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Time to enter KQ?
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2008 Posts: 4,449
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KQ is now holding at KES 39.50/= and possibly a rights issue in the offing, is it the time to (re)enter KQ? Can it get any lower?
Your thoughts?
Thank you.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2008 Posts: 4,449
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Their financial year also ends in the near future 31st March 2011. Marginal growth expected..
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
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Can it get lower? Yes... Already trading at below NAV... I am spoilt for choice [not enuff cash] with Kenol, Williamson, KQ, Unga... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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As long as oil is acting up, I still see scope for the price testing 30 despite the NAV discount and oversold technicals. This 2008 feeling is nagging me a lot. I hope we don't see a return of the credit crunch... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2008 Posts: 4,449
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@VVS - True. I find KQ & Kenol oversold.
At the end of THIS MONTH the ICC three-judge ICC bench of Ekaterina Trendafilova, Hans-Peter Kaul and Cuno Tarfusser is expected to rule on Mr Moreno-Ocampo's application seeking summons against the 'Ocamp Six'. Political temperatures may rise & some foreigners as per standard sell...this could present the perfect entry point...
hmmm...I wonder what result the NSE wants?!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2008 Posts: 4,449
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hisah wrote:As long as oil is acting up, I still see scope for the price testing 30 despite the NAV discount and oversold technicals.
This 2008 feeling is nagging me a lot. I hope we don't see a return of the credit crunch... If you may, pls expound.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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ecstacy wrote:hisah wrote:As long as oil is acting up, I still see scope for the price testing 30 despite the NAV discount and oversold technicals.
This 2008 feeling is nagging me a lot. I hope we don't see a return of the credit crunch... If you may, pls expound. The oil vs equities correlation is now -0.5. That happened when global stocks topped in Oct 2007 & early March 2008. And here we are in March 2011...$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/16/2009 Posts: 994
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If we're to see a return of the crunch, and then add that to the election fever that will inevitably catch up with us, I see 2011 and 2012 as very dull indeed. I hope iam wrong. Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
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Rank: User Joined: 5/9/2010 Posts: 1,418 Location: Nai
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hisah wrote:ecstacy wrote:hisah wrote:As long as oil is acting up, I still see scope for the price testing 30 despite the NAV discount and oversold technicals.
This 2008 feeling is nagging me a lot. I hope we don't see a return of the credit crunch... If you may, pls expound. The oil vs equities correlation is now -0.5. That happened when global stocks topped in Oct 2007 & early March 2008. And here we are in March 2011... Yep . this is definitely worrying .Read up below : http://regator.com/p/247...lation_of_oil_to_stocks/Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
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Rank: User Joined: 5/9/2010 Posts: 1,418 Location: Nai
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VituVingiSana wrote:Can it get lower? Yes...
Already trading at below NAV...
I am spoilt for choice [not enuff cash] with Kenol, Williamson, KQ, Unga... that's what making it sensible to add to KQ right now . Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/12/2010 Posts: 1,199 Location: Eastlander
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ecstacy wrote:KQ is now holding at KES 39.50/= and possibly a rights issue in the offing, is it the time to (re)enter KQ? Can it get any lower?
Your thoughts?
Thank you. Speculation time.. just on results bein better than last year..plus since they pride on hedging..current oil highs must be having them smiling but since revaluation is coming up soon...they better wish oil stays high all through next year..or they'l have a repeat of 2009..  ..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/15/2008 Posts: 206
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KQ's time is yet to come, i think i would buy as a long term strategy (3yrs onwards). my guess is KQ will still fall in the near term. prediction: buy @ 35/= Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
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- KQ's net assets will jump at 83/$ [The forex assets > liabilities] - High fuel will hurt the margins but if KQ can pass on fuel surcharges then greater KES Revenues [90% sales in forex]. - This is when the smaller players might face problems allowing KQ to dominate the local [regional] market. This is NOT a plus. I like competition. - KQ focuses on Africa growth which continues expanding. In 2011, KQ is expanding/increasing flights to many East, South & Central Africa destinations. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 1/13/2010 Posts: 85 Location: Nairobi
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Aviation Industry Outlook
The airline industry body IATA cut its forecast for 2011 global airline profits on Wednesday as higher demand failed to fully offset higher costs, mainly of rising oil prices.
IATA said it now expected global airlines to show a net profit of USD$8.6 billion, down from USD$9.1 billion forecast in December, after a 2010 profit of USD$16 billion, revised up from December's forecast of USD$15.1 billion.
IATA represents some 230 airlines comprising 93 percent of scheduled international air traffic.
Mambo yetu sii mzuri sana!!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/2/2009 Posts: 26,328 Location: Masada
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Watch your fingers,word is the Group HR director has just tendered his resignation effective 1-Mar-2011. Things seems to be elephant.  Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
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@govmusili - This will separate the men from the boys! Not good but if airline travel slacks off then the prices will start falling for Jet-A1 [Some airlines are testing alternates] Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2008 Posts: 4,449
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Decided to double my KQ holding at current prices.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/12/2010 Posts: 1,199 Location: Eastlander
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ecstacy wrote:Decided to double my KQ holding at current prices. ?? Based on what? Results release is in the first week of june. ...allow my flash back..to june 2010.. ..forgive me.. just bored.. ProverB wrote:understanding Kenya Airways?
..comparing 2010 to 2009
Average Price March 2010 Kshs 58.50
Revenues 2010 Kshs 70,743,000,000
Revenue Growth -1.51%
Price-to-sales March 2010 0.38
Operating Income Growth -54.50
Operating Margin 2010 2.60
Operating Margin 2009 5.63
PBT Growth (paper loss in 09) -147.16%
PBT Margin 2010 3.78
PAT Growth 2010 -149.84
ROE (Return on Equity) 10.96
ROCE(Return on Capital Employed) 2.78
P/E @ price of 58.50 13.33
Price to Book 1.46
Div Yield 1.71
before i buy, i ensure;
1. Financial Statements;
*Revenues are growing over time
*Profits are increasing (operating, before tax, and after tax) and better than peers//and atleast 3 year improving averages
*Improving Profit margins over 3 years
*Profits as percentage of Assets, Shareholders’ equity better than that of peers..ROA and ROE and ROCE..higher than 15%..over three years
2. Investment Valuation
*Low price-to-sales ratio (PSR); preferably below 1..but compared to peers
*Low Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio
*Low price-to-book value especially if company is heavily reliant on physical assets e.g. manufacturing companies or companies operating within heavy capitalization industries.
3. Technical analysis
*Share is liquid enough to be easily available or easily sold but also scarce enough to prevent value dilution.
*Demand and supply volumes during trading periods. That said... kq is nice to speculate..nice for really longterm..like retirement for 20 something year old.. but for watu small longterm window..miaka mbili au tatu..i think there are better opportunities elsewhere. Bored.  ..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2008 Posts: 4,449
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ProverB wrote:ecstacy wrote:Decided to double my KQ holding at current prices. ?? Based on what? Results release is in the first week of june. ...allow my flash back..to june 2010.. ..forgive me.. just bored.. ProverB wrote:understanding Kenya Airways?
..comparing 2010 to 2009
Average Price March 2010 Kshs 58.50
Revenues 2010 Kshs 70,743,000,000
Revenue Growth -1.51%
Price-to-sales March 2010 0.38
Operating Income Growth -54.50
Operating Margin 2010 2.60
Operating Margin 2009 5.63
PBT Growth (paper loss in 09) -147.16%
PBT Margin 2010 3.78
PAT Growth 2010 -149.84
ROE (Return on Equity) 10.96
ROCE(Return on Capital Employed) 2.78
P/E @ price of 58.50 13.33
Price to Book 1.46
Div Yield 1.71
before i buy, i ensure;
1. Financial Statements;
*Revenues are growing over time
*Profits are increasing (operating, before tax, and after tax) and better than peers//and atleast 3 year improving averages
*Improving Profit margins over 3 years
*Profits as percentage of Assets, Shareholders’ equity better than that of peers..ROA and ROE and ROCE..higher than 15%..over three years
2. Investment Valuation
*Low price-to-sales ratio (PSR); preferably below 1..but compared to peers
*Low Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio
*Low price-to-book value especially if company is heavily reliant on physical assets e.g. manufacturing companies or companies operating within heavy capitalization industries.
3. Technical analysis
*Share is liquid enough to be easily available or easily sold but also scarce enough to prevent value dilution.
*Demand and supply volumes during trading periods. That said... kq is nice to speculate..nice for really longterm..like retirement for 20 something year old.. but for watu small longterm window..miaka mbili au tatu..i think there are better opportunities elsewhere. Bored. Taking advantage of possible share upward mobility to cost average.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@proverb. wow You just us how to value a company. @vvs. I like the way you focus on the business and not the share price. True value investing....im done praising u on this, its just impressing to read about it n see someone actually practising value investing diligently. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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