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where is the dollar going????
the deal
#21 Posted : Friday, May 13, 2011 8:03:13 PM
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Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
deal, is there a Mututho law in Namibia?

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
VituVingiSana
#22 Posted : Saturday, May 14, 2011 5:16:32 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,223
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
deal, is there a Mututho law in Namibia?

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Not in Namibia but Botswana has some serious mututho laws!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#23 Posted : Saturday, May 14, 2011 9:13:28 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
VituVingiSana wrote:
the deal wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
deal, is there a Mututho law in Namibia?

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Not in Namibia but Botswana has some serious mututho laws!

Yes @VVS its crazy in Botswana...NamBrew is charged 40% levy but according to their H1 2011 its a very lucritive market and theyre really hammering SABMiller.
mufasa
#24 Posted : Monday, May 16, 2011 9:19:41 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/15/2008
Posts: 217
Scubidu wrote:
Predictions on the dollar rebound; some say an easy 6%. But KES has a strong short term correlation with the US dollar index since Osama was buried in his "underwater cave". Can we rely the dollar index to set a medium term trend for KES?


foreign investors could be the biggest sellers in the NSE, they must have benefited big prior to the unprecedented 2007/08 elections bull run. With CBK relying on a floating dollar rate -we are left to rely on mkt factors such as global investment factor. And right now so many mkts are looking lucrative, case in point Egypt. Kenya's instability notwithstanding - The NSE seems set for gloomy days ahead with one or two unjustified spikes. NSE is Now good for long term only (3years and above). From this discussion, I have concluded that the dollar rate is neither here nor there
Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
kizee1
#25 Posted : Tuesday, May 17, 2011 9:04:47 PM
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Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
kes hit a new low against the usd today to trade at 86.70*80, though closed at 86.65*75 seems like we are headed to 88 or maybe 90 at this rate...cbk keep selling the local unit and real money flows also adding fuel to the flame..hard hard times ahead
VituVingiSana
#26 Posted : Tuesday, May 17, 2011 10:46:44 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,223
Location: Nairobi
I do not understand the logic behind CBK's moves... The KES dropping like a rock will mean higher imported inflation. At this rate I expect ANOTHER fuel price hike not coz oil prices have risen but KES is crashing!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
kizee1
#27 Posted : Tuesday, May 17, 2011 11:30:15 PM
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Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
I do not understand the logic behind CBK's moves... The KES dropping like a rock will mean higher imported inflation. At this rate I expect ANOTHER fuel price hike not coz oil prices have risen but KES is crashing!



very tru..cbk need to explain wat the rationale is their object as ive stated many times is price stability any action that contradicts this shud be avoided
hisah
#28 Posted : Wednesday, May 18, 2011 7:31:16 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
I will get my blasphemous 90/- as long as cbk keeps selling to buy euros & dollars. Their price stability objective seems to have been thrown out?! Since the ksh freefall started the dollar was getting battered in the global forex market. Now the euro is taking it in the chin & ksh is worse? Is the ksh really free float? If it is then the dollar rebound will crash it to alykhan's target of 100??! Brick wall
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Cde Monomotapa
#29 Posted : Wednesday, May 18, 2011 9:08:15 AM
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Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
CBK buying the Euro should tell us what Kenya and other nations like BRIC think about the USD as a forex reserve currency.
Cde Monomotapa
#30 Posted : Wednesday, May 18, 2011 9:10:25 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Nevertheless, I am beneficiary of a weak shilling smile technical expansion of net-worth.
kizee1
#31 Posted : Wednesday, May 18, 2011 10:12:11 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Nevertheless, I am beneficiary of a weak shilling smile technical expansion of net-worth.



what country are u based in?
mufasa
#32 Posted : Wednesday, May 18, 2011 3:47:53 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/15/2008
Posts: 217
dollar @ 87. NSE index heads downwards with it. I want to switch from trading shares to trading forex. This deal looks sweet, unless am missing something. why only Kes?
Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
Cde Monomotapa
#33 Posted : Wednesday, May 18, 2011 3:55:14 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
kizee1 wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Nevertheless, I am beneficiary of a weak shilling smile technical expansion of net-worth.



what country are u based in?

+254
VituVingiSana
#34 Posted : Wednesday, May 18, 2011 6:52:21 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,223
Location: Nairobi
If the $ hits 90... expect another fuel price increase on 14 June!!! A 5% depreciation of the KES means unless there is a 5% drop in oil prices, there is no way we will see lower fuel prices!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
kizee1
#35 Posted : Wednesday, May 18, 2011 10:15:37 PM
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Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
its looking overdone now though it cud weaken a tad further guess 88 in the cards...when this sucker turns it will leave many without their shirts...cbk will only support it upto their b/sheet date thereafter i predict they may start a tightening regime...heck even before then it wud be interesting to hear what the mpc's view on cbks malfeasances is
hisah
#36 Posted : Monday, May 23, 2011 8:35:12 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@Kizee1 - I have done a long term chart for the USDKES all the way back to Sept 1 2007 and this chart is USD bullish...!? If the Elliot Wave (EW) count is correct even Alykhan's target of 100/- is very mild?! This pair can easily shoot about 120 since the long term falling trend line has given way?! I know this sounds like dream stuff, but the chart never lies... If 2012 happens to be like 2007 with all the nasty PEV, that 120 figure will be surpassed!?
I'm hoping this thing hits 90 and reverses swiftly back under 80/- to stem the upcoming rally above the 100/- handle.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
kizee1
#37 Posted : Tuesday, May 24, 2011 10:06:49 AM
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Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
hisah..i dont disagree with waht ur saying, i just feel that the market is waaay to KES bearish and cbk have slowly started tightening, funding any short kes possys will become a nightmare again....also note that the mpc MAY hike CBR agrresively, rate differentials do count for something
mufasa
#38 Posted : Tuesday, May 24, 2011 11:06:24 AM
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Joined: 4/15/2008
Posts: 217
what is the cost of fuel now in Kenya?
Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
VituVingiSana
#39 Posted : Tuesday, May 24, 2011 1:37:00 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,223
Location: Nairobi
mufasa wrote:
what is the cost of fuel now in Kenya?

Getting interesting!

There are many 'fuels' but check ERC's website + prices depend on location.

KenolKobil gave a 5/- discount on Sunday
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
kizee1
#40 Posted : Tuesday, May 24, 2011 4:17:51 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
so IMF come out and say the following

1. that the country needs to increase external reserves
2. that the cbk should concentrate on tackling inflation as its principle priority
3.THAT A TIGHTENING POLICY WILL NOT HURT THE ECONOMY AND THAT THEY SEE 5.4PCT ECON GROWTH( THIS MEANS RATES WILL RISE RAPIDLY)

....given all this...the KES has rallied from a intra-day low of 86.90*87.00 to close at 86.30*86.40....my money is on the KES rallying
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