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Athi River Mining FY2010 ARM results
muganda
#1 Posted : Wednesday, March 16, 2011 9:57:28 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,906
Did I miss it or why is there no buzz on ARM results? Definitely better than Bamburi though share still trades at a generous multiple.

Turnover increases 16% (cement up 22%, fertilizer up 44%)
Group Profit after Tax increases 23%
Earnings per Share up 23% to 8.00

http://www.nse.co.ke/newsite/pd...11/Announcements/ARM.pdf
the deal
#2 Posted : Wednesday, March 16, 2011 10:10:55 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Better than Bamburi but with PE at a sky high 21 theres nothing to get excited about.
Gordon Gekko
#3 Posted : Thursday, March 17, 2011 11:27:49 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
Showing up as 1.03% on dps/price on my spreadsheet. The only one worse is NIC (Ignore Portland that had zero dividend). But NIC gave bonuses which mitigates this ratio, so why should I hold ARM?
mwanahisa
#4 Posted : Thursday, March 17, 2011 12:05:19 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Gordon Gekko wrote:
Showing up as 1.03% on dps/price on my spreadsheet. The only one worse is NIC (Ignore Portland that had zero dividend). But NIC gave bonuses which mitigates this ratio, so why should I hold ARM?


Holders of ARM don't seem to care for the dividend and appear to be immune to the high PE on the share. My guess is that they are eyeing the massive increase in capacity expected by next year, especially from the new plant in Tanzania.

My own view is that the price will not grow by a huge margin, as future growth in profitabilty appears to have been already factored in the current price.
shauriyako
#5 Posted : Thursday, March 17, 2011 1:47:34 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 6/17/2010
Posts: 71
Location: Kenya
At these price and P/E levels the only way to excite the market is to do a split and/bonus. I am persuaded to believe that this could well happen in the coming year. Reason - the share seems to be quite illiquid at these levels and expensive as well. They are also holding close to 4B in reserves. I have held this one for close to seven years and I think I want to sit tight and get rewarded before I take a walk. Your thoughts anyone...Drool Drool Drool
When we wake up in the morning, we have two simple choices. Go back to sleep and dream, or wake up and chase those dreams. The choice is yours! .
JabaBoeku
#6 Posted : Friday, March 18, 2011 3:52:19 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/28/2008
Posts: 53
@shauriyako - am with you on this one. Staying put and watching this space!
VituVingiSana
#7 Posted : Friday, March 18, 2011 3:54:52 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,259
Location: Nairobi
Chances are very high that they will do a split but the PER is very high. The growth potential is also high but huge debt + increasing competition from 'new' producers like CATIC, Mombasa Cement, Sanghi, etc...

Also Bamburi is not lying still, they have opened Hima in Uganda.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
shauriyako
#8 Posted : Friday, March 18, 2011 5:57:23 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 6/17/2010
Posts: 71
Location: Kenya
I may not have the actual contribution made by the fertiliser division to the bottom line but fertiliser sales grew by 44% against cement's 22%. As long as the population is growing the demand for food will grow with it. The fertiliser usage in kenya is way below the world average-the only way fertliser demand can go is up.
Yes there is increasing competition which I believe can be mitigated to some level through diversification. I think ARM strength could just be in their diversification strategy.
When we wake up in the morning, we have two simple choices. Go back to sleep and dream, or wake up and chase those dreams. The choice is yours! .
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