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CFC Insurance Holdings - Share Price to tumble!
mwanahisa
#1 Posted : Tuesday, April 26, 2011 10:12:36 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
The listing price was set at a price of 6.15. However overzealous punters pushed the price to a day's high of 17 with a closing average price 14.80.

This is for a company with a trailing EPS of just 54 cents. Even though it has a relatively high NBV of 9.59, I think it is a mistake to buy at anything above it's book value until management prove they can be as profitable as their listed peers in the insurance sub-sector.
2012
#2 Posted : Tuesday, April 26, 2011 10:20:24 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
mwanahisa wrote:
The listing price was set at a price of 6.15. However overzealous punters pushed the price to a day's high of 17 with a closing average price 14.80.

This is for a company with a trailing EPS of just 54 cents. Even though it has a relatively high NBV of 9.59, I think it is a mistake to buy at anything above it's book value until management prove they can be as profitable as their listed peers in the insurance sub-sector.



Couldn't agree with you more. Why would anyone buy @17/- unless the intention is to purely play the market?

BBI will solve it
:)
mwanahisa
#3 Posted : Tuesday, April 26, 2011 10:34:51 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Of course they have a small free float, so it is possible for the main shareholders to keep it artifically high but on the current fundamentals, it simply does not make sense.
guru267
#4 Posted : Tuesday, April 26, 2011 11:14:34 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
mwanahisa wrote:
The listing price was set at a price of 6.15. However overzealous punters pushed the price to a day's high of 17 with a closing average price 14.80.

This is for a company with a trailing EPS of just 54 cents. Even though it has a relatively high NBV of 9.59, I think it is a mistake to buy at anything above it's book value until management prove they can be as profitable as their listed peers in the insurance sub-sector.

I thought the EPS of .54 was the half year profit.
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Iborian
#5 Posted : Tuesday, April 26, 2011 11:15:01 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/17/2009
Posts: 194
Hii share iko na wenyewe. Don't expect them to let the share price fall so that the likes of you can get in.
mwanahisa
#6 Posted : Tuesday, April 26, 2011 11:21:29 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
guru267 wrote:
mwanahisa wrote:
The listing price was set at a price of 6.15. However overzealous punters pushed the price to a day's high of 17 with a closing average price 14.80.

This is for a company with a trailing EPS of just 54 cents. Even though it has a relatively high NBV of 9.59, I think it is a mistake to buy at anything above it's book value until management prove they can be as profitable as their listed peers in the insurance sub-sector.

I thought the EPS of .54 was the half year profit.


No. This is for the full year as reported. Results published in the Daily Nation on 21st March 2011. Full Year profits were Kshs 260,014,000. However, the profits attributable to owners of the parent were only Kshs 225,741,000.
Marthegorgeous
#7 Posted : Tuesday, April 26, 2011 11:22:06 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/16/2009
Posts: 34
Location: NAIROBI
Assuming an annualized EPS of 1.08,therefore the current PE is 13.7 which is well above the average PE for the Insurance sector.
mwanahisa
#8 Posted : Tuesday, April 26, 2011 11:29:06 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
As indicated in my post no. 6 above, EPS was actually 0.54 hence PE @15 is 27.78. How does that strike you?

Marthegorgeous wrote:
Assuming an annualized EPS of 1.08,therefore the current PE is 13.7 which is well above the average PE for the Insurance sector.

the deal
#9 Posted : Tuesday, April 26, 2011 11:36:03 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
The results will be out this week...PE alone doesnt do it anymore...look at a momentum stock like SCAN.
Iborian
#10 Posted : Tuesday, April 26, 2011 11:39:34 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/17/2009
Posts: 194
Tell him @the deal. Mwanahisa will still be waiting for the price to fall when it hits 20. Meanwhile the deal will have made his kill.

the deal wrote:
The results will be out this week...PE alone doesnt do it anymore...look at a momentum stock like SCAN.

mwanahisa
#11 Posted : Tuesday, April 26, 2011 11:44:40 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
I am afraid to disillusion you. The only guys who will make money on this counter are those who bought into CFC Stanbic Holdings before the demerger. Those ones buying at 15 will get burnt.

Iborian wrote:
Tell him @the deal. Mwanahisa will still be waiting for the price to fall when it hits 20. Meanwhile the deal will have made his kill.

the deal wrote:
The results will be out this week...PE alone doesnt do it anymore...look at a momentum stock like SCAN.


Marthegorgeous
#12 Posted : Tuesday, April 26, 2011 12:14:47 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/16/2009
Posts: 34
Location: NAIROBI
@ deal are u talking of 2011 Quarter 1 Results or 2010 full year results?
the deal
#13 Posted : Tuesday, April 26, 2011 12:22:51 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Marthegorgeous wrote:
@ deal are u talking of 2011 Quarter 1 Results or 2010 full year results?

No Full Year results..for CFCIH...insurance have a deadline to report before 30/04.
mwanahisa
#14 Posted : Tuesday, April 26, 2011 12:27:12 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
@the deal, I thought you were much more current than this. FULL YEAR results were released and published in the Daily Nation on 21st March 2011. CFC Stanbic Holdings took out 6 whole pages to report on the results of the holdings company as well as all their subsidiaries. So, do not expect anything more than the Kshs 0.54 EPS already reported until 2011 H1.

the deal wrote:
Marthegorgeous wrote:
@ deal are u talking of 2011 Quarter 1 Results or 2010 full year results?

No Full Year results..for CFCIH...insurance have a deadline to report before 30/04.

Marthegorgeous
#15 Posted : Tuesday, April 26, 2011 1:28:41 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/16/2009
Posts: 34
Location: NAIROBI
@ Mwanahisa and Deal who is correct
mwanahisa
#16 Posted : Tuesday, April 26, 2011 1:56:26 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Marthegorgeous wrote:
@ Mwanahisa and Deal who is correct


Why don't YOU decide?
the deal
#17 Posted : Tuesday, April 26, 2011 2:30:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
mwanahisa wrote:
Marthegorgeous wrote:
@ Mwanahisa and Deal who is correct


Why don't YOU decide?

Yours truly @mukiha will tell u 0.54 EPS was H1...what i saw in Nation was results for Heritage....cfc life...cfc bank..cfc financial services...cfc asset managers and cfc stanbic holdings not cfc insurance holdings.
guru267
#18 Posted : Tuesday, April 26, 2011 2:36:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
mwanahisa wrote:
Marthegorgeous wrote:
@ Mwanahisa and Deal who is correct


Why don't YOU decide?

Yours truly @mukiha will tell u 0.54 EPS was H1...what i saw in Nation was results for Heritage....cfc life...cfc bank..cfc financial services...cfc asset managers and cfc stanbic holdings not cfc insurance holdings.

Thanx.. That makes the share worth looking at..
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mwanahisa
#19 Posted : Tuesday, April 26, 2011 2:43:21 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
As I type this, I am looking at the very last page of the Advertiser's Announcement of the said date. Page F.

Page A has the results of CFC Stanbic Bank;
Page B - Stanbic Investment Management Sevices; &
CFC Stanbic Financial Services;
Page C - CFC Stanbic Holdings;
Page D - CFC Life;
Page E - The Heritage Insurance Company; & finally
Page F - CFC Insurance Holdings.

the deal wrote:
mwanahisa wrote:
Marthegorgeous wrote:
@ Mwanahisa and Deal who is correct


Why don't YOU decide?

Yours truly @mukiha will tell u 0.54 EPS was H1...what i saw in Nation was results for Heritage....cfc life...cfc bank..cfc financial services...cfc asset managers and cfc stanbic holdings not cfc insurance holdings.

the deal
#20 Posted : Tuesday, April 26, 2011 3:02:08 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
quoting @mukiha who was reading the info memo send to Cfc shareholders BTW: It is coming to the market at an introductory price of sh6.157

Total shares listing: 515m

Total shareholders: 3,712 [yours truly included]

NAV: 9.4 [30th June 09]

EPS: 0.54 [6mo to 30th June]

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