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These NSE shares have the X-Factor
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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I was reading the article below: http://www.cnbc.com/id/42974607
In the article, Jim Cramer is quoted saying that just like in Talent Competitions, winning stocks can have the "X-factor" too. Cramer says "There's something that can't be quantified that makes us want to pick this or that stock no matter what and keep paying up for it," He added that this is over and above good numbers and beating earnings estimates, although these are essential. A lot of Tech shares in the U.S. market have certainly enjoyed this e.g. Google, Apple, Amazon & Intel. This got me thinking that some shares on the NSE have indeed exhibited some of this in the past while others are still in this zone. It is worth noting these shares can however lose the X-Factor and stagnate or plunge. For those that have done so in the past, I think a good example is East African Cables. Others that appear to still be enjoying this X-Factor coolness on the NSE include Scangroup, Athi River Mining, & Equity Bank (& CIC although not yet listed is quickly joing this list). What do you guys think and which would be your picks going forward?
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/17/2009 Posts: 194
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True dat @Mwanahisa. But JM's shop seems to have lost some of its swag. It is now trading at a similar forward PE with its lesser peers.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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@Iborian. Many a commentator has counted Equity out only to have the smirk wiped off their faces. In 2011, so far, Equity has reported the highest PBT and PAT plus the fastest growth in profits of the listed banks that have reported.
I suspect that BBK is busy making ammendments to their report to just pip Equity. But they can't keep doing it for ever.
If anything, KCB should the biggest on the profits front but KCB is like a recovering punch drunk heavyweight boxer while Equity is like an ultra fit Middleweight that has been fighting in the Heavyweight division for so long that the real heavyweight contenders forgot just how nimble the "small heavyweight" Equity can be. And BTW, I own both, so I should know!
As a consequence the Equity share price always comes back to a superior PE ratio in comparison to the rest. The market just wants to confirm that Equity will repeat this feat in Q2.
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/18/2009 Posts: 118
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@MH, Looks like none of the value shares guys on this forum talk about are included. I am thinking of such counters like Breweries, Centum, Jubilee, KCB etc. Why?
Also what do you think of the coming new kid kid on the block - Britak, now that James Mwangi is in it?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/23/2008 Posts: 3,017
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mwanahisa wrote:@Iborian. Many a commentator has counted Equity out only to have the smirk wiped off their faces. In 2011, so far, Equity has reported the highest PBT and PAT plus the fastest growth in profits of the listed banks that have reported.
I suspect that BBK is busy making ammendments to their report to just pip Equity. But they can't keep doing it for ever.
If anything, KCB should the biggest on the profits front but KCB is like a recovering punch drunk heavyweight boxer while Equity is like an ultra fit Middleweight that has been fighting in the Heavyweight division for so long that the real heavyweight contenders forgot just how nimble the "small heavyweight" Equity can be. And BTW, I own both, so I should know! As a consequence the Equity share price always comes back to a superior PE ratio in comparison to the rest. The market just wants to confirm that Equity will repeat this feat in Q2. What are the basis for your conclusions for these two. Reminds me of lie repeated over and over till people start believing it as true. KCB and equity are almost identical in size (consider results, staff numbers and branch networks), however KCB has more assets due to the time it has been around to accumulate it. Equity is a good bank, but KCB is a steady and proving to be better as time goes by. "The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:What are the basis for your conclusions for these two. Reminds me of lie repeated over and over till people start believing it as true. KCB and equity are almost identical in size (consider results, staff numbers and branch networks), however KCB has more assets due to the time it has been around to accumulate it.
Equity is a good bank, but KCB is a steady and proving to be better as time goes by.
Indeed KCB is improving but Equity still beats it on most metrics other than total assets and capitalization. I like KCB for stability and I keep hoping that it will indeed step up to where it should be. But Equity just keeps on getting ahead. Having said that I have done very well by buying into KCB starting with the rights last year. This was for the reason that it was undervalued by the market for a long time. If we go by the performance trajectory of the two banks in the last 5 years and extrapolate future performance on the basis of the most recent presentations from the two respective CEOs, I would bet on Equity still being ahead of KCB in 5 years time. I stopped adding to my KCB position at about Kshs 23 but now that the market is valuing both KCB and Equity at the Kshs 25 - 26 level, I am now adding on to Equity. Note, this is not however by selling KCB. I may consider selling KCB depending on Q2 numbers and the share price at that point in time.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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Centum; HFCK Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/17/2009 Posts: 194
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Mainat wrote:Centum; HFCK Kwa nini? HF lost its swag way back after Trans Century tried and failed in their bid to buy off the CDC shares. The price shot up like it had a torpedo up its backside from about 10 to 70 if I remember right. No way can it get back on the fast lane. Not on the current evidence. It needs to think a lot BIGGER. May be if the Chinese buy into it....
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@mwanahisa. My thoughts exactly bout equity and kcb, id me more comfortable to buy equity now at 25.00 than kcb at 25.00. I plan to buy into both at the right price. Kcb id be comfortable with 23-24, if it will ever come back. The other is co-op which at 17.50-16.60, id be happy to hold for a while. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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Interestingly no one has commented on ARM or on Scangroup. All these shares trade at a premium over most other shares on the NSE when compared on the basis of PEs, profit growth, DPS.
Note that I was trying to bring out those qualities in a share that seem to command a certain "charisma" or some other enigmatic quality that keeps investors focused on them to the exclusion of other shares with somewhat similar qualities.
For a long time KCB certainly didn't fit this bill but that seems to be changing somewhat. As @Aguytrying has noted, KCB has never really filled me with excitement. I buy it but not at a premium unlike say ARM where I would willingly pay 155 again which is a PE of 18 or so and with a dividend of almost nothing. I have also bought Equity in the past at historical PEs of over 20 and made very good returns. I would not dare do on KCB, at least not yet!
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/31/2007 Posts: 304
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Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:mwanahisa wrote:@Iborian. Many a commentator has counted Equity out only to have the smirk wiped off their faces. In 2011, so far, Equity has reported the highest PBT and PAT plus the fastest growth in profits of the listed banks that have reported.
I suspect that BBK is busy making ammendments to their report to just pip Equity. But they can't keep doing it for ever.
If anything, KCB should the biggest on the profits front but KCB is like a recovering punch drunk heavyweight boxer while Equity is like an ultra fit Middleweight that has been fighting in the Heavyweight division for so long that the real heavyweight contenders forgot just how nimble the "small heavyweight" Equity can be. And BTW, I own both, so I should know! As a consequence the Equity share price always comes back to a superior PE ratio in comparison to the rest. The market just wants to confirm that Equity will repeat this feat in Q2. What are the basis for your conclusions for these two. Reminds me of lie repeated over and over till people start believing it as true. KCB and equity are almost identical in size (consider results, staff numbers and branch networks), however KCB has more assets due to the time it has been around to accumulate it. Equity is a good bank, but KCB is a steady and proving to be better as time goes by. People have always hoped that KCB can perform better than Equity and other banks because of its asset size.I have always wondered what these assets are that give the bank such pitiful returns year in year out.Sometimes I think what they indicate as assets are actually non performing loans/investments which they are afraid to write off lest they get a backlash and given its history as a KANU/Moi's bank this cannot be farfetched....Nevertheless in investments its always better to buy into fact rather than hope hence I will always pick Equity before KCB until such a point when the latter is able to prove itself in hard numbers...the Qtr 1 2011 results were not really encouraging...
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Rank: Member Joined: 12/31/2008 Posts: 90
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Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:Equity is a good bank, but KCB is a steady and proving to be better as time goes by.
KCB a better bank than Equity? Eish, what have you been smoking one Obi Kanobi?
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/17/2009 Posts: 194
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I did not mean to imply that Equity is slacking off. In simple English...the premium on Equity shares is not there at the moment. Methinks that could be a signal to buy. moneydust wrote:People have always hoped that KCB can perform better than Equity and other banks because of its asset size.I have always wondered what these assets are that give the bank such pitiful returns year in year out.Sometimes I think what they indicate as assets are actually non performing loans/investments which they are afraid to write off lest they get a backlash and given its history as a KANU/Moi's bank this cannot be farfetched....Nevertheless in investments its always better to buy into fact rather than hope hence I will always pick Equity before KCB until such a point when the latter is able to prove itself in hard numbers...the Qtr 1 2011 results were not really encouraging...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@mwanahisa. there's something about scangroup and ARM, that charisma you talk about. They are shares with bright futures that investors know unless something goes horribly wrong they;ll make gains. A share like scan is even hard to comprehend, I've said before it has 'long legs" when it goes down, you can always bet your lucky dollar it will bounce back. Wish id, trusted it and speculated at the 50.00 last month. As for ARM, the increase in capacity soon expected to make it the largest producer could be a factor, that and it has made folks super gains in the past. I dont quite get them.....but i like'em The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/18/2009 Posts: 118
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Scangroup is one that certainly lives up to that X-factor billing. It is way beyond the level that most valuation models would have it at.
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/21/2010 Posts: 514 Location: Nairobi
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One should actually remember that banks are intermediaries between Savers & Borrowers & the one that does this better is the best. Remember that banks being highly leveraged, the best bank is one that knows how to invest its funds with better returns and minimizes its risk exposure. Going by my reasons Equity is better than KCB. Wanted to find out how long Helios sticks in its investment & exits on what basis i.e. Rate of return expected or period coz having 3 board seats in Equity & with their,massive investment therein when they exit IMHO there will be a substantial erosion. 'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/24/2010 Posts: 846 Location: KENYA
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Equity at 25 today...all those singing EQUITY better start buying 
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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The Merchant wrote:Equity at 25 today...all those singing EQUITY better start buying  True, True my orders are on the queue!
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/17/2009 Posts: 194
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Renegade wrote:@MH, Looks like none of the value shares guys on this forum talk about are included. I am thinking of such counters like Breweries, Centum, Jubilee, KCB etc. Why?
Also what do you think of the coming new kid kid on the block - Britak, now that James Mwangi is in it? Of the lot above, the only one that deserves mention is EABL. Why? It trades at zillions of multiples to its NAV and has one of the highest PE ratio in the mkt. It has a reasonable although not too appetising a yield. And the clincher - tepid growth in the last few years and with Mututho, sales are going nowhere. Yet we keep buying. Kwa nini? Let's all have a drink.
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