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Earnings Suprise Zone
Cde Monomotapa
#41 Posted : Thursday, February 24, 2011 2:31:37 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
VituVingiSana wrote:
2 days ago... sellers abounded... Today, buyers are showing up... The Random Walk...

Now that the Uganda elections have been concluded peacefully & kibz got his behind caned by Raila, Wako, Mutula & the most important group Kenyan people... calm seems to have returned!

Now as kibz used to say... kazi iendelee...

LOL! Easy on my granpa Obaks..he is the wiser of all.. Moving on..UG is showing resurgence with UGX showing renewd strength V Kes. My SBU will b lookng even better. Point of concern though, oil @ USD120 pb! Ama tujikaze hawa ma tyrant wakwende. Opec sez markets r well supplied, wish I could short oil!
VituVingiSana
#42 Posted : Thursday, February 24, 2011 2:39:51 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,221
Location: Nairobi
If oil prices continue rising we will all be hurt coz Uganda's oil does not flow for another 2-3 years. 5 years if he wants a refinery built!

Kenya gets screwed no matter what with high oil prices... We need to stop cutting trees so we have better hydro lakini explain that to politicians!

OPEC can say what they want but crude oil is not fungible i.e. light & sweet is the best but not all countries have that... Uganda's oil [I think] is heavy/waxy & sour so more expensive to process...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Jamani
#43 Posted : Thursday, February 24, 2011 3:05:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
VituVingiSana wrote:
If oil prices continue rising we will all be hurt coz Uganda's oil does not flow for another 2-3 years. 5 years if he wants a refinery built!

Kenya gets screwed no matter what with high oil prices... We need to stop cutting trees so we have better hydro lakini explain that to politicians!

OPEC can say what they want but crude oil is not fungible i.e. light & sweet is the best but not all countries have that... Uganda's oil [I think] is heavy/waxy & sour so more expensive to process...


Entice southern sudan to change the pipeline direction...
VituVingiSana
#44 Posted : Thursday, February 24, 2011 3:13:03 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,221
Location: Nairobi
Jamani wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
If oil prices continue rising we will all be hurt coz Uganda's oil does not flow for another 2-3 years. 5 years if he wants a refinery built!

Kenya gets screwed no matter what with high oil prices... We need to stop cutting trees so we have better hydro lakini explain that to politicians!

OPEC can say what they want but crude oil is not fungible i.e. light & sweet is the best but not all countries have that... Uganda's oil [I think] is heavy/waxy & sour so more expensive to process...


Entice southern sudan to change the pipeline direction...
Already in the works! South Sudan has made it clear they want another route for everything...

We should start building Lamu Port immediately... It will open up the NEP as well as serve Ethiopia & Sudan...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#45 Posted : Thursday, February 24, 2011 7:13:37 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
The only way KQ can counter the effects of this high oil prices is to hike fares..anyways after a year of not breaking even..i have decided to let go...i got burned..i admit...i'm taking a 14% loss with me plus costs.
VituVingiSana
#46 Posted : Thursday, February 24, 2011 11:24:26 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,221
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
The only way KQ can counter the effects of this high oil prices is to hike fares..anyways after a year of not breaking even..i have decided to let go...i got burned..i admit...i'm taking a 14% loss with me plus costs.
Pole sana! I see that airlines have already started increasing the Fuel Surcharge. They do not raise fares but increase the fuel surcharge. Of course, it all ends up being the same thing...

KQ will survive the higher fuel prices but I think the other smaller operators [East African Safaris, Fly540] will be in huge trouble.

Lucky for KQ, the largest market [Africa] has no choice but to use KQ if they want to travel...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
ProverB
#47 Posted : Friday, February 25, 2011 7:18:46 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
the deal wrote:
The only way KQ can counter the effects of this high oil prices is to hike fares..anyways after a year of not breaking even..i have decided to let go...i got burned..i admit...i'm taking a 14% loss with me plus costs.


must have been quite an epiphany dude! smile smile
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
Genghis Khan
#48 Posted : Friday, February 25, 2011 2:21:28 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/5/2010
Posts: 335
Location: Nairobi
[quote=VituVingiSana]"Let national interest guide banks when lending"

LOLest... Not in Kenya [& not according to most Wazuans especially those who own Bank Stocks]

http://www.businessdaily.../-/d27ouuz/-/index.html[/quote]

i think this borders on communism (aka subsidizing poverty). Communism does not tolerate the idea of markets. Markets keep the balance in the universe.

It is the work of govt tax all according to their means and invest according to their needs... thus distributing opportunity not wealth.

I wish i could share with PROFESSOR Njuguna my limited knowledge of economics:

1. COFs in Kenya are low for most banks because most depositors do not view their account balances as investments... like my mpesa account (0% interest) which is a service not an investment vehicle.

2. they are also low because banks are not desparate for deposits and depositors are not really demanding higher rates. Its not like the fuel cartels... depositors have numerous options when it comes to money...

3. lending rates are high because of the rapid growth of SMEs and microenterprises in the country. i have seen small businesses with such short business cycles that with 500k assests at start of year do revenues of 20m... some of these guys borrow from shylocks at rates as high as 200%... when a bank offers 1.6% monthly on oustanding balances its free money.

4. Inflation Risk:
KES average lending rates are around 16%.
USD, EUR, GBP are around 10%.

NB
a good 95% of wealth in kenya is created by SME and juacali. who is njuguna speaking to? i think what he should do is make finance available rather than cheap... that is what kenya needs.

Banks are so risk averse that they will give a corporate with a balance sheet of 1B an unsecured line at below 10% but not an innovator with a growing business at 20%.

Kudos to banks should be left to conduct business in the most profitable way possible... gok should tax them and invest in women enterprise fund & youth fund...
"I'd rather be lucky than clever... every time!" - ME
"The problem is not what we don't know... it's what we know for sure that just ain't!" - MARK TWAIN
"Space we can recover... time never!" - NAPOLEON BONAPARTE
Genghis Khan
#49 Posted : Friday, February 25, 2011 2:23:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/5/2010
Posts: 335
Location: Nairobi
[quote=VituVingiSana]"Let national interest guide banks when lending"

LOLest... Not in Kenya [& not according to most Wazuans especially those who own Bank Stocks]

http://www.businessdaily.../-/d27ouuz/-/index.html[/quote]

i think this borders on communism (aka subsidizing poverty). Communism does not tolerate the idea of markets. Markets keep the balance in the universe.

It is the work of govt tax all according to their means and invest according to their needs... thus distributing opportunity not wealth.

I wish i could share with PROFESSOR Njuguna my limited knowledge of economics:

1. COFs in Kenya are low for most banks because most depositors do not view their account balances as investments... like my mpesa account (0% interest) which is a service not an investment vehicle.

2. they are also low because banks are not desparate for deposits and depositors are not really demanding higher rates. Its not like the fuel cartels... depositors have numerous options when it comes to money...

3. lending rates are high because of the rapid growth of SMEs and microenterprises in the country. i have seen small businesses with such short business cycles that with 500k assests at start of year do revenues of 20m... some of these guys borrow from shylocks at rates as high as 200%... when a bank offers 1.6% monthly on oustanding balances its free money.

4. Inflation Risk:
KES average lending rates are around 16%.
USD, EUR, GBP are around 10%.

NB
a good 95% of wealth in kenya is created by SME and juacali. who is njuguna speaking to? i think what he should do is make finance available rather than cheap... that is what kenya needs.

Banks are so risk averse that they will give a corporate with a balance sheet of 1B an unsecured line at below 10% but not an innovator with a growing business at 20%.

Banks should be left to conduct business in the most profitable way possible... gok should tax them and invest in women enterprise fund & youth fund...
"I'd rather be lucky than clever... every time!" - ME
"The problem is not what we don't know... it's what we know for sure that just ain't!" - MARK TWAIN
"Space we can recover... time never!" - NAPOLEON BONAPARTE
Aguytrying
#50 Posted : Friday, February 25, 2011 2:25:07 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@ the deal. Its a suprise you sold kq, you've been one of its hugest supporters. But boy what a time to sell, when its on a one yr low. I decided not to take the loss of selling kq. Coz i got in, at 50 something. I've been squashing its presence in my portfolio by not buying more and im very happy now its less than ten percent. Time is what i have. It serves as a reminder to me of never to board a reversing bus, among other lessons. All the best in your endeavours.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
groove
#51 Posted : Friday, February 25, 2011 3:50:04 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 2/1/2011
Posts: 10
@ Aguytrying & @ all wazuans. Speaking of boarding a reversing bus, is it a good time to board E.A. cables bus as it's been reversing the whole week & today it was trading @18.50 despite the announcement of a bonus of 1:4 and a dividend payout of 1 bob when book closure is on 18 mar ?
DON'T SELL YOURSELF SHORT
Fyatu
#52 Posted : Friday, February 25, 2011 3:55:24 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,820
Location: Nakuru
did anyone notice the flurry of activity at the COOP counter today
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
For Sport
#53 Posted : Friday, February 25, 2011 9:39:20 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 12/23/2010
Posts: 1,229
Portland's profits down - blames the price of clinker

Bamburi down - blames power costs.

Looks like the Industrials are set to disappoint this time around.
Gordon Gekko
#54 Posted : Saturday, February 26, 2011 8:06:39 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
For Sport wrote:
Looks like the Industrials are set to disappoint this time around.

Good for me as Im in the process of rebalancing my portfolio by moving some change from financials to industrials
Aguytrying
#55 Posted : Saturday, February 26, 2011 12:45:55 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
groove wrote:
@ Aguytrying & @ all wazuans. Speaking of boarding a reversing bus, is it a good time to board E.A. cables bus as it's been reversing the whole week & today it was trading @18.50 despite the announcement of a bonus of 1:4 and a dividend payout of 1 bob when book closure is on 18 mar ?

good question. The only reason to buy cables now would be for dividend and bonus. Profit to be made from capital gains is unlikely from now to when it does ex-bonus, ex-div.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
qw25041985
#56 Posted : Saturday, February 26, 2011 2:05:46 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
Gordon Gekko wrote:
For Sport wrote:
Looks like the Industrials are set to disappoint this time around.

Good for me as Im in the process of rebalancing my portfolio by moving some change from financials to industrials


you meant from industrials to financials...
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
VituVingiSana
#57 Posted : Saturday, February 26, 2011 3:01:25 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,221
Location: Nairobi
For Sport wrote:
Portland's profits down - blames the price of clinker

Bamburi down - blames power costs.

Looks like the Industrials are set to disappoint this time around.
No, this is specific to cement firms [ARM hasn't released results]. Since 2008, there are 2 new players + all existing players have increased capacity. ARM has expanded Kaloleni. Bamburi opened Hima in Uganda...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Gordon Gekko
#58 Posted : Saturday, February 26, 2011 5:27:05 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
qw25041985 wrote:
....you meant from industrials to financials...

No, I'm selling financials and buying industrials i.e have sold Equite and now waiting for KPLC at sub 21. NIC on the block at 55, might revise to 53 depending on the market next week.
qw25041985
#59 Posted : Saturday, February 26, 2011 6:20:09 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
Gordon Gekko wrote:
qw25041985 wrote:
....you meant from industrials to financials...

No, I'm selling financials and buying industrials i.e have sold Equite and now waiting for KPLC at sub 21. NIC on the block at 55, might revise to 53 depending on the market next week.


Mark my words you'll regret sellin member a.k.a equity and NIC .
Equity bank is in a very good position to blow out of the stables because 2007 high is just at 31.00 and ALL-TIME high is at 38.00 . Maybe you dnt know this but if a stock passes its ALL-TIME high there's no tellin where it'll stop.
Unless you want to say that equity bank cannot pass 38.00 then you made the right decision but we all know it will and next stop i dnt know coz technically there's no resistance after the ALL-TIME High
Or why did you think i bought k.c.b like i want a seat at the board.Coz the technical set-up is just tooooooo bullish (going up)..Not because i perused and deeply scrutinized their reports but the technical set-up past 24.00 is too good to leave out.
I have reiterated over and over again that guyz shld pic up as much as they can of k.c.b at below 24.00 ...coz cashing it after 24.00 is suicidal.
I'd rather you had even bought some NBK . coz it hasnt rallied and investors are starting to take note of it...
Co-Op bank is also another bank with a bullish set-up and past the ALL-TIME high of 22.00 will be very exciting for the stock...
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
VituVingiSana
#60 Posted : Saturday, February 26, 2011 8:11:36 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,221
Location: Nairobi
qw25041985 wrote:
Maybe you dnt know this but if a stock passes its ALL-TIME high there's no tellin where it'll stop.
I know. Simple. It will stop at the next ALL-TIME high. Prove me wrong.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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