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We are in a Bear Market: Whats your Strategy?
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the deal
#1 Posted : Monday, March 28, 2011 1:10:17 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
I'm a perennial optimist i always get nauseated when somebody mentions the word "Bear" to me. For starters a Bear is a prolonged declined in stock value, weather i like it or not i have to admit the NSE is on a bear run. Companies have been posting double digit/record profits yet we have not seen a similar response in terms of share price movement.

I attribute the current bear run to the current political impasse, the country is caught in.

So whats my strategy?

http://contrarianinvestingkenya.blogspot.com/
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QW25071985
#2 Posted : Monday, March 28, 2011 1:25:27 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/25/2011
Posts: 946
One word for me : DEFENSIVE STOCKS.
That where ur money shld be at .
Using wazua stockprofiler look at all those stocks that did well during the recession and credit crunch.that where your hard money shld be.forget bargain hunting in a bear market coz u dnt know where the stocks will settle @
so if u ask me YES there's money to be made in a bear market only if you buy DEFENSIVE STOCKS.
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Impunity
#3 Posted : Monday, March 28, 2011 1:52:38 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,330
Location: Masada
@QW which are some of these defensive stocks?
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.
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Wendz
#4 Posted : Monday, March 28, 2011 1:56:29 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/19/2008
Posts: 4,268
QW25071985 wrote:
One word for me : DEFENSIVE STOCKS.
That where ur money shld be at .
Using wazua stockprofiler look at all those stocks that did well during the recession and credit crunch.that where your hard money shld be.forget bargain hunting in a bear market coz u dnt know where the stocks will settle @
so if u ask me YES there's money to be made in a bear market only if you buy DEFENSIVE STOCKS.


But will defensive stocks make you money when the bull shows up? me thinks, look for a share whose fundamentals are good but its at its lowest in price... ... these shares will soar when the bull hits the ground... Personally, i would go for KK and KPLC..

Athi River doesnt look so bad either.... I wonder what is exciting it so much today! Any news?
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Muthawamunene
#5 Posted : Monday, March 28, 2011 2:00:48 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2011
Posts: 264
Location: Nairobi
QW25071985 wrote:
One word for me : DEFENSIVE STOCKS.

Actually, those are two words. but i forgive you

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Cde Monomotapa
#6 Posted : Monday, March 28, 2011 2:21:37 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Muthawamunene wrote:
QW25071985 wrote:
One word for me : DEFENSIVE STOCKS.

Actually, those are two words. but i forgive you


Lolest!!
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2012
#7 Posted : Monday, March 28, 2011 3:34:56 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
My strategy is to hold strong counters that cannot lose more than 15% in the worst bear and can gain more than 30% in a normal bull. I still maintain that what we have is an artificial bull misinformed by politics.

BBI will solve it :)
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QW25071985
#8 Posted : Monday, March 28, 2011 3:41:20 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/25/2011
Posts: 946
@ muthawa.... U keep talkin nonsence there when ur portfolio is bleeding like a teenage gal who broke her virginity.
U shld be buying the high yeild defensive stock to ride out these temporary bear.
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Muthawamunene
#9 Posted : Monday, March 28, 2011 4:26:55 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2011
Posts: 264
Location: Nairobi
and the way shez filling up. Its like a girl at puberty. Dont forget tuko na wewe kwa pride of africa and that green elephant of ours (coop). If yours has changed then you must have taken a loss with you. My exposure to the market is very minimal. So it may be bleeding, but i can sure survive without it. Capital gains is not my concern, future prospects and dividends is all i want.

Relax, budah, dnt be so uptight. take time to laugh once in a while.
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Genghis Khan
#10 Posted : Monday, March 28, 2011 5:01:25 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/5/2010
Posts: 335
Location: Nairobi
Cash

Stay out of sight till the bears are fed... come out and feed on the carcasses...

The tricky part is coming out @ just the right time... too soon you could run into a bear... too late and other scavengers will have had the best pickings!

"I'd rather be lucky than clever... every time!" - ME
"The problem is not what we don't know... it's what we know for sure that just ain't!" - MARK TWAIN
"Space we can recover... time never!" - NAPOLEON BONAPARTE
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simonkabz
#11 Posted : Monday, March 28, 2011 5:26:03 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2007
Posts: 8,776
Location: Cameroon
@qw, I think cash is king in a bear, not OFFENSIVE stocks
TULIA.........UFUNZWE!
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bwenyenye
#12 Posted : Monday, March 28, 2011 5:46:14 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/24/2007
Posts: 1,805
Pesa iko kwwa mfuko. Well... until later in the year when guys sell as they fear the election crises that the usual suspects are already creating!
I Think Therefore I Am
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VituVingiSana
#13 Posted : Monday, March 28, 2011 5:53:49 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,221
Location: Nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Muthawamunene wrote:
QW25071985 wrote:
One word for me : DEFENSIVE STOCKS.

Actually, those are two words. but i forgive you

Lolest!!
Hesabu na Kiingereza ni ngumu...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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erifloss
#14 Posted : Monday, March 28, 2011 6:02:30 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
'Bulls make money, BEARS MAKE MONEY, Pigs get slaughtered' Gordon Gekko. Someone somewhere always makes money, take an example of OCH today or guys who have started or will make a kill on betting against the usd.
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
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Muthawamunene
#15 Posted : Monday, March 28, 2011 6:41:25 PM
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Joined: 1/3/2011
Posts: 264
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Muthawamunene wrote:
QW25071985 wrote:
One word for me : DEFENSIVE STOCKS.

Actually, those are two words. but i forgive you

Lolest!!
Hesabu na Kiingereza ni ngumu...

manze acheni kuiingilia qw, mtafanya aanze kunidiss facebook. kila mtu hukosea grammar
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hisah
#16 Posted : Monday, March 28, 2011 7:10:26 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Defensive stocks so far - City Trust, NMG, Limuru Tea, BAT - I'm looking at those that have not lost more than 15% since the bear started to feast...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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QW25071985
#17 Posted : Monday, March 28, 2011 7:55:20 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/25/2011
Posts: 946
Ooooops . thought defensive stocks was quite obvious, as @ hisah has said

they also include ARM , WTK and NMG.they are a good place to park your money to ride out the bear..

and bytheway whenever defensive stocks start rallyin better know there a problem and the bear is starting to get a grip on the market as is the case.
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the deal
#18 Posted : Monday, March 28, 2011 8:23:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Me thinks its not yet time to b all defensive...its still wait and see game...it all depends if the Ocampo6 will to the Hague...if they dont...then expect a mass exodus from the foreigners and there will be an annihilation at the NSE so lets wait for 7 April...
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youcan'tstopusnow
#19 Posted : Monday, March 28, 2011 9:03:32 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Don't try to time the market. Just buy gradually.
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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For Sport
#20 Posted : Monday, March 28, 2011 9:31:48 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 12/23/2010
Posts: 1,229
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Don't try to time the market. Just buy gradually.


This works for me. I’m pathetic at timing. Have been investing a regular amount on a monthly basis. Will keep buying all the way to the bottom of this bear.
Main focus is on blue chips, particularly those whose price is way up there in a normal market.
Will be adding me some beer, some banks (BBK, KCB) and maybe some oil – stocks i’ve been holding for some time, and will be happy to hold anytime.

Also keeping a piggy bank (my war chest) in the hope that the doom enough of us are predicting for next year at the nse comes to pass.

When the market turns up, I’ll stop buying and watch people chasing the price up (and starting threads on this and that bus or plane taking off). I have time on my side.

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