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Ati 17bob for Uchumi?
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mukiha
#1 Posted : Thursday, May 26, 2011 2:09:19 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
Hawa watu wawache mchezo!

As at 30 June 2010: EPS = 4.81 and this include a huge tax credit accounting for about half of the PAT. Thus REAL EPS is about 2.40.

At 17 bob, we looking a P/E of 7.

The NAV is about 8.5

Would you still by at 17?
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
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The Merchant
#2 Posted : Thursday, May 26, 2011 2:26:24 PM
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No i would not. But I would buy at 5 if some fellow out there wants to be rid of his burden. smile
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VituVingiSana
#3 Posted : Thursday, May 26, 2011 2:58:42 PM
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@mukiha - Please discount the PBT by 30% [I am note sure how much more of the tax credits are available] to get a 'normalized' EPS

I think we need to look at 1H 2010-11 earnings not just FY 2009-10 plus how many issued shares does Uchumi have today?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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the deal
#4 Posted : Thursday, May 26, 2011 2:59:33 PM
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Anybody with Uchumi shares and willing to sell at 17bob...we can conclude the transaction here...i want 5000 shares.
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yekeyeke
#5 Posted : Thursday, May 26, 2011 3:11:30 PM
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@ the deal.

At 17 bob i cant sell these to anyone and i have 150K shares. May be i can offload 20% when the price hits 25 bob.
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mukiha
#6 Posted : Thursday, May 26, 2011 3:13:35 PM
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Latest results are here: http://www.nse.co.ke/new...Announcements/Uchumi.pdf
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
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the deal
#7 Posted : Thursday, May 26, 2011 3:13:46 PM
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yekeyeke wrote:
@ the deal.

At 17 bob i cant sell these to anyone and i have 150K shares. May be i can offload 20% when the price hits 25 bob.

Pass me your email...150K is alot...just sell a fraction of that to me...sharing is caring you know.
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MatataMingi
#8 Posted : Thursday, May 26, 2011 3:21:28 PM
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@deal
I have 3000 shares. I had written them off. So now if they start trading again, I will hold on to them. If they go below 10/=, I will buy more.

Forget these guys who want to buy at 2 to 5 Shs.
I dont think that is going to happen because:

- Major shareholders can't sell for a year. therefore no big volumes on offer.
- Many of the smaller shareholders don't even have CDS`account, and can't start selling straigt away.
- Some like me will look at this as a godsend. Why sell now when you can "maybe" get a better price down the road.

Regards
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mukiha
#9 Posted : Thursday, May 26, 2011 3:22:48 PM
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[quote=mukiha]Latest results are here: http://www.nse.co.ke/new...nnouncements/Uchumi.pdf[/quote]
As at 31 Dec 2010:

PBT = 162m
TAX = 0[zero!!!!!!!!!]
PAT = 162m

Shares = 266million

EPS = 0.61

@VVS requires P/E of about 8, therefore he is willing to consider buying at Sh4.90

BTW, if you buy at 17, the P/E will be 28!!!!! one of the highest, for a company that has been out in the cold for 5 years...hhhmmmm
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
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the deal
#10 Posted : Thursday, May 26, 2011 3:27:33 PM
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Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
MatataMingi wrote:
@deal
I have 3000 shares. I had written them off. So now if they start trading again, I will hold on to them. If they go below 10/=, I will buy more.

Forget these guys who want to buy at 2 to 5 Shs.
I dont think that is going to happen because:

- Major shareholders can't sell for a year. therefore no big volumes on offer.
- Many of the smaller shareholders don't even have CDS`account, and can't start selling straigt away.
- Some like me will look at this as a godsend. Why sell now when you can "maybe" get a better price down the road.

Regards

Anybody u know you know who is willing to Sell?
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VituVingiSana
#11 Posted : Thursday, May 26, 2011 3:35:53 PM
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Joined: 1/3/2007
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Location: Nairobi
mukiha wrote:
[quote=mukiha]Latest results are here: http://www.nse.co.ke/new...nnouncements/Uchumi.pdf[/quote]
As at 31 Dec 2010:

PBT = 162m
TAX = 0[zero!!!!!!!!!]
PAT = 162m

Shares = 266million

EPS = 0.61

@VVS requires P/E of about 8, therefore he is willing to consider buying at Sh4.90

BTW, if you buy at 17, the P/E will be 28!!!!! one of the highest, for a company that has been out in the cold for 5 years...hhhmmmm
Year End is 30 June so you can 2x the EPS [assuming no taxes coz plenty of tax losses on the books]...

My 'normalized' calculations as follows:
PBT 162mn x 2 = 332mn [assuming same PBT as 1H]
Tax @ 30% = 100mn
PAT = 232mn

Now... 266mn (so far after dilution) shares means effective EPS of Shs 0.90

At 17/-... I will buy 1.7 KK shares rather than Uchumi!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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selah
#12 Posted : Thursday, May 26, 2011 3:54:00 PM
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Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
MatataMingi wrote:
@deal
I have 3000 shares. I had written them off. So now if they start trading again, I will hold on to them. If they go below 10/=, I will buy more.

Forget these guys who want to buy at 2 to 5 Shs.
I dont think that is going to happen because:

- Major shareholders can't sell for a year. therefore no big volumes on offer.
- Many of the smaller shareholders don't even have CDS`account, and can't start selling straigt away.
- Some like me will look at this as a godsend. Why sell now when you can "maybe" get a better price down the road.

Regards


I did the same mistake with AK now am getting a beating of my life @17 just sell everything you have got.

Here are My reasons.

1. The 17/= figure is a valuation carried by a company that was contracted by Uchumi.so you cant take that at face value.

2.The increasing Inflation will impact negatively in its growth this year the MD alluded to the same during his latest press briefing.

3.The market always determines the price and it would be foolhandy for you to hold shares which in one years time might face a considerable pressure as large shareholders try to get out or cash in .

4.The listing is probably intended to attract a strategic investor who would be willing to buy into a debt laden company.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
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Cicero
#13 Posted : Thursday, May 26, 2011 3:58:47 PM
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Joined: 7/7/2009
Posts: 111
I think it may be important to know if the tax credits will still be there. I think this may end up being the ball-buster either way you look at it. The half year profit after taxation was ~160M ... full year should be ~500M ... If we have take it that there will be 400M tax credit like before, then 900M divide by 260M shares = EPS = KES 3.50 ... which is really nice ...

But without the tax credit the profit after taxation was ~350M with an EPS of ~KES 1.20 ... not all that nice i think ...

What do you think?
Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it...
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githundi
#14 Posted : Friday, May 27, 2011 7:38:13 AM
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Joined: 11/19/2010
Posts: 1,308
Location: nairobi metropolitan
mukiha wrote:
[quote=mukiha]Latest results are here: http://www.nse.co.ke/new...nnouncements/Uchumi.pdf[/quote]
As at 31 Dec 2010:

PBT = 162m
TAX = 0[zero!!!!!!!!!]
PAT = 162m

Shares = 266million

EPS = 0.61

@VVS requires P/E of about 8, therefore he is willing to consider buying at Sh4.90

BTW, if you buy at 17, the P/E will be 28!!!!! one of the highest, for a company that has been out in the cold for 5 years...hhhmmmm

Agreed. I don't why people are using past figures. It is like bbk shareholders continually using last years figures because they appeared good. Am not buying uchumi as it might be overvalued say at kes 10. The guy who was talking about 17 was just mitigating the fall in share prices. As to whether he has succed, it is just a question. All in all best of luck to wazuans who hold uchumi.
Democracy does not belong to the dead
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yekeyeke
#15 Posted : Friday, May 27, 2011 9:49:05 AM
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Joined: 6/4/2008
Posts: 345
its not even 17 bob. We should be looking at 30bob

http://www.capitalfm.co....shares-listing-6125.html
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mkonomtupu
#16 Posted : Friday, May 27, 2011 12:00:19 PM
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Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
It looks like there might be a mad rush from buyers, considering this is a company that has grown its operations almost 4 times in the last five years I will up my price to 17-20/= I want 10,000/= shares to hold for five years, uchumi has a strong brand especially in Uganda and I feel with the oil production starting soon Uganda middle-class will explode. I really wish the market can deliver 12/=
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