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Research Report: Kenyan Cement Stocks present a Mixed Bag
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the deal
#1 Posted : Monday, June 13, 2011 12:19:17 PM
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Check out my new research report on the Kenyan cement sector http://contrarianinvesti...n-cement-stocks_13.html ofcourse follow the blog via google alerts to receive updates.
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young
#2 Posted : Monday, June 13, 2011 1:14:56 PM
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Joined: 6/20/2007
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Location: Lagos, Nigeria
Bravo @the deal from my point of view the analysis is spot on.

Quite unlike other analysts you did not drum up ARM and downplay on the competetors.

For speculative play ARM / EAPC is it.

But for a long term investors with an eye on dividend yield , I as a young old man prefer Bamburi.

I have been having a good ride with ARM for the past 7 years but its dividend yield is peanuts. While Bamburi returned circa 7.00 bob , (above 6% DY) ARM returned 1.50 bob (below 2% DY) notwitstanding the fact that ARM share price is higher.


I recently offloaded my holdings in ARM to pitch my tent with Bamburi cum dividend.
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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the deal
#3 Posted : Monday, June 13, 2011 3:39:24 PM
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@Young Bamburi is very efficient that might save them from the coming or aulready happening price wars well for ARM its best years are surely gone by from now on it will be a steuggle to mantain their double digit growth rate...EAPC on the other hand is worth speculating
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Aguytrying
#4 Posted : Monday, June 13, 2011 8:09:01 PM
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@deal. Wow! That was a fantastic review and nice pun. Absolute quality.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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the deal
#5 Posted : Wednesday, June 15, 2011 8:06:49 PM
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Now National Cement wants to overtake Bamburi as Kenya's no 1 cement maker www.businessdailyafrica....8/-/qipwctz/-/index.html
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the deal
#6 Posted : Wednesday, August 24, 2011 7:09:26 PM
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Look how i tipped Bamburi here, well @Mzee Young took notice... http://contrarianinvestingkenya.info is your number 1 source of research...LOL...
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earthvoice
#7 Posted : Wednesday, August 24, 2011 7:40:23 PM
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the deal wrote:
Look how i tipped Bamburi here, well @Mzee Young took notice... http://contrarianinvestingkenya.info is your number 1 source of research...LOL...

Applause Applause
"All intelligent investing is value investing -- acquiring more than you are paying for. You must value the business in order to value the stock." - Charlie Munger.
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the deal
#8 Posted : Thursday, October 27, 2011 10:01:50 PM
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Look at Portland...who bought when i said buy...many month ago... http://contrarianinvesti...n-cement-stocks_13.html

The portland results here http://af.reuters.com/ar...ws/idAFL5E7LR5AC20111027
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the deal
#9 Posted : Monday, November 07, 2011 9:01:14 PM
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the deal wrote:
Check out my new research report on the Kenyan cement sector http://contrarianinvesti...n-cement-stocks_13.html ofcourse follow the blog via google alerts to receive updates.

ARM today reports a 61% drop in profits...debt to equity of 62% i knew it was a matter of time before their debts caught up with them.
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guru267
#10 Posted : Monday, November 07, 2011 9:26:14 PM
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the deal wrote:

ARM today reports a 61% drop in profits...debt to equity of 62% i knew it was a matter of time before their debts caught up with them.


@the deal Why would I sell ARM when revenues were up 37%?? Business is clearly still booming even with increased supply and competitionvfrom other players..

Exchange loss provisions can be written back as income at anytime the kshs improves so not much worries there..

Thats not to say that ARM is cheap, I just dont see any reason for it to fall.
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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the deal
#11 Posted : Monday, November 07, 2011 10:04:02 PM
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guru267 wrote:
the deal wrote:

ARM today reports a 61% drop in profits...debt to equity of 62% i knew it was a matter of time before their debts caught up with them.


@the deal Why would I sell ARM when revenues were up 37%?? Business is clearly still booming even with increased supply and competitionvfrom other players..

Exchange loss provisions can be written back as income at anytime the kshs improves so not much worries there..

Thats not to say that ARM is cheap, I just dont see any reason for it to fall.

When analysing a cement stock you focus on it's balance sheet i.e net debt/equity, cash flow/Share and energy costs...ARM has the weakest balance sheet among listed cement firms..in short ARM business model of borrowing to the neck is unsustainable...
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guru267
#12 Posted : Monday, November 07, 2011 10:24:10 PM
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the deal wrote:

When analysing a cement stock you focus on it's balance sheet i.e net debt/equity, cash flow/Share and energy costs...ARM has the weakest balance sheet among listed cement firms..in short ARM business model of borrowing to the neck is unsustainable...


If the debt is used to invest in projects that generate earnings and cashflow which can grow fast enough to service interest charges of the debt then I dont see what the problem is..

finance 101: Debt is always cheaper than equity my friend..
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Aguytrying
#13 Posted : Wednesday, May 09, 2012 11:01:52 PM
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Now that ARM is on an explainable rally to heaven and bamburi is languishing at a low price.
Anyway, How is the cement industry shaping up as regards competition(national cement, increasing capacity from ARM, Bamburi)?
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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