hisah, are you saying the global economy is as worse off now as it was during the GFC? BRIC is showing strong growth. They even manged to add a couple of billionaires (see Forbes).
Demand for Africa's raw materials is growing.
Concerning the revolutions in Middle East, the citizen will eventually come out of it better. I doubt we will sink to those lows of 2007/2008 again.
Some commentators are even saying that the Earthquake/Tsunami in Japan will lead to a faster growth due to all the money they will spend in reconstruction.
If as you say the equity markets fall, no much harm will be done by gradually buying into stocks as indices continue the slide until the end of the "crisis", as I feel some counters (banks) are undervalued. This is important as no one has a crystal ball to no which direction the market will take.
Still got an eye on NIC?

Wikileaks is making politicians in India to sweat - http://www.newkerala.com...ld/fullnews-173572.html

Seeking Early Stage Resource Investments in Africa (Oil and Gas, Mining, Agriculture)

The investor(s) expect to see (for evaluation purposes):

1. A presentation. Executive Summary, Background, Opportunity, Team, Business and Operations, Financials, Returns, Timeline. If a project, describe the project.

2. A financial model.

3. An information memorandum / document (that explains stuff in greater detail) including analysis of the risk factors.

4. Any useful supporting information.

5. Return profile: >25% and Size: US $50MM minimum


The project must be in a finished state with a company with some kind or organizational structure already having been formed. The company has to put together an investment thesis for their investment. A financial model is great (when it works) but it is not an investment thesis.


Please let me of a good candidate via karanjakinuthia@hotmail.com



Kind regards,


Kinuthia Karanja
Associate Partner,
Interim Solutions
Deal Flow Provider,
Equity Partners Fund SPC
Skype: kinuthia.karanja
Linked In: http://ke.linkedin.com/p...thia-karanja/1b/501/479
Deal Avenue: http://investorslounge.tumblr.com/

REMEDIAL SOLUTIONS FOR OUR FX WOES..........



Last time I exposed to you guys how and why the dollar is beating our currency like a wet mule.
Today I want to come to you with just 2% of the initiatives that are needed, as a solution to stabilize our exchange rate.

You see …….the other day our CBK went messy all over again and decided to hike our interest rate……hehehehe…..what’s wrong with this guys…..

The verdict here is obvious …that when you hike the rate in Kenya under current situation, you are only weakening the shilling in the long run …period .nothing more nothing less.

Higher rates in Kenya means expensive cost of borrowing…..when you make the borrowing expensive then you will have simply undermined the momentum of entrepreneurship and investment in our already ailing economy….as you will have hindered or brought into a halt the momentum of monetary supply.

We all know that a stable rate of exchange also helps in not only stabilizing…. but enhancing an economy of a nation.

So what can we really do in order to make the dollar cheap as our nation being the net importer, we know very well that a cheap dollar here locally also means cheap cost of goods and services.

Still using the same theory of inflow and outflow, I would like to advise on some initiatives that gives a balance of higher inflow of the dollar, with little or no outflow of the dollar as well.

With high inflow and low outflow as such, we will end up having the dollar flooding our market thus making it cheap.

The following are some few outline of solution that I would propose therein:

…………IF I WAS THE CBK GOVERNOR…………..,

First….. I would not be issuing saving and investments bonds as he is doing today to raise capital of funding the stalled govt projects…..no…no…no…

Instead I would be issuing out what we call sovereign bonds…a sovereign bond is a debt security issued by a national government within a given country and denominated in a foreign currency. Usually the government of a country with an unstable economy will tend to denominate its bonds in the currency of a country with a stable economy.

Through such an initiative, we will attract plenty of American investors coming to buy those bonds as they will be taking the advantage of interest rate differential whereby they can only get 0.25% return when they invest in their country (USA) ,whereas the same investment can give out a 6% return here in Kenya which is 2400% more compared to what they can get back at home……

Again this will likely have to influence the Americans to borrow cheaply from their market at 0.25% and invest expensively in Kenya at 6%....and our CBK will have wittily ensnared the American billions in to our economy………………..

Do you see how brainy central bankers around the world take advantage of situations…….?
Hehehehehe……uuuuuuiiiiiiii………nyinyi wakenya mko na central bank….. kweli

However such kind of a move will help a lot in giving plenty supply of dollars in our economy …which in turn will help in loosening the tight supply of the dollars which is affecting us seriously.

As the dollars will now surplus our market thus making it cheap…, which the same shall translate to our cost of import…and being an importing nation then we shall import cheaply thus stabilizing our cost of living, enhancing the purchasing power of our shilling and even making the condition of living cheaper and bearable as we would have also brought down our unprecedented level of inflation………right ! ! ! !

Again this kind of approach will not have any negative impact on our economy as it will not affect our money supply since the CBK will not be taking money from the people as it is doing now……….

Instead it will be very advantageous because a lot of capital will be left still in circulation and more will even be added on.

Beside that our govt will have a very big advantage as it would have borrowed expensively but paid cheaply……………..what do I mean by this…………….?

What I mean is…….if our govt borrows 1 million dollars at the current exchange rate…….after conversion, it will have roughly around 82millions Kenya shilling……as cash at hand….

As this move of issuing sovereign or dollar dominated bond will make it cheaper due to it surplus in the market…………then the exchange rate will have to go down as the dollar value will have depreciated even lets say to a level of 60ksh…………….

Then during the time of pay back…………our govt will only have to raise 60 millions Kenya shilling to pay back 1 million dollar….,as opposed to 82 millions when it was borrowing …….see ! ! ! ! ! 24 millions extra will be left in our economy..

hehehehe…..now you know what I mean by govt borrowing expensively and paying back cheaply.

This is the approach I would have made if I was the CBK governor today………….

………IF I WAS THE MINISTER FOR FINANCE…..

…..i would waive export taxes in all exported goods that have been produced locally.

This will promote export so much that in the end, we will have plenty of dollars flooding our market which will also make it cheap thus with a cheap dollar, it means we will also import cheaply.

Also, I would not enter into trade agreements blindly.
Actually first of all, I could pull out of COMESA there and then.

If you enter into economic blocks like a fool, you will have sly countries with cheap cost of production than yours, flooding your market with goods that can be produced by your local industries ,which will end up killing your national productivity….yet there is nothing you can do as you are already bonded by the trade agreements……ie how Egypt is now dumping cheap goods locally which we have capability of producing ……….how can we have sugar from a desert nation like EGYPT…..yet we are not able to pay our farmers locally…….?

Instead …,i would choose trade partners carefully basing my search mostly on…..UNDER PRODUCER OF WHAT WE OVER PRODUCE …BUT ARE OVER PRODUCER OF WHAT WE UNDER PRODUCE….right ! ! ! !

For instance IRAN is an over producer of oil and pharmaceuticals but are under producer of milk, beef, coffee and tea………whereas Kenya is an over producer of what IRAN under produce.

Still on the same approach I would court Pakistan as it is the over producer of rice which we under produce but are over consumer of tea which we over produce.

As a minister for finance .i would enter into trade agreement with such partners based on currency swap agreement, in that we be reviewing often the value of trade deficit….., as in who has over supplied who …and who has under supplied who……..

In that sense, the difference of supply will be settled through supplying extra quantity in the value of deficit rather than using cash for settlements.

This will help in curbing flowing out of the dollars in our market as such settlements are usually done using the dollar which is easy to liquidate ….., hand in hand with that …this will help in maintaining exchange rate stability as well as harmonizing the balance of payment which is the most infectious source of an ailing rate of exchange rate stability in a country.

Other than dollar flow out….., foreign settlements and purchases, act as a leakage of capital circulation in an economy, since our local currency must be sent out to do purchases, when there is less of foreign currency locally that can be converted in to that preferred foreign currency of intended purchase in that foreign country………then we have to move ours there.

Like our Kenyan case ,when our currency is sent out to those foreign reserves, for prospected import purchase, this lead to capital dehydration in our economy out of our currency being held in foreign reserves by foreign banks.

If the foreigners have less or no purchases to make from our country, then our currency is held in their vaults and counted as settlement deficit in dues.

Such settlements’ in due ,held in overseas banks reserves actually acts as leakage in the stream of capital circulation, which in turn dehydrate our economy off money supply ,which leads in to deficiency of business activities in our economy and eventually we end up with an anemic economy…..’’ndio unaona watu Kenya hawana pesa ama …Kenya hakuna pesa’’…’’unashindwa pesa imeenda wapi’’

And this is just 2% of 100% of what should be done…….simple yet great

And this is brent oil... I thot the haus of saud said above $120/barrel they'd intervene mercilessly than the ECB, BOJ & the recent G7 yen intervention... Expensive oil with global econ recovery... Interesting theme this one... How will central banks cook figures this time? Welcome to global deflation yet again! Wash, rinse, wringe, dry & repeat, history cycles with global debt bubble for sub-prime bubble instead...