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Jubilee Holdings results FY2010 profit jumps 84 pct
young
#61 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 11:15:12 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,067
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
young wrote:

From the trend of events JUB price may not rise sharply as expected even though the result is very good because the return to shareholders especially the bonus issue is below expectation.

WE all know what happened to KCB, Pan Afric, KK and others that returned good results without sustainable rise in price.

For those that have not joined the bus,do not give up watch out you may have a chance to join in a a couple of weeks circa 190 bob.

I would say expect JUB at 200+ after a good Q1 2011 result and when the bulls fully return.



JUB price will go down because the mood of the market for now does not support consistent bull run irrespective of good results.
There will be a chance for new entrants below
200 bob.
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
the deal
#62 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 2:50:01 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@Mzee Young i see buy bids at 210...below 200 you might have to wait for a little longer maybe 2012...lol
Aguytrying
#63 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 7:56:15 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Before the general population realises what msimon says (get it, simon says), ill be so out. i wanted 250, but ill take something lower....or wait for the bonus.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
youcan'tstopusnow
#64 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 8:11:33 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Aguytrying wrote:
Before the general population realises what msimon says (get it, simon says), ill be so out. i wanted 250, but ill take something lower....or wait for the bonus.

Laughing out loudly The only thing that is left is for Cde to come in and cap it off with his "The NSE is not a Fish Market" quoteLaughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Muthawamunene particularly loves it
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
mwanahisa
#65 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 8:23:20 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Aguytrying wrote:
Before the general population realises what msimon says (get it, simon says), ill be so out. i wanted 250, but ill take something lower....or wait for the bonus.



@Aguytrying. You will probably have noticed that Jubilee is one of my core positions which I would not offload lightly. This is unlike many of the other stocks that I speculate on. I would probably have been tempted to sell at 250. Such a big jump would have led to an avalanche of sell orders. But for sure, I would have bought back.

At 220, I was not sure that I was getting value, even though I have lots of shares that I recently bought at between 175-190. I was afraid that I just might sell and then not be able to reclaim my shares at a lower price. Of course in hindsight I guess I should have supplied the bidders at 220-225.

However, I made a deliberate decision to stay in. If you (and others) are ready to sell, I will be one of the takers, have no fear. I have made quite a bit of cash from my recent speculative activities and I need a safe home for my loot and hence I will buy as it falls. The bigger the fall, all the merrier for me. *NB* I am looking at the really long term on this. In the long run I know we will all be dead, but.......
guru267
#66 Posted : Saturday, April 23, 2011 11:52:46 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
msimon wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
I had projected atleast to see 220 and it has passed my litmus test.iam convinced the nse is among the top investment platforms.imagine from 175 to 220?almost all stocks will tripple for the five years after 2012 if we dont butcher each other.


I wont allow myself to be taken up in this euphoria. After close examination of the results, Jubilee is overvalued and the only excitement will come in form of the bonus issue. Look closely at the cashflow from operations, these guys generated no free cashflow last year. The positive cashflow from operating activities is enhanced by the DAC's and the changes in insurance contract liabilities and reserves.(these are negatives ultimately). Insurers profit in a 3 pronged way.
1. Through underwriting margins.
2. Through Investment Income
3. Appreciation of the value of the assets.

Typically, you want an insurer whose management focuses on all the three in that order. Now for Jubilee, indeed they have a great management team, but the euphoria surrounding the results is baseless as its driven by the 3rd which is erratic and prone to wild swings. Now had the NSE been up 10-12% last year, then jubilee would have relied on the bonus bonanza for the stock to be up 25%. Because, if you ignore the changes in portfolio market at market, jubilee would be in a loss position of -2,224,502,000. Yes, thats true. But the unrealized gains in the investment portfolio market at market show a total of 3,782,400,000. Note that in the previous -2,224,502,000, i had included share of results of associates after income tax, meaning that if i were to ignore it too, the loss position would be enormous. At current prices, investors are bidding it at 2.2x book. This makes it extremely overvalued, especially when you weigh it against returns of other stocks in similar segments. Now if your playing it for the bonus bonanza, well and good. But if your allocating capital, now wouldn't be the time to touch this honey.

The ignorance about insurance companies operation is bigger than I thought.. Sad
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Gordon Gekko
#67 Posted : Saturday, May 14, 2011 5:03:38 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
Just received my Notice of JHL AGM. One of the item is a resolution to replace PricewaterhouseCoopers with KPMG as auditors. Is this routine or there is something amiss/afoot?
guru267
#68 Posted : Sunday, May 15, 2011 4:50:13 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Gordon Gekko wrote:
Just received my Notice of JHL AGM. One of the item is a resolution to replace PricewaterhouseCoopers with KPMG as auditors. Is this routine or there is something amiss/afoot?

routine...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
VituVingiSana
#69 Posted : Monday, May 16, 2011 4:28:07 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,259
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
Gordon Gekko wrote:
Just received my Notice of JHL AGM. One of the item is a resolution to replace PricewaterhouseCoopers with KPMG as auditors. Is this routine or there is something amiss/afoot?

routine...
Good governance dictates changing auditors every 3 years... Jubilee has done that for many, many years. A new auditor may find something the prior one overlooked. Or may have new ideas, etc...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Gordon Gekko
#70 Posted : Monday, May 16, 2011 6:55:42 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
Funny, today's Business Daily,

Read reason 2.....

http://www.businessdaily.../-/1237af1z/-/index.html
the deal
#71 Posted : Monday, May 16, 2011 7:36:46 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
[quote=Gordon Gekko]Funny, today's Business Daily,

Read reason 2.....

http://www.businessdaily...-/1237af1z/-/index.html[/quote]
@GG i believe you are a very good accountant...the numbers just dont quiet add up...there is something amis with their accounting policies...if i use the same evaluation methods i used on Britak then JUB is a SELL...wait for my Blog post on this...
The Merchant
#72 Posted : Monday, May 16, 2011 4:45:16 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
@the deal & @guru. We are waiting to read your diffrent views on Jubilee. This should be interesting.
PKoli
#73 Posted : Monday, May 16, 2011 6:03:05 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
@the deal, please post your opinion on JBL as soon you can.
Cde Monomotapa
#74 Posted : Monday, May 16, 2011 6:49:05 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Similar changes happened at KCB's AGM i.e Ernst & Young to KPMG.
invest0r
#75 Posted : Monday, May 16, 2011 8:34:03 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/15/2010
Posts: 162
The Merchant wrote:
@the deal & @guru. We are waiting to read your diffrent views on Jubilee. This should be interesting.

You also need to listen to @msimon. He has a very good understanding of insurance matters
QW25071985
#76 Posted : Monday, May 16, 2011 8:36:37 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/25/2011
Posts: 946
invest0r wrote:
The Merchant wrote:
@the deal & @guru. We are waiting to read your diffrent views on Jubilee. This should be interesting.

You also need to listen to @msimon. He has a very good understanding of insurance matters


@ guru will be back after 50 years !!!!!!!!!!Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly loest Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly loest Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly loest Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly loest Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly loest Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly loest
VituVingiSana
#77 Posted : Monday, May 16, 2011 8:49:27 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,259
Location: Nairobi
#2 http://www.businessdaily...-/1237af1z/-/index.html does NOT apply. Jubilee has been changing auditors every 3 years for years [it is not a new policy]
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#78 Posted : Monday, May 16, 2011 8:58:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
I looked at the numbers over and over and in the process i realised why i'm a JUB shareholder...i'm a JUB shareholder not bcoz of JUB insurance but its investment arm...without Income from Investment JUB will be loss making because its Insurance arm is or has been struggling so mSimon was right in that regard...no1 insurer in EA...i think its a marketing gimmick.
The Merchant
#79 Posted : Monday, May 16, 2011 10:35:39 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
Oh my. Im looking at Jubilee numbers and I see what msimon means. Jubilee definitely passes tests 2 & 3 but fails on the first one which @msimon clims is the most crucial. I however do know that even Berkshire Harthaway makes underwriting losses sometimes yet it has recorded tremendous growth over the years. Isnt the fact that Jubilee is recording massive growth without necessarily having a huge underwriting margin more reason for us to buy the stock? Just wondering.

Funny thing is that no one seems to dispute that Jubilee has good management. The issue here seems to be that few believe the growth exhibited last year can be sustained.

@thedeal...How does your Britak compare, they are extremely exposed to Equity aren't they? Insurance as a business is tough (hence the smartest guys in the world working there, actuaries) but in Kenya its more than tough because it remains such a vague concept for most Kenyans. The only thing an insurance company can do to keep shareholders happy is manage costs and make aim for supernormal returns from investment. On this basis, I think Jubilee has done very well. Is it sustainable? I do not know, @guru help here....
The Merchant
#80 Posted : Monday, May 16, 2011 10:49:02 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
the deal wrote:
I looked at the numbers over and over and in the process i realised why i'm a JUB shareholder...i'm a JUB shareholder not bcoz of JUB insurance but its investment arm...without Income from Investment JUB will be loss making because its Insurance arm is or has been struggling so mSimon was right in that regard...no1 insurer in EA...i think its a marketing gimmick.

Pray Pray
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