Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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PKoli wrote:sparkly wrote:The Merchant wrote:At 245 its a buy as a value stock. Check this out Price to buy= ((year high-year low)*40%)+ year low) Therefore for BAT, Best price to buy is = ((300-196)*40%)+196) = 237.60 Today's price= 245 Difference= 3% This screams BUY to me. The only issue is whether all these fake cigarettes in the market will mess up the beautiful dividend policy of this stock. I now await opinions,suggestions or just regular bashing. @merchant hold on to your cash. BAT was overpriced under its standards, and due for a correction. Three things are not going well for the share currently. 1. Industry issues like counterfeits and claims of favouritism for MTK 2. Budget round the corner and excise on cigarretes expected to go up 3. The general bearish sentiments because of 2012, arab crisis, oil prices etc. BAT has 2 distinct classes of shareholders: the institutions and the small time retailers. The institutions rarely sell, preferring dividend pickings while the retailers are more likely to react to factors such as above. The retailers have started reacting and the fall in price will only fuel the negative sentiment, causing further drops. The daily volumes rarely exceed 500 shares at such times. In conclusion if you want to pick small volumes, just wait as the retailers offload. I think 200 is possible during the year. What is the ownership structure of BAT? Free float? As at last year the parent held 60%, nssf 8%. 92% held by corporate investors and 8% by individuals. Life is short. Live passionately.
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