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Jubilee simply did a BBK on shareholders
Sure
#1 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 10:50:13 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/9/2010
Posts: 546
Location: Garissa
Jubilee sold over 1.7 billion of quoted company shares because they fear the political climate may start pouring in torrents. They did not intend to give the cash to shareholders cauze they intend to reinvent the same in shares that will come down clashing due to the political upheavals likely to be seen this yr and next year. This is a no brainer. Today, the share has no takers. Bids are at 100. Let the share deflate. At least, BBK was descent enough to give a fat dividend from sale proceeds.
Wisdom to detect when share prices hit rock bottom.
When interest on bonds keep going up, you know the bear run is on high street. When interest on bonds start leveling, the bear has met the bull and they have hit rock bottom. When the interest rates on bonds start coming down, the bull has overpowered the bear and you better be riding the bull.
The Merchant
#2 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 11:27:55 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
Well, wanting to reinvest in a subdued market is not really a bad idea. This fact alone should be the reason to buy!
selah
#3 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 11:39:21 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
What wrong with this market gaining By 20% and then dropping by 21% within a span of two days.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
The Merchant
#4 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 12:32:17 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
selah wrote:
What wrong with this market gaining By 20% and then dropping by 21% within a span of two days.

d'oh! d'oh! This is not a market to watch. You either buy and come back next year or stay away all together. Tough times....Shame on you
mwanahisa
#5 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 12:46:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Sure, kindly get your facts right. To begin with Jubilee's bids are not at 100. It can't go down by more than 10% from yesterday's price. And I am a bidder today, so I should know.

Secondly, Jubilee is not just an insurance company. It is a holdings group which has extensive investments over and above its insurance business. I daresay, insurance is not the most critical business within the holdings company even though it is the most talked about.

As an investments holding company, JHL buys and sells shares (amongst other investments e.g. Govt bonds) in the normal course of business. So they sold 1.7 billion shares last year. Big deal! You should also mention that they bought approx 1.2 billion worth of shares. I am actually happy that they sold more than they bought and they have got quite a hefty amount in Govt paper. That means they are well positioned to dip into the market at lower prices.

And you should not be comparing Jubilee with BBK. They are in different lines of business.

Sure wrote:
Jubilee sold over 1.7 billion of quoted company shares because they fear the political climate may start pouring in torrents. They did not intend to give the cash to shareholders cauze they intend to reinvent the same in shares that will come down clashing due to the political upheavals likely to be seen this yr and next year. This is a no brainer. Today, the share has no takers. Bids are at 100. Let the share deflate. At least, BBK was descent enough to give a fat dividend from sale proceeds.

miser
#6 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 12:48:59 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/7/2008
Posts: 124
Shhh...woi...eehh..haaa vindole vimeungua!In short 2 days have made a loss of 50k on this share.The share lose by 40 bob when the so called good results were out but today its down by 20 bob!What the #@$! is this?Hey who else got burnt?Let us commiserate...
mwanahisa
#7 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 1:00:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Pole sana! But I think there were enough admonitions on Wazua not to chase the counter. As a matter of practice, you should not do this on any results announcement unless you are so certain of yourself. Kindly take this as a lesson learnt.

Personally, I was ready to sell of part of my holding at the right price (and possibly re-enter at a lower price). However, it did not get there, so I continue to hold. I speculate but Jubilee is one of those shares I would be loathe to sell and then be unable to buy back.

I actually think the price of 220 undervalues the share but since folks are willing to sell at 200, that's what I will offer them and if they drop their asks, so will my bids drop.

So relax Jubilee will make you money (if you are patient), but not necessarily in the short run.

miser wrote:
Shhh...woi...eehh..haaa vindole vimeungua!In short 2 days have made a loss of 50k on this share.The share lose by 40 bob when the so called good results were out but today its down by 20 bob!What the #@$! is this?Hey who else got burnt?Let us commiserate...

msimon
#8 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 1:36:24 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 8/23/2010
Posts: 63
Location: Kampala
Sure wrote:
Jubilee sold over 1.7 billion of quoted company shares because they fear the political climate may start pouring in torrents. They did not intend to give the cash to shareholders cauze they intend to reinvent the same in shares that will come down clashing due to the political upheavals likely to be seen this yr and next year. This is a no brainer. Today, the share has no takers. Bids are at 100. Let the share deflate. At least, BBK was descent enough to give a fat dividend from sale proceeds.


You know, if you look closely at the results, Jubilee made a loss of more than 2bn. and the sale was to cushion and report something nice.
A little bird on the exchange told me to watch that centum did the same thing a few weeks ago when the sold some major holdings of carbacide.(i dont know how true that is, although i saw that trade that day).
Now Jubilee because it has accumulated unrealized gains in their portfolio can decide to always keep doing the same in days when the business is bleeding. Think abt it. Net premiums were 5.3bn Claims payable 7.5bn(net claims 5.6bn), other expenses 2.4bn, already thats a loss of -2.7bn. Now they had to sale some stock and also report the unrealized gain to cushion them from a fire sale.
the deal
#9 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 2:40:57 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@Mwanahisa a lot lies are being peddled about JUB i tend to ignore such kind of utterances, i'm a buyer at 200 bob...gross-expenses=net, net-net=? and u are right JUB is not only insurance, they have investments ranging from energy, property even to Agric i.e Farmers Choice why not talk about such.
the deal
#10 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 2:43:20 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@Mwanahisa a lot lies are being peddled about JUB i tend to ignore such kind of utterances, i'm a buyer at 200 bob...gross-expenses=net, net-net=? and u are right JUB is not only insurance, they have investments ranging from energy, property even to Agric i.e Farmers Choice why not talk about such.
erifloss
#11 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 2:53:30 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
Writings were on the wall yesterday from 11.05 when price stuck at 220 and no one wanted to cave in and at that time the best ask was at around 235-240 then immediately suppliers started to drop prices at a rate of around 5 till it got to 220 when most bidders seemed not to give in. Sold my holdings then @220. I've realized one thing about the Kenyan Market, never get in on the day of the announcement, sell on the first hour of announcement or when the market is about to close on the same day. On the second day put your sale order in during the pre-order time and try and sell before 10.30.
This is because most guys buy the headline before reading in between the lines. Take an example of a share in a US company when once crashed on old news that had been mistakenly filtered by their systems and by the time people realized guys had made a kill while others had massively lost.
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
the deal
#12 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 4:17:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Todays's share price crush is not fundamentally driven, just speculators trying to cash in check this video out and hear the C.EO. speak himself http://contrarianinvesti...lee-fy-results-2010.html
youcan'tstopusnow
#13 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 4:48:05 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
When msimon talks insurance, sikilizeni!
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
mwanahisa
#14 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 7:03:28 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
I respect msimon's views on insurance matters. However, in this case he is misrepresenting some issues. But right now I am quite happy for him to do as it might just enable me to get this stock cheap. I will refute them once I have my fill of the share. Selfish? Of course, but that's the way of the world!
Aguytrying
#15 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 8:34:27 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
mwanahisa wrote:
I respect msimon's views on insurance matters. However, in this case he is misrepresenting some issues. But right now I am quite happy for him to do as it might just enable me to get this stock cheap. I will refute them once I have my fill of the share. Selfish? Of course, but that's the way of the world!


I see you are a believer in the "wazua effect" on the N.S.E. I've counter checked what m(simon) says [couldn't resist], and the figures are true. what i wonder is of the sale that he claims covered the "loss", exactly how much was just stocks? And please just tell us what you see, oh great guru of wazua. The events since release have softened my 250 price tag, and may buckle very soon.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
the deal
#16 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 10:30:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
When msimon talks insurance, sikilizeni!

@msimon is ryt..guys lets sell kesho b4 its too late...
Aguytrying
#17 Posted : Thursday, April 07, 2011 7:02:36 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
the deal wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
When msimon talks insurance, sikilizeni!

@msimon is ryt..guys lets sell kesho b4 its too late...


sarcism?
d'oh!
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
the deal
#18 Posted : Thursday, April 07, 2011 9:07:12 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@aguy msimon has the facts in fact we sell below 200
msimon
#19 Posted : Thursday, April 07, 2011 10:04:12 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 8/23/2010
Posts: 63
Location: Kampala
mwanahisa wrote:
I respect msimon's views on insurance matters. However, in this case he is misrepresenting some issues. But right now I am quite happy for him to do as it might just enable me to get this stock cheap. I will refute them once I have my fill of the share. Selfish? Of course, but that's the way of the world!



mwanahisa- indeed i may be wrong on some matters no doubt, but i wouldn't be a net buyer of this stock at current levels. Its a great company no doubt, but its not a great investment at the moment.
Now here is a new gospel when it comes to insurance play. For plain corporate action aka special situation, you can consider Pan African, both before the book closure on bonus and div. and after the book closure. Why? Well its simple. They are selling their 40% stake in APA. What's that in shilling value? Depends on your valuations for APA. Now based on how we value insurance companies,(Float and its cost!) and book value measures, you would have a best case scenario of 1.7bn(40% on assumptions that it has a 95 underwriting margin and investment income using 3yr averages), mild scenario of 700m(40% on assumptions that 95 underwriting margins and investments are made only in long term government bonds), or worst case of 420m(420m is based on 40% of book-value end of 2009). That would provide support for the stock and will be a catalyst for a great dividend in the next financial year. So your overall returns could be well in excess of 40-50% for the year. We dont believe in stock tips but we think this would be great. The better thing is for the price to go below 90.
The other alternative for the long haul is Kenya Re. am more than certain that this stock will reward the patient ones. Jubilee at below 110, would be a steal, but what are the odds for those who lack it in the portfolio?
Disclaimer: These are personal views and are in no ways stock recommendations
the deal
#20 Posted : Thursday, April 07, 2011 10:10:21 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Yaaaawn nobobody selling at 200 bob or below.....
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