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Jubilee Holdings results FY2010 profit jumps 84 pct
the deal
#41 Posted : Monday, April 04, 2011 12:04:15 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
mwanahisa wrote:
You need to read my comments to you when you announced that you had sold your Jubilee sometime back. Anyway, welcome back to JHL. Incidentally, I now do not expect a big jump in the share price but I would at least expect it to stabilize at over the 200/- level.

the deal wrote:
my friends read my blog, that was a 5 star perfomance from JBL and the price will follow accordingly...i will try and get more at this levels.


smile smile smile i never sold everything but at that time i was 80% into JUB...i regret though but remeber i bought at 200 bob then...and the see saw too 170 was too much..
erifloss
#42 Posted : Monday, April 04, 2011 12:24:51 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
I love the stand-off:
Best bid is 200 at a demand of 42,700 shares while the best ask is 220 and the supply is just 7,200 shares. Can't get better than this, since 10.54 last sale at 200 i'm not seeing any other transaction. Who is going to cave in first?
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
mwanahisa
#43 Posted : Monday, April 04, 2011 12:30:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Kirika, I do hope that you have not just been waiting, even as the share price fell. My own strategy whenever I target a particular company, is to buy a few shares as the price falls, increasing my buying quantity with the falling price. The reason is that you never quite know where a share is going to bottom and even then, for a share like JHL, you may not be able to get the volume(s) you want at a very low price.

With these results, I am afraid that 150/= has become much more unlikely, but if it does ever get to that level, I will be there buying along with you.

Kirika wrote:
@ Mwanahisa

You clearly dont know how badly ive waited with baited breath for this baby (Jubilee).

I frankly give a hats off for the outstanding performance, but at the end of the day i want to buy a wonderful company at a fair price and not the other way round.

The highest i would bid it for in this current bear is Ksh 150 pap !

mwanahisa
#44 Posted : Monday, April 04, 2011 12:55:35 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
I have done a very quick review of the Jubilee results and I can see a few reasons why the share price has not skyrocketed as per my (and others) expectations. This is besides the current cautious stance being taken by many investors with their fear of the bear.

The reasons are as follows:

1. A large chunk of the rise in profits is due to unrealized profits. Net fair value gains of financial assets through P&L have gone up by about 1.31 billion. Can this be repeated in 2011? Possible but no certainty. In the event of a meltdown on the NSE, this could just as easily be clawed back. On the positive side, JHL were net sellers of shares in 2010.

2.Income Tax expense has only gone up by about 12 million shillings (approximately 5%), corroborating point 1 above.

3. Cash flow from operating activities has only risen by 13%.

Notwithstanding the above, I believe that JHL was undervalued before these results and has now become even more so. I will be looking to buying more when the share price settles.
holycow
#45 Posted : Monday, April 04, 2011 1:12:01 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/11/2006
Posts: 972
Location: Home
erifloss wrote:
I love the stand-off:
Best bid is 200 at a demand of 42,700 shares while the best ask is 220 and the supply is just 7,200 shares. Can't get better than this, since 10.54 last sale at 200 i'm not seeing any other transaction. Who is going to cave in first?


Its Just done 220/=
mwanahisa
#46 Posted : Monday, April 04, 2011 1:32:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
And it is only a start...

For those not in the Jubilee gravy train, it may be worth looking at other companies in related businesses that have not had such a big rise in prices. See my post on KenRe. Folks had better start watching Centum very closely as well.

holycow wrote:
Its Just done 220/=

the deal
#47 Posted : Monday, April 04, 2011 1:55:01 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@Mwanahisa should be my drinking buddy..do u take Mututhos as its affectionately known in campus?...lol
mwanahisa
#48 Posted : Monday, April 04, 2011 3:00:31 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
I do imbibe but I am rarely in town. Maybe one of these fine days...In any case thanks!

the deal wrote:
@Mwanahisa should be my drinking buddy..do u take Mututhos as its affectionately known in campus?...lol

Impunity
#49 Posted : Monday, April 04, 2011 6:49:56 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,330
Location: Masada
Jibilee-Jibileeeee oooh Jibile!
Imefunga siku at 216, were it not for O-6 this week, it would have touched the sweet 250!
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.

the deal
#50 Posted : Monday, April 04, 2011 8:48:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
I was listening to the CEO of JUB on Cnbc Africa they're aim is to be the no 1 insurer in Africa and he was very bullish about 2011
mlennyma
#51 Posted : Tuesday, April 05, 2011 8:17:19 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,191
Location: nairobi
I had projected atleast to see 220 and it has passed my litmus test.iam convinced the nse is among the top investment platforms.imagine from 175 to 220?almost all stocks will tripple for the five years after 2012 if we dont butcher each other.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Iborian
#52 Posted : Tuesday, April 05, 2011 10:36:59 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/17/2009
Posts: 194
These were good results, no doubt about it, but if the NSE does not perform as well in 2011 as it did in 2010, Jubilee's profits will definitely come down in a big way.
msimon
#53 Posted : Tuesday, April 05, 2011 10:55:58 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 8/23/2010
Posts: 63
Location: Kampala
mlennyma wrote:
I had projected atleast to see 220 and it has passed my litmus test.iam convinced the nse is among the top investment platforms.imagine from 175 to 220?almost all stocks will tripple for the five years after 2012 if we dont butcher each other.


I wont allow myself to be taken up in this euphoria. After close examination of the results, Jubilee is overvalued and the only excitement will come in form of the bonus issue. Look closely at the cashflow from operations, these guys generated no free cashflow last year. The positive cashflow from operating activities is enhanced by the DAC's and the changes in insurance contract liabilities and reserves.(these are negatives ultimately). Insurers profit in a 3 pronged way.
1. Through underwriting margins.
2. Through Investment Income
3. Appreciation of the value of the assets.

Typically, you want an insurer whose management focuses on all the three in that order. Now for Jubilee, indeed they have a great management team, but the euphoria surrounding the results is baseless as its driven by the 3rd which is erratic and prone to wild swings. Now had the NSE been up 10-12% last year, then jubilee would have relied on the bonus bonanza for the stock to be up 25%. Because, if you ignore the changes in portfolio market at market, jubilee would be in a loss position of -2,224,502,000. Yes, thats true. But the unrealized gains in the investment portfolio market at market show a total of 3,782,400,000. Note that in the previous -2,224,502,000, i had included share of results of associates after income tax, meaning that if i were to ignore it too, the loss position would be enormous. At current prices, investors are bidding it at 2.2x book. This makes it extremely overvalued, especially when you weigh it against returns of other stocks in similar segments. Now if your playing it for the bonus bonanza, well and good. But if your allocating capital, now wouldn't be the time to touch this honey.
the deal
#54 Posted : Tuesday, April 05, 2011 11:50:58 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
msimon go back 5 yrs from now...JUB has never reported reduced profits or losses....
VituVingiSana
#55 Posted : Tuesday, April 05, 2011 2:21:51 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,221
Location: Nairobi
This is a comment on Jubilee the firm, not the share price!

Jubilee is a very well run firm that is consistently profitable... The run a good shop which has proven very reliable...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ms Mkenya
#56 Posted : Tuesday, April 05, 2011 2:51:31 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/13/2010
Posts: 869
Location: Nairobi
Good info
....above all, to stand.
ngapat
#57 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 9:15:16 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/11/2006
Posts: 896
A big rise in profits came from "other revenue" which rose by 110% as opposed to insurance business
http://www.nse.co.ke/new...d%20December%202010.pdf
What are these other revenues and are they sustainable?
“Invest in yourself. Your career is the engine of your wealth.”
Sure
#58 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 10:10:22 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/9/2010
Posts: 546
Location: Garissa
ngapat wrote:
A big rise in profits came from "other revenue" which rose by 110% as opposed to insurance business
http://www.nse.co.ke/new...d%20December%202010.pdf
What are these other revenues and are they sustainable?


They sold quoted shares for 1.75 billion. I would want to know the specific shares they had initially bought and when. If the company accounts for quoted shares on its books at market value, large swings in financial reports is expected.

Diamond was at it with 1 billion from bond trading. Nation with adverts etc. The Aga Khan empire is taking shape.
Wisdom to detect when share prices hit rock bottom.
When interest on bonds keep going up, you know the bear run is on high street. When interest on bonds start leveling, the bear has met the bull and they have hit rock bottom. When the interest rates on bonds start coming down, the bull has overpowered the bear and you better be riding the bull.
mwanahisa
#59 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 10:29:25 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Sure wrote:
I would want to know the specific shares they had initially bought and when.


Jubilee treats this as proprietary information. It is certainly not disclosed on their financials, but there are ways round it, but it requires quite a bit of sweat. Even I have not quite managed to complete building my database on their portfolio in its entirety.

I am waiting for the share to drift back down to 200 as I am more convinced than ever that I should bequeath this share to my grandchildren, whenever they may come, though I can't see that happening soon!
The Merchant
#60 Posted : Wednesday, April 06, 2011 11:11:57 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
Back to 200/- even before I had time to decide whether I should cash in on some! Sad
Oh well, Ill just have to continue accumulating again......
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