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Impact of full county roll-out on various industries and stocks
Rank: New-farer Joined: 3/10/2011 Posts: 18
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This may have been asked and answered but did not find any trace. What industries will be affected - negatively or positively - when the full impact of the county roll-out is felt from 2012 and which stocks will be affected? Taking into account the expected heavy recurrent expenditure burden on treasury.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,224 Location: Nairobi
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Those that supply goods & services to government institutions... yaani, if you are 'connected'... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/18/2011 Posts: 12,069 Location: Kianjokoma
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I believe county governments are overhyped. There is no major difference between them and local authorities ie current councils. I do not expect any major improvement of earnings for any stock based on this.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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VituVingiSana wrote:Those that supply goods & services to government institutions... yaani, if you are 'connected'...  In the aftermath of regime change, the 'connected' firms may change GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Banks, Cement & Energy stocks.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/9/2009 Posts: 6,592 Location: Nairobi
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I can only see positive effects. Fast moving consumer goods (FMCGs) will be the most affected in my opinion because counties will find ways of manufacturing the items themselves. I don't see why anyone will need to bring in basics like milk, bread, cooking oil, soaps etc from other county while there's a high number of unemployed youth within that county unless it's not naturally available. I see many small industries coming up by 2015 that will challenge major industries like the breweries, toothpastes etc. People currently working in these sectors have a great opportunity to set up industries at home. Banks will be laughing all the way as usual.
BBI will solve it :)
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 10/17/2008 Posts: 1,234
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2012 wrote:I can only see positive effects. Fast moving consumer goods (FMCGs) will be the most affected in my opinion because counties will find ways of manufacturing the items themselves. I don't see why anyone will need to bring in basics like milk, bread, cooking oil, soaps etc from other county while there's a high number of unemployed youth within that county unless it's not naturally available. I see many small industries coming up by 2015 that will challenge major industries like the breweries, toothpastes etc. People currently working in these sectors have a great opportunity to set up industries at home. Banks will be laughing all the way as usual. While some might do well, most will hardly survive in light of competing cheaper products from abroad and current big players who have economies of scale - unless you are suggesting protectionist policies that care not about market forces. What difference will counties make? ie what has stopped the setting up of such industries in those areas you suggest they will suddenly spring up?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,224 Location: Nairobi
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@2012 - LOL... you are joking! Unless each county 'bars' products from other counties... Bidco in Thika is better suited than some guy filling cans with cooking fat in Mandera! EABL in Ruaraka - ditto! KQ - Kwani, it will fly to every county? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/9/2009 Posts: 6,592 Location: Nairobi
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Mpenzi wrote:While some might do well, most will hardly survive in light of competing cheaper products from abroad and current big players who have economies of scale - unless you are suggesting protectionist policies that care not about market forces. @Mpenzi and VVS Counties competing to generate revenues for development and creating jobs for the most dangerous group, the youth will be a major focus from 2013. I can assure you mid-size industries will spring up everywhere and the biggest casualties will be the FMCG big boys. Just look around and see all the things small women groups are manufacturing - from aloe-vera soaps to cooking fat, mini-bakeries, milk saccos, packaged farm produce etc. I can tell you for a fact that things won't be the same. Just tembea kidogo and see how Indians are acquiring land in counties to put up industries.
BBI will solve it :)
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/18/2011 Posts: 12,069 Location: Kianjokoma
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The belief that counties will be small govts has been fuelled by lies by politicians. These counties will be the same as local authorities of today ie councils. Their duties and powers are spelt out in the 4th schedule of the constitution which are similar to council duties in Local Govt Act...these counties will not even be responsible for primary school education! They will do licensing and promotion of trade but that to me is vague and doesnt involve things people r hoping for here. As for construction industry, the gains will be minimal because county hqs will be in 1 town while leaving out development of other towns in the county. We may end up disbanding current 300plus districts thus I dont see how the banking sector will benefit.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/2/2007 Posts: 8,776 Location: Cameroon
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Lolest you have no idea at all. Local govts have peanuts, the LATF notwithstanding. The counties will cöntrol over 150 billion ksh, much more than our annual roads budget. That shall have a MASSIVE IMPACT. We can all attest to the success of the CDF, a measly 25b (2010-11). Now multiply this by 6. There will be lots of cash out there n numerous casual jobs. Did a quick scan of Murang'a, my county-used to get around 700m fm the CDF kitty (2.5%). Multiplying ths by a factor of 6, the funds baloon to over 3B. I rest my case n activate my throat... TULIA.........UFUNZWE!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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The formation of counties is evidently the economic game changer our nation is about actualise. Positive inter-county competition will elevate this economy to greater heights! Better start finding your angles fellow comrades.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/18/2011 Posts: 12,069 Location: Kianjokoma
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Fourth Schedule - Distribution of functions between National and the county governments Part 2—County Governments
Part 2—County Governments
The functions and powers of the county are--
1. Agriculture, including—
(a) crop and animal husbandry;
(b) livestock sale yards;
(c) county abattoirs;
(d) plant and animal disease control; and
(e) fisheries.
2. County health services, including, in particular—
(a) county health facilities and pharmacies;
(b) ambulance services;
(c) promotion of primary health care;
(d) licensing and control of undertakings that sell food to the public;
(e) veterinary services (excluding regulation of the profession);
(f) cemeteries, funeral parlours and crematoria; and
(g) refuse removal, refuse dumps and solid waste disposal.
3. Control of air pollution, noise pollution, other public nuisances and outdoor advertising.
4. Cultural activities, public entertainment and public amenities,including--
(a) betting, casinos and other forms of gambling;
(b) racing;
(c) liquor licensing;
(d) cinemas;
(e) video shows and hiring;
(f) libraries;
(g) museums;
(h) sports and cultural activities and facilities; and
(i) county parks, beaches and recreation facilities.
5. County transport, including--
(a) county roads;
(b) street lighting;
(c) traffic and parking;
(d) public road transport; and
(e) ferries and harbours, excluding the regulation of international and national shipping and matters related thereto.
6. Animal control and welfare, including--
(a) licensing of dogs; and
(b) facilities for the accommodation, care and burial of animals.
7. Trade development and regulation, including--
(a) markets;
(b) trade licences (excluding regulation of professions);
(c) fair trading practices;
(d) local tourism; and
(e) cooperative societies.
8. County planning and development, including—
(a) statistics;
(b) land survey and mapping;
(c) boundaries and fencing;
(d) housing; and
(e) electricity and gas reticulation and energy regulation.
9. Pre-primary education, village polytechnics, homecraft centres and childcare facilities.
10. Implementation of specific national government policies on natural resources and environmental conservation, including--
(a) soil and water conservation; and
(b) forestry.
11. County public works and services, including--
(a) storm water management systems in built-up areas; and
(b) water and sanitation services.
12. Fire fighting services and disaster management.
13. Control of drugs and pornography.
14. Ensuring and coordinating the participation of communities and locations in governance at the local level and assisting communities and locations to develop the administrative capacity for the effective exercise of the functions and powers and participation in governance at the local level.Simonkabz et al, is there something else I am missing? Where?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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@the man of the most laugh. I have stated in another thread that a governments core business is primarily to FACILITATE social & economic activities. That is exactly & as you have rightly listed what counties are out to achieve but this time at a greater scale than current local govts (i.e 10% of national fiscus). I was under the presumption that we all understood that (public) infrastructure development is followed by (private) investment?!? At no certain time was I illusioned that county govas will be business units!!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 12/23/2010 Posts: 1,229
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Under Article 203 (2, County governments are to get not less than 15% of revenue collected by the National Government.
This floor is a bit low. Effectively, the central government can retain upto 85% of what it collects from us...….despite the fact that the county governments are charged with the responsibility of implementing all the thongs on Lolest!’s list.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/2/2007 Posts: 8,776 Location: Cameroon
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@ elewa jamaa. Local govts have been doing all that, with very thin budget. The central govt shall still foot the recurrent n dvt expenditure in totality, only that this time machinani shall be swimming in cash, at a much greater scale than the hailed CDF and the poorly managed LATF. What less than 1b has done for Murang'a, over 3b can do better.... unless im not getting ua point.... TULIA.........UFUNZWE!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 12/23/2010 Posts: 1,229
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Opportunities in counties will open up. There's an ongoing conference (19th-20th August) on investment opportunities in the North Rift regionI hope we see counties tripping over themselves to identify their "competitive advantages" and develop what they do best. Good example is tourism. This country has many hidden gems but most people's idea of a holiday is heading down to the Coast. The North Rift has identified sports tourism as one of the areas for investment. I think its about opening up the counties to the rest of the country AND to the rest of the world.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 12/23/2010 Posts: 1,229
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:Banks, Cement & Energy stocks. Cement companies battling for raw material lands(nairobi star)
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