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Kengen H1 2011 results PBT up 11%
obiero
#1 Posted : Monday, February 28, 2011 7:17:49 PM
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Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,765
Location: nairobi
Kengen has surely posted an above average performance.

COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; IMH 5,000 ABP 35.55; KQ 604,200 ABP 6.96; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
obiero
#2 Posted : Monday, February 28, 2011 7:30:46 PM
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Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,765
Location: nairobi
see link below. sitaki muniite mzembe!

http://us.mobile.reuters...SWEB213720110228?ca=rdt



COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; IMH 5,000 ABP 35.55; KQ 604,200 ABP 6.96; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
Cde Monomotapa
#3 Posted : Monday, February 28, 2011 8:29:31 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
A good set of numbers esp the jump in gross profit and operating profits.however the doubling in finance costs blew the high (c/o PIB I presume). Moving on..healthy liquidity ratio of 1.4x, tremendous cash generation of 7.9B up from -ve 100M, capex of 13B (so PIBO is being used ASAP!), another 4.7B into GoK Bonds. Closing cash balance...9.4B. Nevertheless, i suspect i'm in for a beat down kesho but with such a healthy BS I am marshalling a large mop!! Short term risk is when it fails to rain this coming season.
Cde Monomotapa
#4 Posted : Monday, February 28, 2011 8:32:18 PM
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Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Full set of KenGen's numbers are on www.nse.co.ke
VituVingiSana
#5 Posted : Monday, February 28, 2011 11:47:23 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,215
Location: Nairobi
@cde - I am staying clear of KenGen coz they have high fixed costs but if the rains fail then they have to absorb these costs without corresponding revenue.

Loans have to be paid no matter how bad the 'rains'...

I prefer KPLC who will pass through the cost of thermal generation & whose loans are much smaller vs KenGen.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Cde Monomotapa
#6 Posted : Tuesday, March 01, 2011 12:27:27 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
VituVingiSana wrote:
@cde - I am staying clear of KenGen coz they have high fixed costs but if the rains fail then they have to absorb these costs without corresponding revenue.

Loans have to be paid no matter how bad the 'rains'...

I prefer KPLC who will pass through the cost of thermal generation & whose loans are much smaller vs KenGen.

Please note that KPLC collects the fuel costs on behalf of thermal generators who in clude Kengen, Rabai etc (KPLC is a transmitter n distributor) OTW the generators would have closed down a long time ago and the whole country would be in darkness. If u r looking for a hedge for oil own Kengen and or KPLC. In SA it is different whre Eskom has to absorb/hedge flactuations in coal e.t.c on its own hence the problems it is in. Here in Kenya consumers pay for it..they say better expensive elec than no elec.all together smile the rain for me is just to make sure all plants r available & running at capacity along with the recent 120MW Kipevu 2 thermal from Kengen. Tutalipa na damu, hahaha! My summary judgement on KPLC and KenGen is that this infamous ICT boom haitawashwa na maji. Hehehe.
VituVingiSana
#7 Posted : Tuesday, March 01, 2011 12:44:01 AM
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Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,215
Location: Nairobi
@cde - KenGen can recover forex & fuel surcharges but not for the lack of generating capacity due to lack of water...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Cde Monomotapa
#8 Posted : Tuesday, March 01, 2011 12:50:22 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
@VVS arguing along the lines of who has lower finance costs currently then KPLC wins. In terms of fixed costs & capex they are both the same as it is almost equally expensive to setup & maintain power plants as it is the national grid. However, a lot more debt is headed KPLC's way as that was part of the whole point of the Rights coz those Pref.shares scared away potential creditors. Nevertheless, these 2 companies ensure sound sleep for its investors as the moat around them is HUGE and they lack substitutes in the foreseeable future. smile
Cde Monomotapa
#9 Posted : Tuesday, March 01, 2011 12:54:53 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
VituVingiSana wrote:
@cde - KenGen can recover forex & fuel surcharges but not for the lack of generating capacity due to lack of water...

Very true & hence my being categorical that that is the short term risk. Thre is still enough hydro to see us through April by then i'll know what to do.
VituVingiSana
#10 Posted : Tuesday, March 01, 2011 1:25:09 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,215
Location: Nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@cde - KenGen can recover forex & fuel surcharges but not for the lack of generating capacity due to lack of water...

Very true & hence my being categorical that that is the short term risk. Thre is still enough hydro to see us through April by then i'll know what to do.
Maybe not. Water is 'released' or 'stored' for reasons other than power production. IMHO, we need the water more for food production then electricity [normally these go hand in hand but not always]...

We need a lot of rain to fill up the dams. The situation is not as bad as 2009 but not good either...

Of course, the politicians have stopped trying to 'recover' the Mau from the likes of moi & cronies!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Cde Monomotapa
#11 Posted : Tuesday, March 01, 2011 1:56:38 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Hehehe..fault capitalism but the only dam i'm concernd abt now is Masinga. The other stuff is even further out of my control. Nevertheless, more than oil going up is our food production, affordabilty & availabilty. So it better rain and well, thereafter pple better organise themselves. R u a proponent of Karl Marx by any chance @VVS?
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