wazua Mon, Aug 4, 2025
Welcome Guest Search | Active Topics | Log In

Access Kenya..Projecting the numbers
ProverB
#1 Posted : Friday, March 04, 2011 11:00:49 AM
Rank: Veteran


You have been a member since:: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
Considering Half year published results..assuming that in same way they compare to similar half last year is a projection of the full year...what is to be expected? ..totally based on paper results..ignoring "market technicals" and unquantifiable projections..

p.s...I'm aware how fallible this premise is.. smile

(figures in '000)
Turnover down 17% = Kshs 1,707,000.00
EBITDA up 54% = Kshs 514,000.00
Thus EBITDA Margin = 30.11%
compared to 2009 of 16.2%..assuming cost of sales item is as projected in half year results

PBT down 55% = Ksh 82,040.00

PAT down 59% = Kshs 63,757.00



Current share price = Kshs 8.90
Market Cap = Kshs 1,848,135,800.00

EPS projected = Kshs0.30
EPS annual growth = -60.5%

Projected ratios

ROA = PAT/Ave total assets = 3.7%..for every 1.00 in assets..access expects to generate 3CENTS in profit. Sad

ROE = PAT/Ave Shareholders' Equity = 5.45% ..for every Shilling of shareholders equity that AccessKenya has had over this year..projected to earn back only 5CENTS!!.. LOL!!

ROCE = PAT/ Capital Employed = 3.4% Sad


Add price factor... current share price kshs8.90

p/e = price/eps = 29.67?????..for every projected 1.00 in earnings buyers of the share today are paying 29.67 bob!!! How now? Brick wall

peg = pe/eps growth = -0.49Sad Sad Sad
..negative growth always hurts.

PSR = market cap/Turnover = 1.082 ..at 8.90 per share today..you are paying 1.08 bob for every shilling in projected revenue.. Sad


Actual Full year results are due last week of this month..
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
VituVingiSana
#2 Posted : Friday, March 04, 2011 11:40:24 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,223
Location: Nairobi
@proverb - LOL... Nice but IMHO... a waste of time for now! I would only look at this as a play for the fiber networks they have installed!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
ProverB
#3 Posted : Friday, March 04, 2011 11:58:20 AM
Rank: Veteran


You have been a member since:: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
VituVingiSana wrote:
@proverb - LOL... Nice but IMHO... a waste of time for now! I would only look at this as a play for the fiber networks they have installed!


forward p/e..assuming..of 29 is just crazy!!...for it to come to about 12 p/e it has to pull a stunt for an eps equal to last year's and they are already off by over 50%..

..or better still..price falls to 3.60! smile ;-) ..now that i would buy!
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
Papa Investor
#4 Posted : Friday, March 04, 2011 2:49:53 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 6/3/2010
Posts: 96
Access is in a serious strategic quandary but luckily the guys have one strategic asset that is no easy to replicate...the fibre already laid down in Nairobi...hope someone buys them to actualise this value...
Gordon Gekko
#5 Posted : Friday, March 04, 2011 4:15:53 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
From my own very pedestrian point of view.

I live in a neighbourhood has has in the last few years largely converted itself from residential to SoHo.

Access main target (I assume) is the SoHo market.

My neighbourhood has been inundated by the Wananchi cable and the assumption is that all the SoHos have moved to them. Who wouldn't when 1 MB full time for a month is 1000/-?

On that score, Access has no future in my books.
muganda
#6 Posted : Friday, March 04, 2011 5:19:38 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,906
Good one @ProverB.
Reminds me of a post I made in Aug 2010 postulating the company's value is 600/700m. Seems the stars shift in my favour...
VituVingiSana
#7 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2011 2:52:22 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,223
Location: Nairobi
Safaricom has AK beat by a mile!
http://www.nation.co.ke/.../-/10d4y5x/-/index.html

Last kicks of a dying horse...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
hisah
#8 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2011 4:57:03 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
VituVingiSana wrote:
Safaricom has AK beat by a mile!
http://www.nation.co.ke/.../-/10d4y5x/-/index.html

Last kicks of a dying horse...


AK has fallen off the corporate high horse and is now chasing retailers just like Barclays when Equity appeared... smile

Now if only safcom could get pressed to lower their high horse data rates.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
VituVingiSana
#9 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2011 9:40:07 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,223
Location: Nairobi
How will Access compete when Airtel comes out with their 3G [another price war I hope!]...?

I use Safaricom for data but I love to pay less!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mlennyma
#10 Posted : Monday, August 01, 2011 7:11:53 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,191
Location: nairobi
Why are some companies so mean with performance updates??no Q1 No signs of H1 ama walifilisika??
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
KenyanLyrics
#11 Posted : Monday, August 01, 2011 9:18:20 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/16/2010
Posts: 906
Location: Nairobi
Access is shutting down home.co.ke by the way:

http://www.techmtaa.com/...-down-home-co-ke-rumour/
mlennyma
#12 Posted : Friday, August 05, 2011 9:51:03 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,191
Location: nairobi
Something has finally comeup.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
selah
#13 Posted : Friday, August 05, 2011 10:11:51 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
mlennyma wrote:
Something has finally comeup.


WHAT?
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
mlennyma
#14 Posted : Friday, August 05, 2011 10:19:10 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,191
Location: nairobi
Material announcement.am perusing
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Sober
#15 Posted : Friday, August 05, 2011 10:19:46 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
[quote=KenyanLyrics]Access is shutting down home.co.ke by the way:

http://www.techmtaa.com/...down-home-co-ke-rumour/[/quote]

shutting down home portal. i thought closing shop...i am foreseeing a buyout here
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
Impunity
#16 Posted : Friday, August 05, 2011 10:24:10 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,330
Location: Masada
selah wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Something has finally comeup.


WHAT?


There is a corporate announcement in the offing.
This bus may just take off again for the second time this year!
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.

Users browsing this topic
Guest
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Copyright © 2025 Wazua.co.ke. All Rights Reserved.