of 11.84
- dividend 1.20/=
- stores increased to 25

Forecast: wrote:
- growth of almost 100% in net profit
- forecasted EPS of 7.59 giving an implied P/E of 8.23x
- purchased shares automatically qualifying for dividend (1.79/= 2009)
- increase of stores from 25 to 30
- preparation of listing to commence 12 months from offer



Hmmn @VVS I see 15m (1m '09) in net foreign exchange losses. Plus there's the looming foreign exchange exposure, arising from ZAR trade payables.

Surprisingly cash flow shows operations generated only 4m (127m '09) primarily due to increase in inventories and receivables. Borrowings only decreased slightly by 16%; at least some overdrafts were paid off.

Half of proceeds from IPO ties up in inventories. The rest in short term deposits....


STOP press - lunch time - @Gordon Gekko, I beg leave to go feed my monkey...
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Gordon Gekko
#6 Posted : Friday, June 03, 2011 3:04:44 PM
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@muganda, you mean the monkey is still on your back! It's either one hell of a primate or you a one hell of a suave handler, par excellencesmile
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Okonkwo
#7 Posted : Friday, June 03, 2011 4:01:13 PM
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I got their 2010 financials yesterday. They proposed a dividend I think 1.40 per share for those in register by 20 May 11. I need to offload a few am at 70/=. Anybody willing?
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Gordon Gekko
#8 Posted : Friday, June 03, 2011 6:55:29 PM
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Okonkwo wrote:
I got their 2010 financials yesterday. They proposed a dividend I think 1.40 per share for those in register by 20 May 11. I need to offload a few am at 70/=. Anybody willing?


In the red corner, coming in at ksh 70 with a dividend of ksh 1/40, with only two known stores and in the blue corner, weighing in at ksh 42 with a dividend of ksh 1/50 with Boeings and Embraers to boot, do we really have a match in our hands or will this be a one sided contest between a mosquito weight and a superheavy weight?
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youcan'tstopusnow
#9 Posted : Friday, June 03, 2011 9:07:44 PM
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Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Gordon Gekko wrote:
Okonkwo wrote:
I got their 2010 financials yesterday. They proposed a dividend I think 1.40 per share for those in register by 20 May 11. I need to offload a few am at 70/=. Anybody willing?


In the red corner, coming in at ksh 70 with a dividend of ksh 1/40, with only two known stores and in the blue corner, weighing in at ksh 42 with a dividend of ksh 1/50 with Boeings and Embraers to boot, do we really have a match in our hands or will this be a one sided contest between a mosquito weight and a superheavy weight?

And in the green corner, coming in at 25.75 with a dividend of 1.25 and straight from retirement...
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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VituVingiSana
#10 Posted : Saturday, June 04, 2011 2:50:34 AM
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I have the Financial Statements... I expect the mgmt to cry about exchange rates & such stuff...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Gordon Gekko
#11 Posted : Tuesday, June 21, 2011 5:16:38 PM
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VituVingiSana wrote:
I have the Financial Statements... I expect the mgmt to cry about exchange rates & such stuff...

You didn't mention that it is a whopping 36% growth in profits!!

http://www.nation.co.ke/...42/-/t9ba0a/-/index.html
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VituVingiSana
#12 Posted : Tuesday, June 21, 2011 6:55:50 PM
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Okonkwo wrote:
I got their 2010 financials yesterday. They proposed a dividend I think 1.40 per share for those in register by 20 May 11. I need to offload a few am at 70/=. Anybody willing?
Check with Kestrel. There are buyers who want more shares.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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VituVingiSana
#13 Posted : Tuesday, June 21, 2011 7:18:14 PM
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OK... so Deacons is aggressive about expansion. The late opening of Galleria (Langata) made them miss the Xmas rush for those stores.

The CEO made 14mn in 2010 [Not bad!] Not sure about other benefits/perks.

30% sales happen during Xmas. New brands coming including babyshop which will be for expectant & new mothers.

90% of customers are women. Men are a tough market for them since their 'target' market go shopping abroad.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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amolo
#14 Posted : Tuesday, June 21, 2011 8:33:59 PM
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Can't really count on expectant and new mothers. Their maximum contribution (of newborns) can only come once every financial yeas!
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VituVingiSana
#15 Posted : Wednesday, June 22, 2011 12:57:21 AM
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amolo wrote:
Can't really count on expectant and new mothers. Their maximum contribution (of newborns) can only come once every financial yeas!
Kenyans breed like rats [among the world's highest birth rates]. Hopefully, enough of them can afford to shop at babyshop.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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