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Kenol Kobil HY 2011 - Profit Advice
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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the deal wrote:Thats what good companies do..they release official profits advice. Can't blame Kenyans..we'd rather profit warnings. LMAO!!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,223 Location: Nairobi
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ESOP dilution is 9% over 3 years [plus these are Options meaning the allotees will have to pay for them so lessening the 'effects' of the dilution] but I expect KK's profits [judging from history & confidence] to be much better over the 3 year period Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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CHECK THIS OUT 1h 2011 EPS will be more than for FY 2010 http://contrarianinvesti...011-earnings-profit.html
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/2/2009 Posts: 26,330 Location: Masada
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Is this share expected to touch a low of below 10 just before July 27th? Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/29/2006 Posts: 2,570
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Impunity wrote:Is this share expected to touch a low of below 10 just before July 27th? =>Did you sell too early? We are looking for 12/= plus. The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/2/2009 Posts: 26,330 Location: Masada
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@jerry bidded 11, not'yet picked!And not going below. Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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jerry wrote:Impunity wrote:Is this share expected to touch a low of below 10 just before July 27th? =>Did you sell too early? We are looking for 12/= plus. yes we are. Although 12.40 for me to be exact. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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mwekez@ji wrote:erifloss wrote:trizher wrote:
This is unreal....why put the announcement 1 and a half moons away?........any ideas?
I think it might be coz they are preparing to offer shares under ESOP soon as they had earlier announced and don't want an early drop in price if or when they release a timetable for the same due to dilution. Most ESOP have a lock in period of at least 3 years. KK ESOP is not likely to be an excemption to that lock in. In that case, the current share price will not be affected directly by the ESOP as the ESOP share be available for trading after the lock period They'll be getting a share of the dividends GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/29/2006 Posts: 2,570
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Impunity wrote:@jerry bidded 11, not'yet picked!And not going below. @Impunity. If it doesn't touch 11/= tomorrow I'll revise my target price. The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:erifloss wrote:trizher wrote:
This is unreal....why put the announcement 1 and a half moons away?........any ideas?
I think it might be coz they are preparing to offer shares under ESOP soon as they had earlier announced and don't want an early drop in price if or when they release a timetable for the same due to dilution. Most ESOP have a lock in period of at least 3 years. KK ESOP is not likely to be an excemption to that lock in. In that case, the current share price will not be affected directly by the ESOP as the ESOP share be available for trading after the lock period They'll be getting a share of the dividends The dividend cake will have to be shared by many company owners. EPS & PE ratios will be affected. Definitely there will be dilution. At least if they create a lock in period, the ESOP shares will not drive down the share price in the medium term. If they dont create a good lock in period, this stock is doomed
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,223 Location: Nairobi
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mwekez@ji wrote:youcan'tstopusnow wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:erifloss wrote:trizher wrote:
This is unreal....why put the announcement 1 and a half moons away?........any ideas?
I think it might be coz they are preparing to offer shares under ESOP soon as they had earlier announced and don't want an early drop in price if or when they release a timetable for the same due to dilution. Most ESOP have a lock in period of at least 3 years. KK ESOP is not likely to be an excemption to that lock in. In that case, the current share price will not be affected directly by the ESOP as the ESOP share be available for trading after the lock period They'll be getting a share of the dividends The dividend cake will have to be shared by many company owners. EPS & PE ratios will be affected. Definitely there will be dilution. At least if they create a lock in period, the ESOP shares will not drive down the share price in the medium term. If they dont create a good lock in period, this stock is doomed Only vested/issued shares are eligible for dividends. And no the stock is not doomed even if all the shares in the ESOP vest immediately... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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jerry wrote:Impunity wrote:@jerry bidded 11, not'yet picked!And not going below. @Impunity. If it doesn't touch 11/= tomorrow I'll revise my target price. Is it that this share is slow in reacting to good news or is it that it is totally immune to the news 
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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VituVingiSana wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:youcan'tstopusnow wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:erifloss wrote:trizher wrote:
This is unreal....why put the announcement 1 and a half moons away?........any ideas?
I think it might be coz they are preparing to offer shares under ESOP soon as they had earlier announced and don't want an early drop in price if or when they release a timetable for the same due to dilution. Most ESOP have a lock in period of at least 3 years. KK ESOP is not likely to be an excemption to that lock in. In that case, the current share price will not be affected directly by the ESOP as the ESOP share be available for trading after the lock period They'll be getting a share of the dividends The dividend cake will have to be shared by many company owners. EPS & PE ratios will be affected. Definitely there will be dilution. At least if they create a lock in period, the ESOP shares will not drive down the share price in the medium term. If they dont create a good lock in period, this stock is doomed Only vested/issued shares are eligible for dividends. And no the stock is not doomed even if all the shares in the ESOP vest immediately... When they implement the ESOP, the shares under ESOP will become issued shares qualifying for dividend in the coming periods
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:the deal wrote:Thats what good companies do..they release official profits advice. Can't blame Kenyans..we'd rather profit warnings. LMAO!!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,223 Location: Nairobi
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Aarrghhh! I give up. Let folks read the Financial Statements & make their own conclusions... I recommend folks sell their KK when I am ready to buy! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,621
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Individuals have very different way of looking at things,i have bought into KK from a price of 55 and at progressively higher prices thereafter,after the profit advise which only confirmed a growth trajectory that i like,i am buying all the way to 12 bob,cash allowing.No selling for the next 2 years ,unless of course it quickly rises to the higher 10s.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,223 Location: Nairobi
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cnn wrote: Individuals have very different way of looking at things,i have bought into KK from a price of 55 and at progressively higher prices thereafter,after the profit advise which only confirmed a growth trajectory that i like,i am buying all the way to 12 bob,cash allowing.No selling for the next 2 years ,unless of course it quickly rises to the higher 10s. One of those IF I had the cash & biwott were to sell his shares... I would buy up the entire firm less the ESOP (to encourage the employees)... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/26/2006 Posts: 440 Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
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mwekez@ji wrote:youcan'tstopusnow wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:erifloss wrote:trizher wrote:
This is unreal....why put the announcement 1 and a half moons away?........any ideas?
I think it might be coz they are preparing to offer shares under ESOP soon as they had earlier announced and don't want an early drop in price if or when they release a timetable for the same due to dilution. Most ESOP have a lock in period of at least 3 years. KK ESOP is not likely to be an excemption to that lock in. In that case, the current share price will not be affected directly by the ESOP as the ESOP share be available for trading after the lock period They'll be getting a share of the dividends The dividend cake will have to be shared by many company owners. EPS & PE ratios will be affected. Definitely there will be dilution. At least if they create a lock in period, the ESOP shares will not drive down the share price in the medium term. If they dont create a good lock in period, this stock is doomed The Dilutional Effect on the issue of 140M ESOP shares is: 140M/1472M x 100% = 9.5% Half year 2011 vs Half Year 2010 (Net Profit) will be > 50%. If my shareholding is to be diluted at 9.5% so that employees are motivated to give me a return on my investment of > 50%, thats makes investment sense!! Am gaining > 40% in EPS, so how can the share be doomed? For the year 2011,this company if it maintains the momentum will be posting an EPS of between Ksh 2 - Ksh 2.2 and with its generous dividend policy, the total dividends for 2011 should be approximately between Ksh 0.75 - Ksh 1.00. As i posted earlier, any price below Ksh 15 for this share is a steal. My exit target for my sizeable KK holding is a price of Ksh 20 in March 2013 (100% capital gain in 20 months). Happy hunting.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,223 Location: Nairobi
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Dear @Stocksmaster, please delete your post. I am still a buyer & I do not want people to get moto moto over KK. Sincerely, VVS Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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VituVingiSana wrote:Dear @Stocksmaster, please delete your post. I am still a buyer & I do not want people to get moto moto over KK. Sincerely, VVS Seconded, and I already have a nice chunk  .
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