Having looked at the market over the last 2/3 months, I think the NSE is unlikely to rise above 4,050 until 2013.
My reasons:
1. The political noise levels have frightened our banks from lending to the common mwananchi which means the economy won’t grow by more than 4.5%-5% and the banks themselves won’t make the kind of profits they did last year. The current noises are like having a neighbor who beats his wife every evening. He keeps you awake and you fear he may whip one evening. Banks are now chasing government securities and will continue to do so supported by
2. Higher interest rates: GoK overspend will continue between now and the new govt in 2013. This will entail higher borrowing (UK has already alluded to this in his budget statement last month).
3. Inflation is going one way: oil prices will probably standing heading downwards, but I expect inflation to stay because of
4. Patchy rains: our climate has changed and I expect rains to be followed by longer dry periods. We can change this (plant more trees), but in the meantime, we’ll see a higher population chasing less food. Patchy rains is also a problem given dependency on hydropower.

I agree 100% on the concern about patchy rains. The CBK in its latest bank survey indicated banks had already lent more in Jan & Feb 2011 than they did in all Q4 2010. Elec.should be sufficient, though expensive, with recent Kipevu 3 120MW. I also declare that 2012 will be very peaceful. I'd advise U against hanging on to what politicians r yapping about OTW oppurtunities will elude you. As for govt.spending, it needs money to live and sustain infrastructure devt.which is well with me.

It's to early to tell...the banks Q1 numbers will be a pointer wheather the NSE will carry the worst perfoming market in Africa tag for the whole year...LoL.

Greetings to you @mainat !!!

Times like this is pretty difficult for speculators.


For long termers it is ideal to build up with blue chips with high dividend yields.

It will be way above that in May. Q1 has been good for most companies despite high inflation, Ocampo and other things

Mainat, the NSE has tested the 4050 range

this bear market has really taught me alot..always wait for the right time to buy...
i really dnt see any futhure sell-off like the one we saw at the beginin of the year. i am of the opinion ( and i keep repeating) the weak hands have been shaken off by the January sell-off and now those who bought during the sell-off are holding for the long haul.
What would make all those buyers who bought in January cause a sell-off next year and yet they havent broken even on their purchases.Do you get my simple logic ?
the only event that can trigger a massive sell-off is violence.I hope there wount be any.

I think we are encouraging them to make noise...maybe, just maybe...if there is a rally and nobody shows up...that would be great...I think they will show us some respect and they will be serious on matters concerning the country...just my thought.

4071 at close today!