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Short selling. This would make NSE rather interesting.
jammo
#1 Posted : Thursday, September 18, 2008 8:32:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/12/2008
Posts: 345
At midnight today(thursday) a ban by the FSA(equivalent to our CMA) on shortselling in publicly listed financial counters in the London Stock Exchange will take effect. The ban remains in place till mid january 08 although it will be up for review every 30days. The American equivalent has issued tougher rules on short selling too. Requiring seller to deliver shares within 3days.
Short sellin is when i sell shares i don't own on speculation that it will fall in price. Eg Equity is at 170...and its rather very probable it will fall further to 120level...plus i don't own any. So i go to broker,put order to sell 1000 equity at 170...remember i don't have. Someone buys my shares at 170 today...I have 5days to deliver the shares..so..if within 3days the share falls as expected..i buy them..then on day 5..my 1000shares bought at 120 are delivered to the buyer of the shares i sold on day 1 at 170...the profit of 50bob i pocket. Cool don't u think? It should be introduced here! What do you think. The opposite of that is what we do. Going long..buyin on premise that share price will rise. It pays to read. This will be a reality here some day.

' I have heard of You,o Lord. Now mine eyes have seen thee!! Baal-Perazim.. The Lord of the Breakthrough!!'
jammo
#2 Posted : Friday, September 19, 2008 3:39:00 AM
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Joined: 2/12/2008
Posts: 345
@riggi. Gues u are right. However..its one way of makin money on a downward market. If investors are informed it shouldn't be an issue.(unfortunately kenyans are one vichwa ngumu lot...in a show-me-the-money-knowledge-kitu-gani kind of thinking.) Anyway,at some point it will come. Just hope I'll be alive and and as dexterious to be part of it!

' I have heard of You,o Lord. Now mine eyes have seen thee!! Baal-Perazim.. The Lord of the Breakthrough!!'
Sober
#3 Posted : Friday, September 19, 2008 4:57:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
we are just not mature enough for such a service at the NSE. In am market where prices respond more to social happening rather than economic fundamentals,we have some long way to go.
if it is introduced,it may be misused or even lead to exploitation.

A likely impossibility is always preferable to an unconvincing posibility.
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
Hi-Lo
#4 Posted : Friday, September 19, 2008 5:24:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/5/2007
Posts: 91
With so many conmen around...suppose one sells from empty CDS...gets paid...but instead of buying shares to deliver to buyer,goes into hiding!! Pyramid?? However I realise it's a great idea to make money in a falling market...actually the only way at the NSE where there are no 'Higher Lows' but straight smooth fall into abyss....

Hey...Somebody might make a killing out of me...?!
jammo
#5 Posted : Friday, September 19, 2008 5:24:00 AM
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Joined: 2/12/2008
Posts: 345
@HI-LO...wiki-pede the topic. Read through.cut down on the suspicion.


@sober......I'm thinkin we all intend to grow in our investments and financial markets business..at some point u will be big enough to go to more developed stock markets. Am particularly itchin for th London Exchange..the least to do is learn about it.after all,If the mountain won't come to th prophet,the prophet will go to the mountain! are their skerians here who'v invested in markets where this is allowed? We'd love ur response.

' I have heard of You,o Lord. Now mine eyes have seen thee!! Baal-Perazim.. The Lord of the Breakthrough!!'
Ali Baba
#6 Posted : Friday, September 19, 2008 6:04:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/29/2008
Posts: 571
I have invested in NYSE,Wall Street where that is practised.I have friends(and relatives)who day trade.Personally,I'm not a fun of day trading.I invest for the long haul.More than ten years.In my opinion,short selling and day trading,is a sure recipe for disaster.I don't think time is ripe for CMA to allow it in NSE.However,that's my opinion.

Ali Baba
Njunge
#7 Posted : Friday, September 19, 2008 6:13:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
@Jammo,

In less than 48 hours,your double amuse me.....You are obviously a novice even in stocks..!
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
jammo
#8 Posted : Friday, September 19, 2008 6:49:00 AM
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Joined: 2/12/2008
Posts: 345
@njung'e... I probably am. Anyway..u kno i trade more in short term..than go long..am in stocks more for business and shortselling falls on business side..rather than investing. I watched news last nyt on as the FSE fielded questions on banning short tradin in financial counters.. Purpose of this thread is learn more about Short trading. If that means bein novice..no problem. But give ur thought on short selling. Much i kno of it i read in kiyosaki's books and it didn't make sense.

' I have heard of You,o Lord. Now mine eyes have seen thee!! Baal-Perazim.. The Lord of the Breakthrough!!'
PONDI
#9 Posted : Friday, September 19, 2008 7:07:00 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/8/2007
Posts: 885
@jammo..if the other bigger,better run markets,with better internal controls etc etc deem it unwise to allow short selling,why should our chaotic NSE allow it?
eli
#10 Posted : Friday, September 19, 2008 7:48:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/17/2008
Posts: 294
I am still digesting and by the way,what if it doesn't work! So you pay for the losses! Because in your post,you are optimistic and made a 50bob profit. What of the opposite,and you make a loss! What happens!

www.thedoxa.net
Live Wire
#11 Posted : Friday, September 19, 2008 7:48:00 AM
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Joined: 8/15/2008
Posts: 26
Location: Kampala
in Short selling,one trades a stock that they don't own in anticipation that the price will fall further,buy the stock cheaper and repay the broker. what happens when the stock price does not fall and rises instead? if you could not buy with your own money then I assume you don't have money to pay back at a higher price. Then what?

I may be Subdued but am not Vanquished.
Dont work Hard,work Smart
jammo
#12 Posted : Friday, September 19, 2008 7:55:00 AM
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Joined: 2/12/2008
Posts: 345
@Eli.. U must deliver what u sell..and within stipulated trade period. So if price goes up tough luck for me coz i MUST deliver what i sold. @pondi,..shortsellin happens..That's what i'm tryin learn..what it is,how it works upside,downside,all other factors remainin constant what would happen if it were here..... Just an open discussion. As i said..people buy shares to invest..others..me included do it as a business too. It may not..or cannot work here..but its workin out there...and soon enuf i will go out there. Its good to prepare.

' I have heard of You,o Lord. Now mine eyes have seen thee!! Baal-Perazim.. The Lord of the Breakthrough!!'
Mainat
#13 Posted : Friday, September 19, 2008 8:04:00 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Lets look at how short selling really works using Equity as an example.

I go to Njung'e and borrow 1m Equity shares from him. At the time Equity's shareprice is ksh200. I pay him a fee of ksh10 for each share.

Over the next two or three weeks I'll sell the shares say in bunches of 100,000 shares everyday or every other day. At the end of the period,I'll almost certainly succeed in driving the price down to a ksh100.

I then proceed to buy up the same 1m shares over say 5 days leaving the price at say ksh150.

In say a month,I'll have made around ksh40m.

But what about the real Equity shareholders?


www.mjengakenya.blogspot.com
Sehemu ndio nyumba
mfaidi
#14 Posted : Friday, September 19, 2008 8:19:00 AM
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Joined: 9/17/2008
Posts: 1
An important component of this whole thing is payment of some kind of commission to the true 'owner' of the shares.

I doubt the practice is legal at the NSE but one thing I can assure you is jamaaz in the brokerage community have been secretly practiced it for years (without the commission part for the owner of the share). I'd suspect that this is part of what guys at Nyaga and F Thuo must have over-indulged in and got caught in the middle of it.

Of course,this practice creates a bunch of guys who are happy when prices fall and hence tends to support and prolong bears. I'm dead sure it would increase vibrance in the market.

Outperforming the majority of investors requires doing what they are not doing. Buy when pessimism is at its maximum.
Hi-Lo
#15 Posted : Friday, September 19, 2008 8:35:00 AM
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Joined: 10/5/2007
Posts: 91
@Mainat...that's sounds a precise illustration of short selling. If that's what it is then it's ripe for NSE since the stock lender/borrower will have secured one another outside the market,may be with a plot. Deliberately driving stock prices up/down is the stock-in-trade at NSE (see today's market for evidence). I'd say its a good product...having once inadvertently benefited immensily from a Sameer price rally from 15 to 38 in a week...before it fizzled to 7 in the next week!!!




Hey...Somebody might make a killing out of me...?!
mlefu
#16 Posted : Friday, September 19, 2008 9:20:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/11/2007
Posts: 1,680
Location: nairobi
watu hupotea..lakini hapa..sk mnanipoteza!

muthomi mugi aiikagia maitho kabere...
Phantom777ish
#17 Posted : Friday, September 19, 2008 9:53:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/11/2008
Posts: 1
The rule put in place by the FSA was a wake-up call because of the HBOS saga. The short selling idea seems very good on paper,but I don't understand how it could make the market vibrant when it almost always benefits a few guys even in the so called developed market. Its easy to say I walk up to someone and borrow so much shares but who lends the shares and who borrows. Am sure the borrower is almost always a fund manager or a market veteran so to me its still an exclusive club.And if it was open to everyone,the only vibrancy felt would be a crush!! Spurring the market for individual gains should be stumped out everywhere!! They are saying that last year alone, £ 7billion was paid to traders as bonus' in London alone,no wonder they are taking so much risk with clients' money!

Money may not be able to buy you happiness,but it makes the unhappiness tolerable!
Ali Baba
#18 Posted : Friday, September 19, 2008 11:52:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/29/2008
Posts: 571
I'm a longterm investor.So,when you guys talk of buying and selling stocks like a business,it makes me wonder.Why don't you guys start a supermarket where the cash register will never stop ringing as sales are concluded?That's a better idea.You are always guaranteed of buying cheap from suppliers and selling high to your retail customers.But stocks??Volatility makes them not to be a very good commodity for trading.

Ali Baba
Wendz
#19 Posted : Friday, September 19, 2008 12:33:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/19/2008
Posts: 4,268
Actually,shortselling is the most interesting form of 'business' you can do.

what has been illustrated by Jammo and Mainat about how it works is correct. Just to add a point on Mainat's question on what happens to the real owners:

What really happens in the markets where this is allowed is that customers are allowed to buy shares on credit. hence you can go to AIB,buy 10,000 shares of equity but only pay for 5,000 shares. AIB then funds the other 5,000 shares but it remains in their name for security purposes but it is ideally yours. The AIB funded 5,000 shares is what the trader goes to borrow. this is because,you as the 'owner' of 10,000 equity shares,has only paid for 5,000 shares. so even if it got lost,you wont necessarily loose that much. but because you are paying an interest on this borrowed 5,000,the broker has to ensure that he keeps the shares for you. Mostly,these brokers know what kind of an investor you are. If you are like Jammo,they wont touch your equity shares because they know you will be coming for them any minute,if you are the long haul guys,they play the game with your 'borrowed' shares. Should you requier your shares and the broker has already lent them out,then he goes to another broker and borrows or allocates other shares from another customer but these shares have to be in the 'borrowed' category i.e,the customer had also not paid for them,in similar terms. sometimes they may make a loss,but mostly they do make profits and they are cautious the time frame they give. Mostly,its only the broker who can lend coz he is the one who holds the 'borrowed' shares.

I hope this makes alittle bit of sense.

Remember to read this together with Jammo's and Mainat's explanations.

Some deals are like glass. Sometimes it's better to leave them broken than try to hurt yourself putting it back together.
half_empty
#20 Posted : Friday, September 19, 2008 12:37:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/23/2007
Posts: 127
It just occurred to me that short selling has been going on in NSE behind our back for some time now… otherwise how do you explain when my shares go missing from the cds account … and later on they materialise after raising hell with your broker … and voila the broker credits them back to your account… no more questions… but wait a minute… for how long has your broker been 'borrowing' your shares without your knowledge???






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