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Stocks At Times Are Not Predictable
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2008 Posts: 4,449
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RULE OF LAW vs NSE - If Martha Karua starts leading or closing up the lead in opinion polls, the market will likely head north or simply stabilise...
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/22/2008 Posts: 1,139
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Seles83 wrote:It is completely insane to take a Mid/longterm positions currently in the stockmarket: Below are my reasons...
- North Africa Crisis has damned the foreign investor confidence in Africa market..majority of hedge funds have hold back..reviewing their positions and portofolios..
- Famine / Drought situation in Kenya discourages comsumer spending and household expenses are sky rocketing.
- Crude Oil effect...100% of Fuel imported..ripple effects???
- The Deflation of Kenya Shillings by CBK.
- Endless Political bickering of political chiefs
- ICC and Ocampo Effect..
- 2012 Political reallignment and political uncertainity..Kenyans are temporarly insane during this period.
Guys, use stop loss to protect your gains and principal..
Enjoy trading... stop loss may not be the best option considering that this is a temporarily global problem.on the contrary,this is the best time to accumulate ARM,Co-op,Centum and the like. "You're not supposed to be so blind with patriotism that you can't face reality. Wrong is wrong, no matter who says it". Malcolm X
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/19/2008 Posts: 4,268
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Burning Spear wrote:Seles83 wrote:It is completely insane to take a Mid/longterm positions currently in the stockmarket: Below are my reasons...
- North Africa Crisis has damned the foreign investor confidence in Africa market..majority of hedge funds have hold back..reviewing their positions and portofolios..
- Famine / Drought situation in Kenya discourages comsumer spending and household expenses are sky rocketing.
- Crude Oil effect...100% of Fuel imported..ripple effects???
- The Deflation of Kenya Shillings by CBK.
- Endless Political bickering of political chiefs
- ICC and Ocampo Effect..
- 2012 Political reallignment and political uncertainity..Kenyans are temporarly insane during this period.
Guys, use stop loss to protect your gains and principal..
Enjoy trading... stop loss may not be the best option considering that this is a temporarily global problem.on the contrary,this is the best time to accumulate ARM,Co-op,Centum and the like. You took it out of my lips.... short of moving out of the NSE completely, how do you stop loss on all counters?..... and for some, the losses are neck high you'll actually be hanging yourself in the process....! I'd say, at best, buy to average downwards, or at worst, just hold. Sell, if it is a do or die.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,259 Location: Nairobi
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These are not AAA bonds! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 2/17/2010 Posts: 47 Location: Nairobi
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Now what is the case against Coop not being a Blue chip? it may be expensive, yes for now, but certainly not out as a growth stock. This is a long term buyer's market People who look for easy money invariably pay for the privilege of proving conclusively that it cannot be found on this sordid earth
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/21/2010 Posts: 514 Location: Nairobi
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I think the only option that i have right now is to hold and rest. NO BUYING NO SELLING my money is safer in the bank or on Govt Bills/Bonds. Complete ANNIHILATION is what i'm seeing here. 'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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erifloss wrote:Seles83 wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:I have had it with this foreignor talk! Woo foreignr this foreignr that, NO! We should also build local investor awareness, participation & capacity! Wht r those so calld fund managers doing in Upperhill? forko jembe! The Kenya Budget is almost 1 Trillion, 60% of that monies is local revenues...At 5000 NSE Index (listed companies are worth more than 1 Trillion).. For NSE to have another bull rally...more than 300 billions fresh monies is needed.. Your guess is as good as mine...Foreign investors.have almost 65% control of market direction. :) :) @Cde, i agree with you. Look at SA its churning out black dollar millionaires every other day the reason being that these guys are internally creating demand for their shares at the JSE in return foreigners are trooping in but not as the primary drivers. Guys should watch Wall street 2. Alot of lessons to be learnt. Amen to that! Let's keep talking money and investments wherever we go. I think these topics have been stigmatised for much too long!!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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ecstacy wrote:RULE OF LAW vs NSE - If Martha Karua starts leading or closing up the lead in opinion polls, the market will likely head north or simply stabilise... !! MARTHA KARUA FOR PRESIDENT !!
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/9/2007 Posts: 288 Location: OZ
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Wendz wrote:Burning Spear wrote:Seles83 wrote:It is completely insane to take a Mid/longterm positions currently in the stockmarket: Below are my reasons...
- North Africa Crisis has damned the foreign investor confidence in Africa market..majority of hedge funds have hold back..reviewing their positions and portofolios..
- Famine / Drought situation in Kenya discourages comsumer spending and household expenses are sky rocketing.
- Crude Oil effect...100% of Fuel imported..ripple effects???
- The Deflation of Kenya Shillings by CBK.
- Endless Political bickering of political chiefs
- ICC and Ocampo Effect..
- 2012 Political reallignment and political uncertainity..Kenyans are temporarly insane during this period.
Guys, use stop loss to protect your gains and principal..
Enjoy trading... stop loss may not be the best option considering that this is a temporarily global problem.on the contrary,this is the best time to accumulate ARM,Co-op,Centum and the like. You took it out of my lips.... short of moving out of the NSE completely, how do you stop loss on all counters?..... and for some, the losses are neck high you'll actually be hanging yourself in the process....! I'd say, at best, buy to average downwards, or at worst, just hold. Sell, if it is a do or die. Technically speaking a serious trader makes two requests to the broker..Buying price and exit price.. If the market is doing great...revision of stop loss is upwards to shield gains..on the contrary you should never revise your stop loss downwards to accommodate more losses.. The killer of almost all investors is emotions...Greed & Hope.., i.e. Greed that COOP might touch 25 bob, or hope that Coop might hit 21 bob again. Now for those in catch 22 positions..Averaging out may be the solution...but just like Leverage..you play it wrong you end up more negative gearing.. Enjoy trading folks..one rule stands >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Sheep and Pigs always get slaughtered.. More monies, more problems...
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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ecstacy wrote:With the construction boom & mortgage demand regardless of foreign investors, eyeing HFCK... Na usisahau KCB (S&L) GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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if the ocampo 6 get ferried to the Hague smoothly and provided Kenya does not pull out of the ICC then some of the political risk will be trimmed.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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the deal wrote:if the ocampo 6 get ferried to the Hague smoothly and provided Kenya does not pull out of the ICC then some of the political risk will be trimmed. How has the Namibian market been performing this year? GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: User Joined: 5/9/2010 Posts: 1,418 Location: Nai
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@ hisah @ all @ all techies ( t.a) today (21 march monday)we lost 63 point on just 6 million shares . me i think the market operators are trying to pull this market down...basically we can see from the volumes that people dnt want to sell. indeed what we hard was a relief rally and i am expecting even lower prices.... that was a guy in this forum who was sayin we buy in increments as the market goes down and i think thats the best option right now... first quarter gdp shld be coming out soon and know if this bear is indeed founded in strong reasons/fundermentals or irrationality.i back the irrationality view. Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:the deal wrote:if the ocampo 6 get ferried to the Hague smoothly and provided Kenya does not pull out of the ICC then some of the political risk will be trimmed. How has the Namibian market been performing this year? The contagion is everywhere...i think foreign funds view Africa as one...its down 7.5% in 2011 http://www.bloomberg.com...quote?ticker=FTN098:IND
My picks there are 1. FNB Namibia-H1 2011 profits up 22% to kSH 3B, dividend Ksh 4, trailing PE 6.77 Way better than NSE banks 2. Trustco-Trailing PE 3.81, this guys have a unique mobile insurance product, more like Mpesa they recently expanded into Zim and Botswana...Kenya soon.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,259 Location: Nairobi
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@thedeal - Wow on FNB. I love TrustCo. I met them a few years ago. Ngumu guys! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/21/2010 Posts: 514 Location: Nairobi
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Got shocked, at Namibia Stock exchange guys are offering alternatives on payment of dividends by either scrip or cash. Guys like me would always go for Scrip. Why can't they do that here? Check this out, good info! http://www.nsx.com.na/divi_render.php?e_id=58'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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qw25041985 wrote:@ hisah @ all @ all techies ( t.a) today (21 march monday)we lost 63 point on just 6 million shares . me i think the market operators are trying to pull this market down...basically we can see from the volumes that people dnt want to sell.
indeed what we hard was a relief rally and i am expecting even lower prices....
that was a guy in this forum who was sayin we buy in increments as the market goes down and i think thats the best option right now...
first quarter gdp shld be coming out soon and know if this bear is indeed founded in strong reasons/fundermentals or irrationality.i back the irrationality view. Fundamentals are still strong. However when technicals and psychology/sentiment go the other way, rationale is thrown out the window. This is why I expect another fat-tail - a price disconnect from reality... So more discounts are on the cards.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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