Wazua
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We are in a Bear Market: Whats your Strategy?
Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2011 Posts: 264 Location: Nairobi
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For Sport wrote:youcan'tstopusnow wrote:Don't try to time the market. Just buy gradually. This works for me. I’m pathetic at timing. Have been investing a regular amount on a monthly basis. Will keep buying all the way to the bottom of this bear. Main focus is on blue chips, particularly those whose price is way up there in a normal market. Will be adding me some beer, some banks (BBK, KCB) and maybe some oil – stocks i’ve been holding for some time, and will be happy to hold anytime. Also keeping a piggy bank (my war chest) in the hope that the doom enough of us are predicting for next year at the nse comes to pass. When the market turns up, I’ll stop buying and watch people chasing the price up (and starting threads on this and that bus or plane taking off). I have time on my side. Am pathetic at timimg too. I once chased a stock and it dint end well. It helps when you set a price cap above which you just have to let it go. I also an advocate for regular buying in small quantities. say monthly.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Lots of lungula! Tried & tested in '08.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 12/9/2010 Posts: 894 Location: Nairobi
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:Lots of lungula! Tried & tested in '08. meaning. Don't wait for the Last Judgment. It happens every day. ~Albert Camus, The Fall, 1956
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Tommy wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Lots of lungula! Tried & tested in '08. meaning. Having a lot more sex during bear markets is a good way to weather the period.during the last big bear in 2008 it helped me a lot. "u r either getting paid or getting laid"
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/26/2011 Posts: 211 Location: Nairobi
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@ Monomotapa  I've cracked a rib. I was to make a move last few weeks but then i realized the bear is relentless. Now im sitting on my pile of cash and accumulating more maybe for the next 2 years. Hoping to have built a sizeable war chest in 2013 then swoop down on nice pickings. In 3 months the NSE has lost 800 pts, with the politics yet to reach fever pitch i think we may be down another 1000pts. I think its time to hibernate and avoid the bear.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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@Kirika.most welcome. Men r said to be smartest immediately after sex & i'd like to think it contributed to me maintaining in the game. Lol!! <thanx 2 tha ol' gal-wouldn't trade u for anything>
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Bear market it is and may continue for the next one year, but certainly not today, not with a turnover of almost 500M at 12.26PM! @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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How low can Jubilee go? hope it holds at 170 bob.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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the deal wrote:How low can Jubilee go? hope it holds at 170 bob. Hope it goes lower. Note, I am a shareholder but would like more at a lower price.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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This Comrade Mono...is quite the man! But on a serious note, @Kirika, I am quite willing to bet that the market WILL NOT lose another 1,000 points before end of next year. I expect a downward trend but with spikes and troughs along the way but I honestly can't see the NSE going down BELOW 2,900 as you suggest, unless there's CIVIL WAR. Maybe I am too much of an optimist, although I have put some cash aside to take advantage of some bargains that will keep on coming (AND GOING). How much do you want to wager, Kirika? Kirika wrote:@ Monomotapa I've cracked a rib. I was to make a move last few weeks but then i realized the bear is relentless. Now im sitting on my pile of cash and accumulating more maybe for the next 2 years. Hoping to have built a sizeable war chest in 2013 then swoop down on nice pickings. In 3 months the NSE has lost 800 pts, with the politics yet to reach fever pitch i think we may be down another 1000pts. I think its time to hibernate and avoid the bear.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/25/2011 Posts: 946
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now how will all these ipo's coming this year fair....?????? which investor will sink in millions and millions of moneys as we head towards the general elections...Anyway i now truly understand why James Mwangi of Equity bank sold his shares in the bank in such a haste.after all it wount hurt to buy they back at a much lower price...lol.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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@QW, I am thinking some of those IPOs may not see the light of day this year, unless it is a listing by introduction e.g. TransCentury. On the other hand, some may actually find some well heeled underwriters who can provide the required confidence. Underwriters would no doubt demand a significant discount.
As for the the contrarian opinion, we should remember that Coop came into the market in the midst of a bear market and in 20 months, even guys who bought at the IPO price had more than doubled their money. Of course there are those who "bottom fished" at 6/= or thereabouts and actually tripled their money. Either way, if you can last long enough through the "bear", there's money to be made.
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/21/2010 Posts: 514 Location: Nairobi
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@Mwanahisa, most of these guys are the market makers they create the bubbles & burst them. Remember the safcom ipo and what D&B did, what they quoted as their transaction fees? Lets sit back, watch & learn. They lose a few millions just to make the big buck. For economists remember Say's law 'supply creates its own demand' 'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/26/2011 Posts: 211 Location: Nairobi
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@ Mwana
I'm with you on Jubilee, this baby should lose some more weight and i'm waiting to see if the bear will maul it to below Ksh 140. Below that it tooo irresistable to ignore or wait to bottom-out.
As for the market losing 1,000 pts between now and end of next year is a high likelihood and not an impossibility. Like i said earlier, the mkt has lost 800 pts in 3 months, whats 1,000 pts in 2 years ?
Let me in on the counters you think will have troughs and spikes along the way, i wouldnt mind speculating.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/24/2010 Posts: 846 Location: KENYA
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This thread now looks like baseless panic. Oh how Mr Market makes us look so silly, damn!!
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We are in a Bear Market: Whats your Strategy?
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