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Safaricom FY 2011 Results due on 18th May
Impunity
#1 Posted : Tuesday, May 10, 2011 10:32:55 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,330
Location: Masada
How will the market react?
Do we expect anything near 20 Birrion profit?
Being the market leader,the market is likely to follow in the footstep of this (saf)con...
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.

Sober
#2 Posted : Tuesday, May 10, 2011 10:55:41 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
The speculators are out. the counter is touching the high of 4.00 with about 4 more trading days to the day of material announcement, i can't wait to see how the results look like considering the price wars.
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
Cde Monomotapa
#3 Posted : Wednesday, May 11, 2011 5:01:04 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
IMHO there will be gnashing of teeth and loss of value. Nevertheless, I could be made to believe in miracles come the 18th. P.S: PLEASE AMEND HEAD LINE OF THREAD.
Cde Monomotapa
#4 Posted : Wednesday, May 11, 2011 7:25:14 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Cheers (for amendment)
the deal
#5 Posted : Wednesday, May 11, 2011 8:14:35 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
18 May that's early...its Bullish signal right there.
mlennyma
#6 Posted : Wednesday, May 11, 2011 8:24:26 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,191
Location: nairobi
Sold half left with half
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
XSK
#7 Posted : Wednesday, May 11, 2011 9:04:01 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 12/8/2009
Posts: 975
Location: Nairobi
I am waiting for this like a nothing else! Being the market leader means whatever direction in terms of performance safcom takes will give a general indication of the industry. Lakini pia naogopa they might have been fatally injured by the price wars.
You will know that you have arrived when money and time are not mutually exclusive "events" in you life!
mlennyma
#8 Posted : Wednesday, May 11, 2011 9:36:56 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,191
Location: nairobi
Why was there no profit warning?
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
2012
#9 Posted : Wednesday, May 11, 2011 9:44:39 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
Why was there no profit warning?


Could they have pulled a rabbit out of the hat?

BBI will solve it
:)
the deal
#10 Posted : Wednesday, May 11, 2011 9:48:30 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Find out why Safcom will survive Airtels onslaught...coming up here http://contrarianinvestingkenya.blogspot.com later during the day.
muganda
#11 Posted : Wednesday, May 11, 2011 10:43:50 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,906
Fresh on today's news, Orange announces 'sayonara' to 400 staff...
COTU says they will issue a strike notice against retrenchment...
Orange reduces commissions to dealers by 20%; Mobicom Lo!
Orange grows subscribers but revenue dips...

Bitange Ndemo says 'I told you so' on price war...


Remarkable growth of MPESA on different chart
yr---subscribers
2007-----52k
2008-----2.3m
2009-----6.4m
2010-----9.5m
2011-----13.5m


Safaricom still holds market share 75.9% ('09 78%) Airtel about 13.5% ('09 17%)
Outcome of price cuts: happy consumers on one hand and 'job losses, dent investor confidence and slow down investments in telecoms sector'
Does this explain why Airtel is behind schedule on 3G?

http://www.businessdailyafrica....8/-/pks2j9z/-/index.html
VituVingiSana
#12 Posted : Wednesday, May 11, 2011 10:57:41 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,221
Location: Nairobi
As a consumer... pole for the job losses but the economy has benefited from cheaper calls too!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Jamani
#13 Posted : Wednesday, May 11, 2011 11:21:34 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
VituVingiSana wrote:
As a consumer... pole for the job losses but the economy has benefited from cheaper calls too!


VVS are you serious to state that the economy benefited, when there are job loses and the government has also lost income(taxes) and prices are escalating to meet the challenge! get serious kidogo dont only look at the ability to have cheap calls
mycool
#14 Posted : Wednesday, May 11, 2011 11:40:59 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/30/2007
Posts: 92
Na hii simu inaitwa IDEOS ilileta pesa ngapi? It was 'oversold'!
XSK
#15 Posted : Wednesday, May 11, 2011 11:43:49 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 12/8/2009
Posts: 975
Location: Nairobi
Jamani i think this boils down to what will benefit the highest number of kenyans or does it? me thinks that the lower prices will enable more kenyans to communicate at the expense of a few thousand kenyans who may need to change their lifestyle coz of potential loss of income. The mentioned few kenyans are those that are employed by the operators directly or indirectly. The government has many other possible sources of cash. Therefore the loss of one revenue stream should not mean much.

Jamani wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
As a consumer... pole for the job losses but the economy has benefited from cheaper calls too!


VVS are you serious to state that the economy benefited, when there are job loses and the government has also lost income(taxes) and prices are escalating to meet the challenge! get serious kidogo dont only look at the ability to have cheap calls

You will know that you have arrived when money and time are not mutually exclusive "events" in you life!
the deal
#16 Posted : Wednesday, May 11, 2011 11:47:02 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Blog post is done on Why Safcom will survive the Price wars...its here http://contrarianinvestingkenya.blogpost.com you can copy n paste it here...those are my two cents.
mwanahisa
#17 Posted : Wednesday, May 11, 2011 11:49:15 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
I am afraid that the future for investment in telecoms in this country for the moment appears rather bleak. Safaricom might just manage to weather the storm in their 2010-11 financials on account of the 1st half of the year. The momentum since then must have surely slowed.

However, it is a lot worse for the others who do not have other services to fallback on viz Data, MPESA etc. Take Orange as an example. I have a 3G+ Modem which used to be my default Internet service on account of cost. The bloody thing has however slowed to such a crawl that I am now about to fully impair my 4GB bundle such is the headache I get when I try to use it. That's likely to be the last sale they will see from me unless there is an earthshaking change.

I have now purchased a 20GB bundle from SCOM for 9,999 and the cost per MB now comes to Kshs 0.50 which is less than my previous Orange bundles. It also comes with no hassles regarding speed and user experience.
gathinga
#18 Posted : Wednesday, May 11, 2011 12:03:45 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/30/2006
Posts: 635
the deal wrote:
Blog post is done on Why Safcom will survive the Price wars...its here http://contrarianinvestingkenya.blogpost.com you can copy n paste it here...those are my two cents.



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The following error was encountered while trying to retrieve the URL: http://contrarianinvestingkenya.blogpost.com/

Connection to 127.0.0.1 failed.

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The remote host or network may be down. Please try the request again.

please check your blog. cant access since yesterday
VituVingiSana
#19 Posted : Wednesday, May 11, 2011 12:07:32 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,221
Location: Nairobi
XSK wrote:
Jamani i think this boils down to what will benefit the highest number of kenyans or does it? me thinks that the lower prices will enable more kenyans to communicate at the expense of a few thousand kenyans who may need to change their lifestyle coz of potential loss of income. The mentioned few kenyans are those that are employed by the operators directly or indirectly. The government has many other possible sources of cash. Therefore the loss of one revenue stream should not mean much.

Jamani wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
As a consumer... pole for the job losses but the economy has benefited from cheaper calls too!


VVS are you serious to state that the economy benefited, when there are job loses and the government has also lost income(taxes) and prices are escalating to meet the challenge! get serious kidogo dont only look at the ability to have cheap calls


Absolutely! Cheaper fuel will benefit more Kenyans overall & so cheaper phone calls will benefit more Kenyans. The 'increased' profits simply means Vodaphone, Airtel or Orange France will benefit more than Kenyans!

Or perhaps you think we should get rid of cars & go to mkokotenis so that we do not need to import fuel & provide many more jobs for Kenyans?

Ahhh! Let's get rid of 'cheap' computers so more people can be hired as secretaries using typewriters!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
2012
#20 Posted : Wednesday, May 11, 2011 12:27:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
They might just pull it off. 1H 2011 profits were up 14% to 10.44B and that was to November 2010. I expect them to have made some good cash in December...

As for Telkom, you need to change your strategy. Is Yu still operational in this market?

BBI will solve it
:)
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