If CBK continues to tighten up and cash strap these banks as they are doing right now & continue increasing interest rates, then i don't see the same growth or near the same growth in the banking sector this year as it was last year. Some of these banks made exponential growth from one-off items especially bond trading a good example being DTB.
www.businessdailyafrica....8/-/t3mayvz/-/index.html

Banks will just pass the rise to the consumer and at the moment demand for loanz is inelastic..

erifloss, are you predicting flat Q1 results?

Basically the profit is single digit but certainly and improvement from the last based on its on going price action ( factorin in if u wanna call it that way)

If you are talking about KCB can we place a wazua sanctioned OFFICIAL BET on it

Basically for the first two months banks might have made a kill but in March i'm sure they've had problems(loan repayment rates etc). The real effect will be felt in Q2, @guru, the western world are calling it the 'African revolution or rennaissance' and that's why the big banks are rushing in in drones even got some info that BB Plc have actually sent 2 of their directors to live in Kenya coz they don't want to miss this. with all this said, we live in a globalized society and there will always be a knockdown effect. Kindly look at the performance of most Western banks and you'll realise that the writings are on the wall (JM sold his shares stating that he was following statutory regulations? BBK reducing employee costs? KCB going BBK's route? Big banks going after the SME market segment?)

M.O.O was very clear during the press release of Q3 FY2010 results that they intend to be active as a lender in the inter-bank mkt due to excess yet to be deployed deposits (loans) KCB has. Now, at the time inter-bank rates were btwn 1-1.5% as of the 15th of April inter-bank rate was 5.4%. Presuming KCB did do what they said as above then it's mo money, mo money!!

Are banks not already doing this? On this front, I think Equity's foray into Rwanda is great as its model will fit into that market

@erifloss I am very bullish on the growth trajectory of kenyan banks and particularly KCB....

This bank is on a 3 year mission to drive the cost to income ratio down from 65% to the industry average of 53% which effectively rising the profits from the current 9.8 billion to a modest 15 billion in 2013.
This can happen no matter the environment because it is a ratio that management has set out to correct.

They also set to make return on assets at the industry average level and if thet did that one profits would be blown away..

All this will be observed in KCB's q1 results relative to those of the other banks..
I cant wait

erifloss quantify good and very good. Good = 30%? Very good = 50% and above?