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KENOL/KOBIL
Cde Monomotapa
#1781 Posted : Friday, May 27, 2011 9:51:12 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
I am saying KK will buy refined fuels cheaper from UG (cheaper shipping, insurance, No KPRL, no pirates, ullage charges) do u see where i am coming from. I do not need KK drilling any wells please.
erifloss
#1782 Posted : Friday, May 27, 2011 12:23:02 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
I am saying KK will buy refined fuels cheaper from UG (cheaper shipping, insurance, No KPRL, no pirates, ullage charges) do u see where i am coming from. I do not need KK drilling any wells please.

So will the other OMCs. Remember KK is not running a regional monopoly & remember that shell with the Helios money & shell(Holland's) capabilities will be at a greater advantage as they've got West African experience (Niger delta) and know how to play ball in Africa & i mean as a wholesome oil company & not only as an OMC. Next steps in Total, with their French money & expertise they'll want the best piece of the piece. Chevron is planning a comeback through UG and remember they are not only an OMC but a wholesome oil company. Nobody is actually telling me how kk has strategically positioned itself to gain from UG.
Actually from my perspective the biggest loser might be kk coz:
1. With the wars kk is having with the govt it will be hard for them to be in good books with M7 as he wants to be in good books with the Kenyan govt coz of the EA presidency.
2. Being able to play around with their stocks at high seas by taking them to other EA countries for profitability purposes will be hard as the other OMCs in those countries will have the opportunity as them of accessing cheaper oil from UG.
Now can someone tell me what concessions, contracts, deals or whatever they have in place to be the best placed OMC.
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
VituVingiSana
#1783 Posted : Friday, May 27, 2011 12:52:26 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
@erifloss - Simple. KK is the best managed firm!

The rest is just noise. By the time the REFINERY in Uganda is ready... Besigye might be president unless m7 'buys' another term.

The best case for a refinery to be running is 2014 but a small one just for Uganda's needs.

Kibaki will be gone by 2013 so will (I hope) kiraitu. Also after 2012, the ministers will (hopefully) be vetted & professionals not the current corrupt bunch.

KK is growing regionally. And what I have seen them do, they will continue doing so for the next 5 years.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
The Merchant
#1784 Posted : Friday, May 27, 2011 4:28:16 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
VituVingiSana wrote:
@erifloss - Simple. KK is the best managed firm!

The rest is just noise. By the time the REFINERY in Uganda is ready... Besigye might be president unless m7 'buys' another term.

The best case for a refinery to be running is 2014 but a small one just for Uganda's needs.

Kibaki will be gone by 2013 so will (I hope) kiraitu. Also after 2012, the ministers will (hopefully) be vetted & professionals not the current corrupt bunch.

KK is growing regionally. And what I have seen them do, they will continue doing so for the next 5 years.

Your conviction is admirable.Applause
Cde Monomotapa
#1785 Posted : Friday, May 27, 2011 4:31:17 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
I am simply talking about KK's probabilty of increasing its margins by positioning itself strategically. The rest of the tons of info u've provided I am not concernd about.
VituVingiSana
#1786 Posted : Friday, May 27, 2011 6:06:34 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
I am simply talking about KK's probabilty of increasing its margins by positioning itself strategically. The rest of the tons of info u've provided I am not concernd about.
Huh? How can you look at one aspect [margins] and discount the rest? Please provide your logic... coz I can't make much of your comment/s except varying margins.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Cde Monomotapa
#1787 Posted : Friday, May 27, 2011 8:00:54 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
1st of all I was reffering to erifloss's "lecture" being info-overload. 2ndly I was expressing my thoughts on how KK can possibly increase its margins by being smart coz higher margins=higher returns for shareholdrs. Look, I am not here to save the world, I found it as it is and playing my hand, so kila mtu ajipange..that is the essence of capitalism. So I watch KK and its response to mkt dynamics..if I like I hold, if I don't I sell. Kila mtu akule bidii yake generally.
erifloss
#1788 Posted : Friday, May 27, 2011 9:41:19 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
@cde, always look at a company from all perspectives and not one thus my info. overload always helps me in taking long term positions in different industries. At times its good & advisable to look at a company in wholesome case in point Satyam in India, investors learnt this the hard way coz everything was working well for them till they went haywire.
I believe a company is not only the profits you see on paper but the management, prospects, lobbying power within the industry, major suppliers & clients, core biz concentration etc. Apart from financial indicators i also use 5Cs to analyse a company. And when i do this with kk i don't find it so much of a good investment as most Wazuans tend to put it.
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
Cde Monomotapa
#1789 Posted : Friday, May 27, 2011 9:47:11 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
He he.as the E.A Cable Ad went.."wire si wire" thus, to me the NSE has 54* wires...so I own just 3 smile
VituVingiSana
#1790 Posted : Friday, May 27, 2011 9:52:49 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
1st of all I was reffering to erifloss's "lecture" being info-overload. 2ndly I was expressing my thoughts on how KK can possibly increase its margins by being smart coz higher margins=higher returns for shareholdrs. Look, I am not here to save the world, I found it as it is and playing my hand, so kila mtu ajipange..that is the essence of capitalism. So I watch KK and its response to mkt dynamics..if I like I hold, if I don't I sell. Kila mtu akule bidii yake generally.

So far KK has (somehow) managed to survive even in 2H last year when KPRL, MoE & ERC were all gunning for them.

KK has been buying 'storage' outside of Kenya too [not the briefcase dealer nonsense]. KK also owns various depots all over the country so storage adds up.

Finally, I have a feeling KK saw the ullage crap & attacked the problem by filling tankers & tanks at all petrol stations so they had fuel to sell while others did not!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
erifloss
#1791 Posted : Friday, May 27, 2011 10:02:32 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
@vvs, if Shell listed in Kenya today would you still stick with kk or go for shell?
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
Cde Monomotapa
#1792 Posted : Friday, May 27, 2011 11:12:25 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Shell Kenya faces almost the similar fate as Total Kenya by being subsidiaries of MNCs thus fully vunerable to the oil sector circus hence i'd still buy and hold KK who can mitigate/overcome the Kenyan mkt challenges due to its pan-african presence. ;-)
chaliwong
#1793 Posted : Friday, May 27, 2011 11:19:21 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 1/10/2010
Posts: 73
Location: kenya
erifloss wrote:
@cde, always look at a company from all perspectives and not one thus my info. overload always helps me in taking long term positions in different industries. At times its good & advisable to look at a company in wholesome case in point Satyam in India, investors learnt this the hard way coz everything was working well for them till they went haywire.
I believe a company is not only the profits you see on paper but the management, prospects, lobbying power within the industry, major suppliers & clients, core biz concentration etc. Apart from financial indicators i also use 5Cs to analyse a company. And when i do this with kk i don't find it so much of a good investment as most Wazuans tend to put it.


Just like Bharti is going haywire in kenya???? Is it something common with Indian companies??

Is there any company currently that is recording growth(Profits & Size)and its only dwelling on its core business???

e.g Safcom(M-Pesa,Data), Equity(Mortgage,Vision 2030) , KBL(Maji,Soda), ARM(Fertilizer), etc.
erifloss
#1794 Posted : Friday, May 27, 2011 11:55:46 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
Shell is truly Pan African i.e. from North Africa to SA while KK Ethiopia to near SA. Shell drills and refines oil in Nigeria & thus expertise not only in oil marketing in Africa but the real oil politics & intrigues, KK imports & markets oil. Shell has got the capability of patnering with world automobile players case in point Ferrari marketing V power while KK can only patner with our local players. Simply said, KK has to to look beyond fighting the govt on inefficiencies & looking at ways of making a better profit for the shareholders. Myself i would pick shell over KK.
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
Cde Monomotapa
#1795 Posted : Saturday, May 28, 2011 6:05:27 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
@Erifloss...if u were a fund manager I wouldn't give U a single cent of mine. JC!!
VituVingiSana
#1796 Posted : Saturday, May 28, 2011 8:34:45 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
@Erifloss...if u were a fund manager I wouldn't give U a single cent of mine. JC!!
Applause Applause Applause
There is NOTHING like Shell Africa. Even if there was you would have to look at the metrics/financials.

BTW, Shell has (almost fully) divested from most African downstream operations. The 'Shell' brand is being used by Vitol/Helios which owns the majority of downstream "Shell Africa".

Since I invest my own cash & do not have time for wet dreams... I will stick with KK while @erifloss waits for Shell Africa to list!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
erifloss
#1797 Posted : Saturday, May 28, 2011 10:13:39 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
@Erifloss...if u were a fund manager I wouldn't give U a single cent of mine. JC!!
Applause Applause Applause
There is NOTHING like Shell Africa. Even if there was you would have to look at the metrics/financials.

BTW, Shell has (almost fully) divested from most African downstream operations. The 'Shell' brand is being used by Vitol/Helios which owns the majority of downstream "Shell Africa".

Since I invest my own cash & do not have time for wet dreams... I will stick with KK while @erifloss waits for Shell Africa to list!

@vvs & cde, first i'm not trying to make shell a gem here but giving an example of it in comparison with kk which from my perspective is not that of a future gem as y'all are trying to make it seem. I know about the Vitol/Helios acquisition & if my memory serves me right the royal dutch shell plc is still a minority shareholder & did agree on the 2 investors using their brand & products thus making whatever you want to call the company an Associate of Shell for financial reporting purposes. Shell was not selling its downstream biz only in Africa but worldwide as its own strategic measure of concentrating on larger biz & to be precise in only 19 countries within Africa. Shell still carries out its exploration, natural gas, lubricant & refining biz in Africa meaning if MOE/ERB gives leeway to OMCs of importing refined fuel & the OMCs do so within Africa, chances are high they might be buying from Shell.
Within the 19 countries, shell has a total of 1,300 retail outlets with a combination of 4.7million cubic meters of storage capacity please compare that with KKs which has 222 retail outlets in 9 countries(zim still a prospect) & i bet its combined storage capacity can't even get next to Shell's. C'mon guys money is money, you want to tell me that if today you had a chance to invest in the company that owns these 1,300 retail outlets you'd still stick with the one man show, leave a company that has a chance to have concessions with an oil exploration firm, has a lobbying power in 19 African countries, the backing of Soro's money & influence & vitol(priceless worldwide oil trading, exploration & refining experience).
'money has got no soul, it doesn't care make it while you can as the next person making it doesn't care if you are not'
We all know biz shapes the politics of the day & vice versa thus KK should start by concentrating on making money & not war with everyone coz its breathing space might be made smaller.
A link on how the shell deal was closed. www.shell.com/home/conte..._agreement_19022011.html
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
VituVingiSana
#1798 Posted : Saturday, May 28, 2011 5:55:02 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
@erifloss - We are going nowhere so last comments on this matter of Shell Africa vs KK...

1) You do not own/buy shares in a firm with the largest asset base but that which has the best ROA/ROE e.g. 5 years ago Apple vs (then mighty) Microsoft. In 2011, those who invested in Apple are laughing even though Microsoft has higher sales, larger market share [then & now], etc. Apple's PROFITS were much higher.

2) Equity vs KCB. KCB has a much larger asset base against Equity Bank. Go back 5 years. Compare both. KCB was bigger in branches, staff, customers, assets, market cap... Leo ni leo. Equity is still smaller in assets & branches but PROFITS [& market value]...???

So if you want to buy into the biggest firm out there. Good. I will buy into the 'cheaper' firms that I hope will be most profitable on ROE basis!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
erifloss
#1799 Posted : Saturday, May 28, 2011 7:52:27 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
@vvs, all i'm trying to show is that all the hype around KK as this future gem as it stands right now is wrong.
1. Instead of being noisemakers, they should at least concentrate on lobbying for new legislature BAT or EABL style so as to get what they want.
2. Instead of being a one man show and thus being deprived of new ground breaking ideas, they should separate the responsibilities of the BOD from that of the Management by first having a non executive chairman & maybe reconstitute its management.
3. Instead of only divesting by opening retail business in different countries, they should also look into other lines of the oil business.
4. Globally, the business of oil is highly politicised as we globally are an oil driven economy & thus as an OMC you should always know the best way of dealing with the current politik.
5. Being only 2 listed OMCs, an illusion of comfort is always created by KK coz of its liquidity within the NSE & thus its price fluctuations when as per the last market survey the largest retailer in Kenya(largest oil market in EA) was Total though this doesn't mean that Total is better.
6. I know i'll be reminded of their profitability & growth but my query is do you see them sustaining this growth?
The reality is if KK never changes its way of doing biz, i see it as the biggest loser on UG's oil and thus not as a long term prospect.
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
VituVingiSana
#1800 Posted : Saturday, May 28, 2011 10:13:58 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
My comments in RED. Erm, @eriflos, unaishi Kenya ama ugambo?
erifloss wrote:
@vvs, all i'm trying to show is that all the hype around KK as this future gem as it stands right now is wrong.
1. Instead of being noisemakers, they should at least concentrate on lobbying for new legislature BAT or EABL style so as to get what they want.
So what your are saying if there is a wrong/crime committed against you, you should 'lobby' [an euphemism for bribe] your way to justice?
BAT also fights when Mastermind was favoured through changes in the rules/law but BAT is the 800-lb gorilla. They have publicly derided failure by Kenya police & customs to block counterfeits & smuggling. EABL tried o stop mututho laws through lobbying but failed. They are the only serious game in town. KK has only 20% market share.
2. Instead of being a one man show and thus being deprived of new ground breaking ideas, they should separate the responsibilities of the BOD from that of the Management by first having a non executive chairman & maybe reconstitute its management.
Maybe but that is for shareholders to decide. They seem happy with status quo. I am. It can be voted on by shareholders but I have seen no significant resistance
3. Instead of only divesting by opening retail business in different countries, they should also look into other lines of the oil business.
Why? What other lines? Do you have any idea who difficult [and resources required] for upstream projects? Do a little research. Even Tullow sold part of the interest in Uganda to Total & CNOOC coz of huge cash & technical requirements
4. Globally, the business of oil is highly politicised as we globally are an oil driven economy & thus as an OMC you should always know the best way of dealing with the current politik.
This is about corruption not politics. Are you saying we should accept corruption when politicians are invloved?
5. Being only 2 listed OMCs, an illusion of comfort is always created by KK coz of its liquidity within the NSE & thus its price fluctuations when as per the last market survey the largest retailer in Kenya(largest oil market in EA) was Total though this doesn't mean that Total is better.
KK does not generally comment on its shares, share prices or liquidity of its shares except when it communicates to investors and shareholders. Why do you think it is inappropriate to tell investors & shareholders?
6. I know i'll be reminded of their profitability & growth but my query is do you see them sustaining this growth?
Yes
The reality is if KK never changes its way of doing biz, i see it as the biggest loser on UG's oil and thus not as a long term prospect.
That is your opinion but Uganda's oil is not the be all for KK. Also there is Sudan's oil that may be pumped to Lamu. Uganda is 5 years away from having a 'large' refinery. See earlier discussion. In the meantime KK should kick the arses of all those who oppose it. Muhahaha!!! And make me RICH...

Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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