Seeing the impressive performance by Equity, will safaricom surprise its greatest critics, the like of @vvs & @kularaha, and report a positive figure given that Mkesho must be doing quite well not forgeting its grip on DATA.

When will they announce the results, is it MARCH or MAY.

My hunch is they will announce a flat or slightly better revenues and maintain the same dividend payout (20cts) to avoid mass investor exit. This will surprise people, but it has already been factored in thus the share slide which is pricing the future prospects. From the next fiscal year 2011-2012, the revenues will dip with Airtel getting into data (3G) and MNP (mobile number portability). The other murmurs in the telco market grapevine is a tie up or buy out of one telco (YU by MTN). If the rumour is confirmed, then MTN is a tougher competition than Airtel, thus the current price swoon on the safcom counter. Airtel group is more cash rich than MTN, but strategy-wise, MTN beats them hands down. MTN would easily start a talent war which is something safcom has somehow been able to survive with increasing competition.

Compare the MTN group financial and prospects in Africa, then check out the Airtel prospects for Africa. As for safcom, a talent war would be expensive to afford going by the two groups financial muscle.

@selah - I think Safaricom will be OK 2010-11.
Good 1H when Airtel was not quite in the picture.
2H saw explosion in data use [IDEOS + only 3G provider]

The 'problem' is the future i.e. 2011-12 if Airtel comes in with 3G

BTW, I have nothing against Safaricom the firm... just do not like the higher charges! If Safaricom falls to 3.50, I will take another look.

I am debating it... whereas I am going into [cash permitting] into KQ & KPLC at these prices! Lower than NAV.

@selah - 4G is not even in all 'developed' markets... It will not happen overnight for Safaricom. Also the 3G is not always stable in Nairobi so they need to improve 3G first! Or make sure 4G is stable...

The problem with having a 3g spectrum is the cost of maintaining the network, given that the system now supports not only cell phones but also pc and laptops.Pricing for data will not go the voice way anytime soon the price war for data would affect the industry in a very crashing way.

@VVs every 10yrs the spectrum is upgraded so 4G in the next few yrs will be rolled out by all telcos.

saf remains a strong buy at 3.50

@vvs, of late it seems you are buying safcom, say no?

[quote=VituVingiSana]Telkom revenues drop
http://www.businessdaily...2/-/i78amk/-/index.html[/quote]

Given that its revenue only dropped by 2.8% having lost most of it subscribers and market share it goes without saying safaricom will surprise many once it announces its full year report.

The way Rene menza has started courting the PM it seem his strategy of using the price war to cut Safaricoms dominance is not working as he had anticipated, worse it has contributed in making it one man war since YU is bleeding profusely from this war.

I think the way to go is data and value additional services. Most of the telcos in developed markets went through the same phase but what separated men from boys was data.
Was checking Vivendi's performance and it had a growth of 4.4% which in that kind of a market is huge and its highest growth was on its internet business. The winner in all this in the end will be in value added quality services. Safaricom should be more afraid of MTN than any Airtel.