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Nock a bigger threat or Liberator of Kenya’s Oil Industry?
the deal
#1 Posted : Sunday, May 15, 2011 9:25:06 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Nock a bigger threat or Liberator of Kenya’s Oil Industry?

The National oil company of Kenya otherwise popularly known as NOCK was formed in the 1980’s to help stabilize fuel prices in East Africa’s biggest economy. The company came under heavy scrutiny in the past few weeks following 4 days of fuel shortages which threatened to derail the nation’s fragile economic recovery already under threat from below par rains experienced in the 1Q of 2011.
Many commentators allege that Nock has failed in its mandate of stabilizing fuel pump prices which have spiraled out of control following the unrest and revolutions which have plagued oil producing Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries.

Nock as a Liberator of Kenya’s Crisis plagued Oil Industry

The recent announcement by NOCK in the press if fully implemented can help alleviate some of the problems which plague Kenya’s oil industry

1. Establishment of a floating Jetty-it will help alleviate some of the congestion experienced at the Kipevu oil storage facility (KOSF) in Mombasa-net effect more storage

2. The Kanga Project-under this program Nock aims to establish up to 22 mini fuel station by end of this year that will help them increase their market share from 7 to 10% by next year January. One of the reasons why Nock has failed in its mandate of stabilizing fuel prices is the lack of sufficient retail outlets which enables it to have an impact on the market i.e in case it reduces fuel prices at the pump-net effect Nock becomes a strong competitor and more influential

Nock as a threat to Kenya’s Oil Industry

Should Kenya’s oil sector players be sleepless over Nock’s rise? I think they should and here is why?

1.Buy low Sell Higher-with the establishment of the floating jetty Nock will be able to store more oil at their facilities, this will enable them to buy fuel i.e at cheaper prices and then store them and later release the stock to the market when prices are higher, they can then decide to sell the stock at lower prices, with the increase in the number of outlets they own they can perfectly execute this strategy-net effect with the thin margins in the countries oil sector, other firms will struggle to cope and they may be forced to cut on operations or even close shop.

Entire article here http://contrarianinvesti...eat-or-liberator-of.html
mkonomtupu
#2 Posted : Monday, May 16, 2011 9:22:38 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
@deal once upon a time, there was hue n cry from kenyans about being exploited by matatus, nyayo wisdom proposed a good solution Nyayo bus corporation to stabilize commuter fares and provide efficient transportation, donor countries even donated buses and the nys was called in to service. (NOCK was also part of the same trash but thank God it never flew off the perch)
Long n short as with all nyayo projects it was a catastrophic failure, it really distorted the market and with it came the collapse not of the matatu industry as expected but stagecoach and kenya bus service which had served the city so well for many years.We have never recovered since.

morale of the story; the law of unintended consequences will always bring undesirable outcomes. I trust the free market not a bunch of self-serving politicians.
the deal
#3 Posted : Monday, May 16, 2011 9:36:07 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
well @mkono Nock seem's to be in capable hands...the chairman is one of the founders of Equity Bank and their recent plans or movements suggest that their hell bent on taking more market share from the likes of KK and Total...i dont like the continued active role of the state in the oil industry...i wish they could just diinvest.
mkonomtupu
#4 Posted : Monday, May 16, 2011 10:18:19 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
@deal in oil sector it does not matter the hands one wrong deal can wipe you out. Look at what NOCK did when they got the chance to import oil, they got a phantom ship, it's high risk low margins kind of busines, remember in 2009 KK and Total took real hits on the profits when the price of oil nose-dived and they were left with expensive stocks.
I'm sure you saw the jibe that gulf threw at KK in their press statement yesterday on how they became dominant. It will a recipe for disaster if small players took over the importation and NOCK and the other small retailers took over the retail outlets, it will as much chaos as the matatu industry and that's where we are headed. KK and TOtal will concentrate on the niche aspects supplying kengen and IPPs and the aircraft and lpg business
selah
#5 Posted : Monday, May 16, 2011 10:33:27 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
mkonomtupu wrote:
the law of unintended consequences will always bring undesirable outcomes. I trust the free market not a bunch of self-serving politicians.


I think MOE strategy of using NOCK o stabilise the market was a good plan but they failed in its execution.

Its obvious the market is now compromised due to influx of speculators and brief case traders I think the best way to go abt this sector is liberalise it completely, but NOCK play its part in regulating the sector by sourcing cheaper fuel and selling it cheaply.

I dont think the number of outlets matters if they were to have a single outlet in each town with enough pumps they can service the nation.

I think this public-private partnership in this sector is not working well a rethink on how to make it effective is needed.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
VituVingiSana
#6 Posted : Monday, May 16, 2011 11:23:02 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,221
Location: Nairobi
@selah - What public-private partnership?
NOCK is 100% GoK owned...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
selah
#7 Posted : Monday, May 16, 2011 12:00:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
VituVingiSana wrote:
@selah - What public-private partnership?
NOCK is 100% GoK owned...


I meant KPRL and KPC this arrangement they have with private companies are not working very well.

KPC mandate should be reviewed such that ullage is allocated to companies that have outlets while those who have no outlet government should offer incentives to encourage investment in storage facilities.

'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
youcan'tstopusnow
#8 Posted : Monday, May 16, 2011 1:37:02 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Ati NOCK is in capable hands?Laughing out loudly Joke of the day. I bet Munga doesn't call any shots there! Just like at Equity! Kazi ni kusign announcements na annual reports
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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