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Tepid results from Barclays in Q1 2011
mwanahisa
#1 Posted : Tuesday, May 17, 2011 8:17:52 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
It is now official. Equity is the most profitable bank in Eastern Africa in Q1 2011. BBK have reported a dissapointing set of results with PAT going up by 11.54% to Kshs 1,531,840,000.

PBT went up by 20% to Kshs 2,404,412,000.

Operating income up by only 2% while operating expenses were reduced by 7%. It looks like BBK went in to a defensive mode rather early. Let's see whether this will prove to be a winning formula in these "bearish" times.

For now we can however say, BBK has surely been dethroned from the top of the pack by Equity and KCB while Coop is also showing it may just topple BBK as well.
Cde Monomotapa
#2 Posted : Tuesday, May 17, 2011 8:31:46 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
BBK...the investment for senior citizens...
Iborian
#3 Posted : Tuesday, May 17, 2011 9:05:34 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/17/2009
Posts: 194
Time to move over, or should I be saying Bend Over BBK?
mapengo
#4 Posted : Tuesday, May 17, 2011 9:38:39 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 1/20/2010
Posts: 27
Location: kenya
please share the link
the deal
#5 Posted : Tuesday, May 17, 2011 9:51:13 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Analysis here http://contrarianinvestingkenya.blogspot.com once i receive a scanned copy.
mkonomtupu
#6 Posted : Tuesday, May 17, 2011 10:31:03 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
11.54% is pitiful, the future does not look bright, BBK brand is no longer that classic as it was in the 90s, the home boys, Equity, KCB and Coop will run in the future just like UBA and Ecobank in west africa
the deal
#7 Posted : Tuesday, May 17, 2011 11:48:07 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Barclays Bank Kenya 1Q 2011 Earnings Analysis

Commentary
Like i anticipated there is a strong divergence between the perfomance of BBK compared to the perfomance of local banks such as Equity Bank, Diamond Trust Bank and Coop Bank, this is mainly due to the conservative nature of this foreign multinationals, their always reluctant to lend instead most of them focus on Bond trading, i expect them to struggle this year as income from bond trading declines (BBK -36% this quater). EPS for 1Q 2011 stands at Ksh 1.1 that gives a forward EPS of 4.4 if they keep the 1Q momentum which is way below the 2010 EPS of 7.8 (included the once off sell of their custodial business to Standard Chartered). At a forward PE of 15 BBK is a hold or reduce. NB: all calculations do not include shares from the recently announced 4 for every 1 split.

Entire article here http://contrarianinvesti...ya-1q-2011-earnings.html
QW25071985
#8 Posted : Tuesday, May 17, 2011 11:50:25 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/25/2011
Posts: 946
[quote=the deal]Barclays Bank Kenya 1Q 2011 Earnings Analysis

Commentary
Like i anticipated there is a strong divergence between the perfomance of BBK compared to the perfomance of local banks such as Equity Bank, Diamond Trust Bank and Coop Bank, this is mainly due to the conservative nature of this foreign multinationals, their always reluctant to lend instead most of them focus on Bond trading, i expect them to struggle this year as income from bond trading declines (BBK -36% this quater). EPS for 1Q 2011 stands at Ksh 1.1 that gives a forward EPS of 4.4 if they keep the 1Q momentum which is way below the 2010 EPS of 7.8 (included the once off sell of their custodial business to Standard Chartered). At a forward PE of 15 BBK is a hold or reduce. NB: all calculations do not include shares from the recently announced 4 for every 1 split.

Entire article here http://contrarianinvesti...a-1q-2011-earnings.html[/quote]

wld have clicked the 'like' button if i cld..its nice keep up.
gathinga
#9 Posted : Tuesday, May 17, 2011 12:03:47 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/30/2006
Posts: 635
"The performance of the bank is reflective of the high exposure to interest rate volatility due to the high contribution of interest income to total operating income -72%. Given this position, we are pessimistic on the bank’s short term outlook. " Quoting Sterling Securities analyst today
The Merchant
#10 Posted : Tuesday, May 17, 2011 12:25:29 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
Banks to BUY, in order (YBC style, I know....):
1. Equity: Massive growth, more expected
2. KCB: Good reforms, if they cut costs they will give equity a run for their money and boost investor returns
3. DTB: Always inching up, up , up....The leader in the mid-tier banks. Its follwed closely by
4.NIC: Its a BUY at current prices. Best corporate governance out there btw almost like
5. I&M Bank Ltd:...Ooops, not listed but when it is, buy quickly. I know something you don't. ;-)
Cde Monomotapa
#11 Posted : Tuesday, May 17, 2011 12:39:05 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Buy City Trust to get a piece of I&M - that's if you can get them smile
the deal
#12 Posted : Tuesday, May 17, 2011 12:45:03 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
short DTB...its overbought...expensive...EY EPS will be down by 10%
Gadaffi
#13 Posted : Tuesday, May 17, 2011 1:46:02 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/13/2011
Posts: 284
Location: Nairobi
The Merchant wrote:
Banks to BUY, in order (YBC style, I know....):
1. Equity: Massive growth, more expected
2. KCB: Good reforms, if they cut costs they will give equity a run for their money and boost investor returns
3. DTB: Always inching up, up , up....The leader in the mid-tier banks. Its follwed closely by
4.NIC: Its a BUY at current prices. Best corporate governance out there btw almost like
5. I&M Bank Ltd:...Ooops, not listed but when it is, buy quickly. I know something you don't. ;-)

i dont quite agree with ur order.
DTB price at present is way overpriced and i dont think it can go much higher.
KCB n Equity cant manage a growth of more than 20% in the short term.
NIC bank is a good choise. to add to the list can be NBK. the two have a higher projection in terms a share price n appear underpriced.
youcan'tstopusnow
#14 Posted : Tuesday, May 17, 2011 1:55:17 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
BBK...the investment for senior citizens...

Hear! Hear!
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
Aguytrying
#15 Posted : Tuesday, May 17, 2011 2:37:25 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
I agree dtb will go down, but it is not overpriced. Its pe is reasonable compared to the industry
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Cde Monomotapa
#16 Posted : Tuesday, May 17, 2011 2:43:38 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
BBK...the investment for senior citizens...

Hear! Hear!

Who were young adults like me when they bought in.
MaichBlack
#17 Posted : Tuesday, May 17, 2011 2:54:22 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,567
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
BBK...the investment for senior citizens...

Most definitely. Stability/security trumps growth/risk when it comes to senior citizens.
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
The Merchant
#18 Posted : Tuesday, May 17, 2011 3:10:28 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
Gadaffi wrote:
The Merchant wrote:
Banks to BUY, in order (YBC style, I know....):
1. Equity: Massive growth, more expected
2. KCB: Good reforms, if they cut costs they will give equity a run for their money and boost investor returns
3. DTB: Always inching up, up , up....The leader in the mid-tier banks. Its follwed closely by
4.NIC: Its a BUY at current prices. Best corporate governance out there btw almost like
5. I&M Bank Ltd:...Ooops, not listed but when it is, buy quickly. I know something you don't. ;-)

i dont quite agree with ur order.
DTB price at present is way overpriced and i dont think it can go much higher.
KCB n Equity cant manage a growth of more than 20% in the short term.
NIC bank is a good choise. to add to the list can be NBK. the two have a higher projection in terms a share price n appear underpriced.

What exactly makes you say that KCB & Equity have reached the end of the road interms of growth? These banks have a loooong way to go if they are to be in the same league as other panafrican banks eg ecobank & uba... The population & economy of EA is growing and for this to be sustainable they have abig role to play. If you do not have faith in the growth of these 2 banks, then you do not have faith in the growth of the EA economy, now or ever.
DTB overpriced? I think you mean overheated. Its price just shot up so it may experience some correction but I would hesitate to call it overpriced. It has alooooong way to go also.
NIC & I&M Bank we seem to agree on. Im not touching BBK or SCB. Not soon anyway.Shame on you
youcan'tstopusnow
#19 Posted : Tuesday, May 17, 2011 6:15:17 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Iborian wrote:
Time to move over, or should I be saying Bend Over BBK?

BBK should have gone for that Swaggerific concert at KICC...
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
VituVingiSana
#20 Posted : Tuesday, May 17, 2011 6:55:48 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,221
Location: Nairobi
@TheMerchant - Tell me more about I&M Bank. They did a Private Placement last year @ 935 but the thresh-hold was 22,000 shares!!!

[I asked SIB the lead/sponsoring brokers who said CMA wanted I&M to have a MAXIMUM of 99 shareholders - something in the Company Act or CMA Rules - but when the CMA approves 99+ shareholders then others can buy. Seems the next step is being public without a listing like Deacons]

Has it released 1Q 2011 results?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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