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NSE ASI all the way to 3200
bartum
#1 Posted : Monday, March 28, 2011 2:09:32 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/11/2010
Posts: 1,011
Location: nairobi
ladies and gentlemaen.
I hereby give out a free advice to those who have eyes and hears. The market will blunge to sub 3200 betw now and may next year be prepared to take blue chips.
I may be pessimist be the truth though lies ahead.
I addition leads not bid too high in CIC shares dont exceed 35. I still have to fill my target
mlennyma
#2 Posted : Monday, March 28, 2011 2:33:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,191
Location: nairobi
Yes,and towards august 2800 and this are some prices you will see...kcb..17 mumias...5 safcom...2.80 KK...7 Kengen....10 kre...8 kplc.,.16 equity 15 and the list will be endless.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
2012
#3 Posted : Monday, March 28, 2011 3:04:51 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
Yes,and towards august 2800 and this are some prices you will see...kcb..17 mumias...5 safcom...2.80 KK...7 Kengen....10 kre...8 kplc.,.16 equity 15 and the list will be endless.


I think you've been too kind to some counters, all the same I think there will be a short lived bull run around May.

BBI will solve it
:)
Muthawamunene
#4 Posted : Monday, March 28, 2011 3:23:09 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2011
Posts: 264
Location: Nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
Yes,and towards august 2800 and this are some prices you will see...kcb..17 mumias...5 safcom...2.80 KK...7 Kengen....10 kre...8 kplc.,.16 equity 15 and the list will be endless.


Though very pessimistic, i hope your prediction comes true. But i doubt we will get past 3500 points. And if it does, the agriculturals will be the main cause and not the counters you've listed above.

Am all for low prices till jan 2013, if there is no pick pick up by then, sijui kutaendaje.
mwanahisa
#5 Posted : Monday, March 28, 2011 4:08:38 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
It's possible for the market to fall to the level you have cited but I think it is unlikely.

All the same a good strategy would be to have plenty of cash and/or other assets that one can bring into the market if the NSE does indeed plunge to the levels you are anticipating.

It is also advisable to be holding stocks that investors generally have faith in. These stocks tend to be mostly held by institutions and are good dividend payers e.g. BAT, EABL, BBK, NMG and KCB.

However, I will be liquidating these should the the market really PLUNGE and switch to those shares that investors tend to dump whenever there is panic in the market. These include MSC and KQ as when the market recovers this is where MOST money will be made. The last bear cycle saw MSC move from below 3 all the way UP to 15 and KQ from 16 to OVER 65 by way of example.
mwanahisa
#6 Posted : Monday, March 28, 2011 4:25:37 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Muthawamunene wrote:
Though very pessimistic, i hope your prediction comes true. But i doubt we will get past 3500 points. And if it does, the agriculturals will be the main cause and not the counters you've listed above.


@MwM, Agriculturals are a very small proportion of the NSE. They can fall to zero and it would not worry too many investors. I guess, I am one of the few with a relatively huge portion of my portfolio there and it is only about 10% although I am striving to get it to 20%.
Muthawamunene
#7 Posted : Monday, March 28, 2011 4:35:41 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2011
Posts: 264
Location: Nairobi
mwanahisa wrote:
It's possible for the market to fall to the level you have cited but I think it is unlikely.

All the same a good strategy would be to have plenty of cash and/or other assets that one can bring into the market if the NSE does indeed plunge to the levels you are anticipating.

It is also advisable to be holding stocks that investors generally have faith in. These stocks tend to be mostly held by institutions and are good dividend payers e.g. BAT, EABL, BBK, NMG and KCB.

However, I will be liquidating these should the the market really PLUNGE and switch to those shares that investors tend to dump whenever there is panic in the market. These include MSC and KQ as when the market recovers this is where MOST money will be made. The last bear cycle saw MSC move from below 3 all the way UP to 15 and KQ from 16 to OVER 65 by way of example.


This i like.
@mwanahisa Thank you for the clarification.
mwanahisa
#8 Posted : Monday, March 28, 2011 4:39:27 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Muthawamunene wrote:
This i like.
@mwanahisa Thank you for the clarification.


You are welcome.
Cde Monomotapa
#9 Posted : Monday, March 28, 2011 7:10:41 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Experiencd 2,500 points in 08.yawn...
the deal
#10 Posted : Monday, March 28, 2011 7:22:57 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Experiencd 2,500 points in 08.yawn...

Cde 08 was PEV, the Credit crunch...i dont expect 2012 to be the same...!smile smile
Cde Monomotapa
#11 Posted : Monday, March 28, 2011 7:33:55 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
the deal wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Experiencd 2,500 points in 08.yawn...

Cde 08 was PEV, the Credit crunch...i dont expect 2012 to be the same...!smile smile

Then why will the NSE go to 3,200?
mlennyma
#12 Posted : Tuesday, March 29, 2011 9:02:35 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,191
Location: nairobi
Mondays are bad market days but the nse pulled up some 9 points.is this a passing cloud or a +ve week?
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#13 Posted : Tuesday, March 29, 2011 12:04:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Experiencd 2,500 points in 08.yawn...

@Cde, the NSE never went below 3,000points in 2008. Its lowest was on Oct 29th 2008 when it touched a 4 year low of 3,106 points.
However, the worst was yet to come and in 2009, March 4th 2009, it hit a 5 year low of 2,363 ponts. During the same week, the Dow inched below 7,000 points, its first time then in 12 years!
March 2009, exactly 2 years ago, will go down as my worst investing month since Baks took over power in 2003!
@SufficientlyP
Cde Monomotapa
#14 Posted : Tuesday, March 29, 2011 12:15:57 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Experiencd 2,500 points in 08.yawn...

@Cde, the NSE never went below 3,000points in 2008. Its lowest was on Oct 29th 2008 when it touched a 4 year low of 3,106 points.
However, the worst was yet to come and in 2009, March 4th 2009, it hit a 5 year low of 2,363 ponts. During the same week, the Dow inched below 7,000 points, its first time then in 12 years!
March 2009, exactly 2 years ago, will go down as my worst investing month since Baks took over power in 2003!

Thanks.
jerry
#15 Posted : Tuesday, March 29, 2011 12:35:55 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Experiencd 2,500 points in 08.yawn...

@Cde, the NSE never went below 3,000points in 2008. Its lowest was on Oct 29th 2008 when it touched a 4 year low of 3,106 points.
However, the worst was yet to come and in 2009, March 4th 2009, it hit a 5 year low of 2,363 ponts. During the same week, the Dow inched below 7,000 points, its first time then in 12 years!
March 2009, exactly 2 years ago, will go down as my worst investing month since Baks took over power in 2003!

Thanks.

>>march 2009 was a moment of great opportunity just as Obama put it. I'll never forget that. You don't expect to make money during planting season(bear). You can only make money during time of harvesting(bull) if you had planted.
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
bwenyenye
#16 Posted : Tuesday, March 29, 2011 12:41:13 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/24/2007
Posts: 1,805
jerry wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Experiencd 2,500 points in 08.yawn...

@Cde, the NSE never went below 3,000points in 2008. Its lowest was on Oct 29th 2008 when it touched a 4 year low of 3,106 points.
However, the worst was yet to come and in 2009, March 4th 2009, it hit a 5 year low of 2,363 ponts. During the same week, the Dow inched below 7,000 points, its first time then in 12 years!
March 2009, exactly 2 years ago, will go down as my worst investing month since Baks took over power in 2003!

Thanks.

>>march 2009 was a moment of great opportunity just as Obama put it. I'll never forget that. You don't expect to make money during planting season(bear). You can only make money during time of harvesting(bull) if you had planted.


@ Jerry,

Quite the contrary. You make money when you buy. Not when you sell.
I Think Therefore I Am
Tommy
#17 Posted : Tuesday, March 29, 2011 2:58:36 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 12/9/2010
Posts: 894
Location: Nairobi
And BTW, There is a sell off at Coop bank counter. I wonder what has triggered it. as per rich, at 2.58pm The supply is 1,454,500 and the demand is 460,300.
Don't wait for the Last Judgment. It happens every day. ~Albert Camus, The Fall, 1956
bartum
#18 Posted : Tuesday, March 29, 2011 5:46:33 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/11/2010
Posts: 1,011
Location: nairobi
turnover today was just but too much, what does it imply. A response please
mwanahisa
#19 Posted : Tuesday, March 29, 2011 7:17:55 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Tommy wrote:
And BTW, There is a sell off at Coop bank counter. I wonder what has triggered it. as per rich, at 2.58pm The supply is 1,454,500 and the demand is 460,300.


Yes, to my delight! I started my re-entry into this counter and managed to get a decent amount at the days lows 16.00-16.05. However it recovered somewhat and was trading at 16.50 at the close. I am replacing the counter as I sold it off completely at the 20/= shortly before results. I hope I am not getting in too early, but one has to take a chance sometimes.
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