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CBK Governor No Match to Kenyan Banks.
kizee1
#41 Posted : Tuesday, April 05, 2011 5:52:58 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
kizee1 wrote:
any1 kno how i cud short bank stocks?

You can start by offloading your current bank stocks! It will only be a good move if the rates keep their upward momentum!


short sellin means i dont have any lol...
mukiha
#42 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 9:17:53 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
kizee1 wrote:
mukiha wrote:
BTW: As I stated earlier, Equity made sh2b from bond trading. That information is in their annual report, note 9.

And is a revaluation surplus treated as an income? i don't think so, but accountants in the house can clarify....



revaluation is treated as income..chek out IAS 39 and the meaning of mark to market, did u follow the int rate trends of last year? just do the math...ur a brite lad...[b]chek out the trading books of some of the large banks and u will have ur answer
....

I am getting irritated by your "secretiveness". You keep talking about "big banks" and how they are making loads of profits from G-secs, but you are not giving any details.

Now, I am a shareholder in Equity [which is one of the biggest banks in Kenya, if not THE biggest], can you refer me to the page where I will find this information that you are talking about?

The only one I can see is in note 9[b] {page 77} of the report. and it say clearly: "Net trading income [from] bonds trading = Sh2.048b"

As I noted earlier, this is just under 10% of the banks total income of Sh22.153b [see consolidated income statement on page 38].

I repeat: bond trading is not a major income for banks. This is just fallacious opinion peddled by lazy and incompetent Kenya financial journalists - most of whom cannot tell the difference between a balance sheet and an income statement!
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
drake
#43 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 10:30:08 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/8/2009
Posts: 170
Perhaps the ''lazy and incompetent Kenya financial journalists '' are

1. talking about the 'total return'
i.e cap gains + interest income + fees & commissions + other

2. about (1), relative to how much the same contributes to operating profits for COMMERCIAL banks in other countries and jurisdictions ....with the same risk profile.

25 minutes max to confirm this (use moody's / S&P local debt ratings as a proxy for risk profile)

....and while SCBK is more the exception than the rule, this is quite interesting all the same...

http://www.standardchart...0Pack%20Disclosures.pdf

selah
#44 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 10:36:21 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
mukiha wrote:


I repeat: bond trading is not a major income for banks. This is just fallacious opinion peddled by lazy and incompetent Kenya financial journalists - most of whom cannot tell the difference between a balance sheet and an income statement!


How do you then explain a paltry 21% growth in Equity's loan book against 169% growth in investment securities in the last FY.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
kizee1
#45 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 10:44:14 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
selah wrote:
mukiha wrote:


I repeat: bond trading is not a major income for banks. This is just fallacious opinion peddled by lazy and incompetent Kenya financial journalists - most of whom cannot tell the difference between a balance sheet and an income statement!


How do you then explain a paltry 21% growth in Equity's loan book against 169% growth in investment securities in the last FY.




very valid point..and for mr irritated, pole jo..selah seems to have done his own bit of invsetigating..btw im not even talkin about equity
mukiha
#46 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 12:17:13 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
selah wrote:
mukiha wrote:


I repeat: bond trading is not a major income for banks. This is just fallacious opinion peddled by lazy and incompetent Kenya financial journalists - most of whom cannot tell the difference between a balance sheet and an income statement!


How do you then explain a paltry 21% growth in Equity's loan book against 169% growth in investment securities in the last FY.

Holding a huge sum in G-secs does NOT mean they are making a lot of money from there! It only means they have nowhere else to keep the customer deposits.

The bulk of the banks' income comes from interest charged on loans and advances to customers.

Please note that I am not saying they don't make money from bond trading; I am rejecting the fallacious notion that the bulk of these profits are from trading of G-secs. That notion is simply not true.

BTW: I am still waiting for anyone to put here data to show that G-sec trading contributes a lot more than the 10% of income that I have stated above.

Show us a bank that made say, 20% of income from G-sec trading and this debate will come to an end.
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
mukiha
#47 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 12:21:48 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
drake wrote:
Perhaps the ''lazy and incompetent Kenya financial journalists '' are

1. talking about the 'total return'
i.e cap gains + interest income + fees & commissions + other

2. about (1), relative to how much the same contributes to operating profits for COMMERCIAL banks in other countries and jurisdictions ....with the same risk profile.

25 minutes max to confirm this (use moody's / S&P local debt ratings as a proxy for risk profile)

....and while SCBK is more the exception than the rule, this is quite interesting all the same...

http://www.standardchart...0Pack%20Disclosures.pdf


The SCB report whose link you have provided has the following figures:

Total Operating income = Sh14.15b

Other income (which, presumably include G-sec trading) = Sh1.513b

Clearly; this is also within the 10% I have been talking about!!
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
mukiha
#48 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 12:25:56 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
kizee1 wrote:
selah wrote:
mukiha wrote:


I repeat: bond trading is not a major income for banks. This is just fallacious opinion peddled by lazy and incompetent Kenya financial journalists - most of whom cannot tell the difference between a balance sheet and an income statement!


How do you then explain a paltry 21% growth in Equity's loan book against 169% growth in investment securities in the last FY.




very valid point..and for mr irritated, pole jo..selah seems to have done his own bit of invsetigating..btw im not even talkin about equity

@kizee1; I disagree. @selah has done absolutely no homework! S/he has not posted any evidence whatsoever to support her/his position! This is what I am finding irritating.

@drake has done better; but the evidence s/he has given only goes to support my position that G-sec trading only contributes about 10% of the total income of the banks!
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
kizee1
#49 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 12:51:23 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
ok guess ur very rite and the rest of us who actually are insiders are wrong...sawa bro, this is my last post on this matter
mukiha
#50 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 1:05:04 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
kizee1 wrote:
ok guess ur very rite and the rest of us who actually are insiders are wrong...sawa bro, this is my last post on this matter

"A tiger does not proclaim his tigritude, he pounces"
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
selah
#51 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 1:19:38 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
@ Mukiha If we are to analyse EB income growth for 2010 this is how it went.

Loans(interest income)= 20% growth
investment securities = 77% growth
Bonds trading income = 3100% growth

loans & advances income = 11.7 billion
Investment + bonds income = 4.4 billion

Refer to EB 2010 annual report.

I am a HE by the way.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
mukiha
#52 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 1:31:16 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
@Selah: Now we are getting somewhere...

Agreed - the income from bond trading has increased by a big margin from sh64m to sh2b. However, this still remains at around 10% of total income [sh22b].

Interest income from securities is sh2.3b... but compared to the sh11b earned from interest on loans and advances, we cannot truthfully say that "most of the income is from g-secs, can we?
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
selah
#53 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 1:51:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
mukiha wrote:
@Selah: Now we are getting somewhere...

Agreed - the income from bond trading has increased by a big margin from sh64m to sh2b. However, this still remains at around 10% of total income [sh22b].

Interest income from securities is sh2.3b... but compared to the sh11b earned from interest on loans and advances, we cannot truthfully say that "most of the income is from g-secs, can we?


obviously not, but you can see this increase from a bank known for its lending shows a trend which I think if we were to analyse other banks is an entrenched strategy.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
mozenrat
#54 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 3:29:07 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/18/2008
Posts: 796
@Selah.. Now you've changed the argument. Your initial argument was the equivalent of saying that Safaricom earns MOST of its revenue from M-PESA as opposed to pre-paid calls and providing as evidence the fact that M-PESA has grown faster than pre-paid calls.

Now that you and @Kizee could not provide concrete support for your argument, you're now saying that M-PESA is the key strategic weapon for the future and not pre-paid calls. Those are two very different arguments (insider or not!)
selah
#55 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 3:42:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
@mozenrat my argument was,due to lazy banking, the CBK governor is powerless in his fight to bring the lending rates down.And I suspect[no evidence yet] banks had a hand in the speculation of the Ksh. to armtwist the governor to intervene by raising the CBR so as to reap more from G-sec,Which in essence beat the purpose of banks in stimulating our economy through lending to the private sector.That was my initial stand and it still stands.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
Scubidu
#56 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 5:23:35 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
My 2cents.

From the article

The government, through its budget deficit, has significantly contributed to the banking industry’s profitability and encouraged “lazy banking”. “Lazing Banking” is an evocative phrase that that was first coined by an Indian central banker in 2002 to describe a situation where banks made easy money by parking their funds in risk-free government securities beyond reserve requirements rather than lending to the more productive sectors of the economy.

The governor is powerless but not cause of lazy banking but because he has no autonomy to run things the way he wants to. If they don't facilitate lazy banking the budget deficits will be more expensive. If he does savings and credit may likely be misallocated or distributed inefficiently.

I believe the problem lies in the budgeting of expenditures. It creates a situation where the Treasury will tell us the domestic borrowing programme will have to be raised by 14% but also plans expenditure cuts in H2 (poor planning/budgeting).

So raising the CBR in the midst of higher inflation raises bond rates which is necessary for lazy banking, but also creates higher liquidity risk which effects private sector lending. Lowering the CBR also promotes lazy banking as players chase rising bond prices and our cartel like banking structure creates a situation where no savings are passed through to borrowers. CBK is powerless to contain this cartel.

So is there a solution to this problem? Is it arming CBK with better tools or giving it more autonomy? or something else?
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
tutebeng
#57 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 6:34:06 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/29/2009
Posts: 40
If the CBK changed the inter-mediation process of G-secs, banks actions in this market may not be misconstrued as ....lazy banking. If one refers to the case that got the Salomon Brothers into a tight spot in the 1990s, there may be a framework rethink.
drake
#58 Posted : Thursday, April 07, 2011 10:11:26 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/8/2009
Posts: 170
mukiha wrote:

@drake has done better; but the evidence s/he has given only goes to support my position that G-sec trading only contributes about 10% of the total income of the banks!


@Mukiha
Therein lies the rub…..you’re talking about “bond trading income” (which is not necessarily the only component of Other Income btw) you’re looking at the price returns & perhaps fees & commish…....TOTAL return factors in both price return AND INCOME(Interest or Dividends) for a PORTFOLIO OF SECURITIES….. I know you know what I mean.

Still, if in doubt, kindly follow the links below for guidance:
http://www.investopedia....terms/t/totalreturn.asp
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_return

Post-Damascus, you will now notice that SCBK’s G-Sec PORTFOLIO contributes more than 20% of Operating Income and more than 44% of Interest Income.

And here’s another interesting fact from Equity. Go over to 5b Credit risk – Notes to the financial statements: and look at the sector concentration for the bank’s assets … Then flip over to Note 21 for investment securities

Figs In MM
Consumer: -- 31,970
Micro Credit: -- 8,702
Agric: -- 2,598
SME: -- 17,083
Corporate: -- 14,294
G-Sec: -- 31,911

This backs up what @Scubidu is saying. Also, these figures should show you how come G-Secs contribute that much....
mukiha
#59 Posted : Thursday, April 07, 2011 2:39:37 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
drake wrote:
mukiha wrote:

@drake has done better; but the evidence s/he has given only goes to support my position that G-sec trading only contributes about 10% of the total income of the banks!


@Mukiha
Therein lies the rub…..you’re talking about “bond trading income” (which is not necessarily the only component of Other Income btw) you’re looking at the price returns & perhaps fees & commish…....TOTAL return factors in both price return AND INCOME(Interest or Dividends) for a PORTFOLIO OF SECURITIES….. I know you know what I mean.

Still, if in doubt, kindly follow the links below for guidance:
http://www.investopedia....terms/t/totalreturn.asp
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_return

Post-Damascus, you will now notice that SCBK’s G-Sec PORTFOLIO contributes more than 20% of Operating Income and more than 44% of Interest Income.

And here’s another interesting fact from Equity. Go over to 5b Credit risk – Notes to the financial statements: and look at the sector concentration for the bank’s assets … Then flip over to Note 21 for investment securities

Figs In MM
Consumer: -- 31,970
Micro Credit: -- 8,702
Agric: -- 2,598
SME: -- 17,083
Corporate: -- 14,294
G-Sec: -- 31,911

This backs up what @Scubidu is saying. Also, these figures should show you how come G-Secs contribute that much....

@drake; the figures you have given are the HOLDINGS of the various asset classes. These are not [I repeat; NOT] the incomes!

Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
nyari
#60 Posted : Thursday, April 07, 2011 3:31:32 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 94
Kenyan Banks will be tamed when CBK pushes them into the secondary market by extending the bidding to Large Multinational Banks(read American banks) with deeper pockets and at lower rates
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