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BAT - A BUY at below 250
The Merchant
#21 Posted : Friday, May 20, 2011 11:22:36 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
sparkly wrote:
The Merchant wrote:
At 245 its a buy as a value stock. Check this out

Price to buy= ((year high-year low)*40%)+ year low)

Therefore for BAT,
Best price to buy is = ((300-196)*40%)+196)
= 237.60
Today's price= 245
Difference= 3%

This screams BUY to me. The only issue is whether all these fake cigarettes in the market will mess up the beautiful dividend policy of this stock.

I now await opinions,suggestions or just regular bashing. smile smile

@merchant hold on to your cash. BAT was overpriced under its standards, and due for a correction. Three things are not going well for the share currently.
1. Industry issues like counterfeits and claims of favouritism for MTK
2. Budget round the corner and excise on cigarretes expected to go up
3. The general bearish sentiments because of 2012, arab crisis, oil prices etc.
BAT has 2 distinct classes of shareholders: the institutions and the small time retailers. The institutions rarely sell, preferring dividend pickings while the retailers are more likely to react to factors such as above. The retailers have started reacting and the fall in price will only fuel the negative sentiment, causing further drops. The daily volumes rarely exceed 500 shares at such times. In conclusion if you want to pick small volumes, just wait as the retailers offload. I think 200 is possible during the year.

200!!!! I would sell my house for such a price...Oh well. IM with institutional investors on this one(long term). However Ill take your advise and not plunge my entire loot into it. Ill still BUY a chunk at this price though. smile Thanks alot.
2012
#22 Posted : Friday, May 20, 2011 11:53:34 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
I wouldn't touch BAT before this hungry government reads the budget next month. I know BAT has diversified well outside Kenya but Kenya is still the key market.
But who knows - BAT always seems to come out stronger every time when even seemingly impossible huddles are erected on their path.

BBI will solve it
:)
The Merchant
#23 Posted : Friday, May 20, 2011 12:31:10 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
2012 wrote:
I wouldn't touch BAT before this hungry government reads the budget next month. I know BAT has diversified well outside Kenya but Kenya is still the key market.
But who knows - BAT always seems to come out stronger every time when even seemingly impossible huddles are erected on their path.

Tell me about it. Very resilient stock this one is...
Kirika
#24 Posted : Friday, May 20, 2011 12:50:24 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/26/2011
Posts: 211
Location: Nairobi

You guys have just spiked my appetite for this one with your forecast of circa 200. My only worry is the P/E ratio of BAT.

A similar thread indicated Jubilee at circa 150 come elections next year.

Though BAT and Jubilee seem to be coming down albeit slowly,i will be patient, for my victims never miss my appointment.....
maskana
#25 Posted : Friday, May 20, 2011 8:25:02 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 1/8/2011
Posts: 48
Location: muranga
The Merchant wrote:
2012 wrote:
I wouldn't touch BAT before this hungry government reads the budget next month. I know BAT has diversified well outside Kenya but Kenya is still the key market.
But who knows - BAT always seems to come out stronger every time when even seemingly impossible huddles are erected on their path.

Tell me about it. Very resilient stock this one is...




Am on this one to take me through 2012 and into 2013 .......then review
sparkly
#26 Posted : Friday, May 20, 2011 8:55:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
PKoli wrote:
sparkly wrote:
The Merchant wrote:
At 245 its a buy as a value stock. Check this out

Price to buy= ((year high-year low)*40%)+ year low)

Therefore for BAT,
Best price to buy is = ((300-196)*40%)+196)
= 237.60
Today's price= 245
Difference= 3%

This screams BUY to me. The only issue is whether all these fake cigarettes in the market will mess up the beautiful dividend policy of this stock.

I now await opinions,suggestions or just regular bashing. smile smile

@merchant hold on to your cash. BAT was overpriced under its standards, and due for a correction. Three things are not going well for the share currently.
1. Industry issues like counterfeits and claims of favouritism for MTK
2. Budget round the corner and excise on cigarretes expected to go up
3. The general bearish sentiments because of 2012, arab crisis, oil prices etc.
BAT has 2 distinct classes of shareholders: the institutions and the small time retailers. The institutions rarely sell, preferring dividend pickings while the retailers are more likely to react to factors such as above. The retailers have started reacting and the fall in price will only fuel the negative sentiment, causing further drops. The daily volumes rarely exceed 500 shares at such times. In conclusion if you want to pick small volumes, just wait as the retailers offload. I think 200 is possible during the year.


What is the ownership structure of BAT? Free float?

As at last year the parent held 60%, nssf 8%. 92% held by corporate investors and 8% by individuals.
Life is short. Live passionately.
PKoli
#27 Posted : Friday, May 20, 2011 9:20:22 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
@Sparkly

Thanks, with such kind of ownership structure, it is unlikely BAT will take a huge dip. Only minor dips which will follow the entire market decline and will be characterized by thin volumes.
The Merchant
#28 Posted : Tuesday, August 09, 2011 12:18:18 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
Remember this thread. Well , up 6pc while the market tanks.
VituVingiSana
#29 Posted : Tuesday, August 09, 2011 12:36:11 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,223
Location: Nairobi
BAT at 250/- & falling... this market is taking no prisoners! Lakini with the lovely dividend from BAT... I am waiting for this counter with bated breath!

BTW, I do not smoke but once I pick up the shares... they should smoke even more if they want to... as long as its Sportsman & not that other brand!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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