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NBK's Q1 2011 results the worst of the lot
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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PBT DOWN by 4% to Kshs 467,163K
PAT DOWN by an unprecedented 41.8% to Kshs 231,476K .
If NBK were to replicate this performance i.e. make 4 times the current PAT, this would result in a massive drop in the full year results.
Marambii had better pull up his socks!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/11/2010 Posts: 1,011 Location: nairobi
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i will only enter NBK when murambii is ousted(he will not quit) unless another kamzee is installed( will not be profetionally picked@
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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Interestingly, NBK grew their Balance Sheet by a fairly impressive 13% to 67.8B between Dec 2010 and March 2011. Note that this is ahead of the likes of NIC Bank. They have also managed to grow their loan book by 9 billion from 14.5B in March 2010 to 23.5 B as of March 2011 and reduced their Govt securities by about 10B from 28.7B to 18.8B.
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 3/15/2011 Posts: 33 Location: Nairobi
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NBK has really tried given where it has come from. I see aggressive marketing of their Loan so its no brainer that its growing this rapidly.
I see the share price stagnating at 35-45 levels for another year and probably this will change when GoK pulls put the bank.... may be during the next govt past 2012
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,221 Location: Nairobi
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The 'loss' is due to a write-down of Bonds Held for Trading. The core business has done well. I have a strong feeling some banks are going to be hurting in 2Q 2011 due to losses in their Bond Portfolios. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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I got mixed up on this post and ended up using the March 2011 results as my base rather than the Q1 2010 results to work out the changes. This resulted in an increase in PAT and a slight increase in PBT in my initial computations.  ON ME!!! However, my conclusion that NBK appeared to be in trouble remains. I have reviewed the results once more and made the necessary corrections on post no. 1 above. I take this early opportunity to unreservedly apologize to any person(s) who may have been misled by my earlier post.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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mwanahisa wrote:PBT DOWN by 4% to Kshs 467,163K
PAT DOWN by an unprecedented 41.8% to Kshs 231,476K .
If NBK were to replicate this performance i.e. make 4 times the current PAT, this would result in a massive drop in the full year results.
Marambii had better pull up his socks!  . Clearly NBK wont make you money in 2011 and NSSF wants more board seats...i see boardroom wrangles there soon.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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the deal wrote:. Clearly NBK wont make you money in 2011 and NSSF wants more board seats...i see boardroom wrangles there soon. @the deal, There are obviously problems brewing there, but if the truth be told, I would rather have NSSF in control of the board than guys who are apparently "accountable to nobody" and only owe their positions in the board to political connections.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/13/2009 Posts: 1,950 Location: in kenya
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the drop in PBT has greatly been attributed to drop in non interest income and increase in operational cost which Marambii should cap before it gets out of control. Growth in loan advances and customer deposit is a good sign given that the company has tried to reduce its Non performing loans compared to last year. The management blame revaluation of government bonds for this poor performance which seems to have dropped by about 10 billion. Given recent reports indicate small banks have performed poorly this year due to the same reason lets hope the management will get a magic bullet to shore up this losses in the second Q. '......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
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Rank: Member Joined: 12/15/2010 Posts: 162
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@selah, the recognised loss due to revaluation of government securities held for dealing purposes cannot be KES10B. The government securities held for dealing purposes have decreased from 10,788,688,000 (Dec2010) to 10,052,477,000 (Mar 2011). This is 736M decline and they must have traded some securities and transfered others to 'Held To Maturity'.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/1/2009 Posts: 2,436
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invest0r wrote:@selah, the recognised loss due to revaluation of government securities held for dealing purposes cannot be KES10B. The government securities held for dealing purposes have decreased from 10,788,688,000 (Dec2010) to 10,052,477,000 (Mar 2011). This is 736M decline and they must have traded some securities and transfered others to 'Held To Maturity'. very true, rising interest rates always subdue the bond markets and many banks and institutional investors are shifting their portfolios from HFT (trading) to HTM portfolios. So I expect NBK's HFT portfolio to be nil, and I don't expect them to make any losSes on their bond portfolio this year if they maintain their bond portfolio within their investment book (HTM).
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/8/2009 Posts: 170
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Intelligentsia wrote:invest0r wrote:they must have traded some securities and transfered others to 'Held To Maturity'. very true, rising interest rates always subdue the bond markets and many banks and institutional investors are shifting their portfolios from HFT (trading) to HTM portfolios. So I expect NBK's HFT portfolio to be nil, and I don't expect them to make any losSes on their bond portfolio this year if they maintain their bond portfolio within their investment book (HTM). 1. You can't do this willy-nilly... 2. Especially not with FVTPL! 3. How come nobody is talking about Insurance companies (& pension funds), are they that diversified?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,778 Location: NAIROBI
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Smart Move by NSSF in asking for more representaion in the board of NBK. NBK needs a new management and the face of Kenya in its board. Majority of the board is made up of meru Community who do not hold majority shareholding Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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Ericsson wrote:Smart Move by NSSF in asking for more representaion in the board of NBK.
NBK needs a new management and the face of Kenya in its board.
Majority of the board is made up of meru Community who do not hold majority shareholding NSSF having more seats on the board will delay the sell of NBK...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/13/2009 Posts: 1,950 Location: in kenya
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the deal wrote:Ericsson wrote:Smart Move by NSSF in asking for more representaion in the board of NBK.
NBK needs a new management and the face of Kenya in its board.
Majority of the board is made up of meru Community who do not hold majority shareholding NSSF having more seats on the board will delay the sell of NBK... How did you come up with that?all that I know the Govt will be offloading its share I dont think NSSF can stand on its way if the govt gets a strategic investor unless there are govt guarantees which needs to be paid. '......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,778 Location: NAIROBI
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I am talking about the situation as it is now. Govt will not be offloading its shareholding in NBK now that it is very profitable. Instead it will do a KPLC style whereby it will convert the preferential shares to ordinary shares then do a rights issue to slightly dilute its shareholding. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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selah wrote:the deal wrote:Ericsson wrote:Smart Move by NSSF in asking for more representaion in the board of NBK.
NBK needs a new management and the face of Kenya in its board.
Majority of the board is made up of meru Community who do not hold majority shareholding NSSF having more seats on the board will delay the sell of NBK... How did you come up with that?all that I know the Govt will be offloading its share I dont think NSSF can stand on its way if the govt gets a strategic investor unless there are govt guarantees which needs to be paid. Check out this storo www.businessdailyafrica....2/-/p8unthz/-/index.html
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/13/2009 Posts: 1,950 Location: in kenya
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@the deal the govt is arm twisting NSSF to sell its stake which I think NSSF is within its rights to refuse since its owned by pensioners Not the Govt.NSSF board of trustees have a responsibility to pensioners to make sure their investments are protected from government filthy hands. THe govt Should sell its 22% shareholding which is not in dispute. '......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
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Rank: Member Joined: 12/15/2010 Posts: 162
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drake wrote:Intelligentsia wrote:invest0r wrote:they must have traded some securities and transfered others to 'Held To Maturity'. very true, rising interest rates always subdue the bond markets and many banks and institutional investors are shifting their portfolios from HFT (trading) to HTM portfolios. So I expect NBK's HFT portfolio to be nil, and I don't expect them to make any losSes on their bond portfolio this year if they maintain their bond portfolio within their investment book (HTM). 1. You can't do this willy-nilly... 2. Especially not with FVTPL! 3. How come nobody is talking about Insurance companies (& pension funds), are they that diversified? @drake, Elaborate in simple language
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NBK's Q1 2011 results the worst of the lot
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